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EFIMED Advanced course on MODELLING MEDITERRANEAN FOREST STAND DYNAMICS FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT SITE INDEX MODELLING MARC PALAHI Head of EFIMED Office

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20.8.20042 Forest stand development affected by Regeneration Growth of trees Mortality Models should be able to predict these processes which are affected by factors like Productive capacity of an area Degree to which the site is occupied Point in time in stand development

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20.8.20043 Site quality Defined as the yield potential for specific tree species on a given growing site key to explain and predict forest growth and yield and therefore for defining optimal forest management. Certain investments might be only justify in certain sites…

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20.8.20044 Assesing site quality Might be assessed directly or indirectly Indirect methods: topographic descriptors, location descriptors, soil types, presence of plant species, etc Direct methods: require the presence of the species at the location where site is evaluated - Why not using the volume-age relationship? m 3 ha -1 at a given age Site index, dominant height at an specified reference age; the height development of dominant trees in even-aged stands is not affected by stand density = in good sites height growth rates are high

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20.8.20045 Site index curves A family of height development patterns with a qualitative symbol or number associated with each curve usually the height achieved at a reference age Site index curves are the graphic representations of mathematical equations obtained by applying regression analysis to height age data 26 23 20 17 13 AGEHDOM 50,605395 102,489373 209,169787 3016,46173 4021,82125 5025,10701 6026,98154 7028,01996 8028,58086 9028,8691 10029 11029,03919 12029,0247 13028,97905 14028,91578 15028,84314 16028,76624

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20.8.20046 Many equations used Non-linear regression required

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20.8.20047 Data for site index modelling Derived from three sources: 1. Meaurement of height and age on temporary plots - Inexpensive, full range should be represented 2. Measurement of height and age over time: permanent plots - Many years, good dynamic data, expensive 3. Reconstruction of height/age through stem analysis - Immediately, expensive, good dynamic data

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20.8.20048 Methods for site index modelling 1.The guide curve method 2.The difference equation method 3.The parameter prediction method The guide curve method produces anamporphic site index curves and is usually used when only temporary plots are available The difference equation method requieres permanent plots or stem analysis data

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20.8.20049 Amamorphic versus Polymorphic

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20.8.200410 The guide curve method (1) AGEHDOM 50,605 102,4893 209,169 3016,461 4021,821 5025,107 6026,981 7028,019 8028,580 9028,860 10029,000 11029,039 12029,024 13028,979 14028,915 15028,843 16028,766 B oi = constant associate with the ith curve B 1 = constant for all curves

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20.8.200411 The guide curve method (2) Produces a set of anamorphic curves (proportional curves) Needs to be algebraically adjusted after fitting the equation, - such site index equations varies depending on which reference age is chosen

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20.8.200412 The difference equation method (1) Requires permanent plots or stem analysis data Flexible method, can be used with any equation to produce anamorphic or polymorphic curves First step: developing a difference form of the heigh/age equation being fitted Expressing Height at remeasurement (H2) as a function of remeasurement age (A2), initial measurement age (A1), and heigh at initial measurement (H1)

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20.8.200413 The difference equation method (4) Makes direct use of the fact that observations in a give plot should belong to the same site index curve Difference equtions traditionally obtained through substituting one parameter, which is site-specific, by dynamic information Substitution of the asymptote = anamorphic curves Substitution of other parameters = polymorphic curves Different approaches to obtain them ADA, GADA, equating… Dynamic equations representing a continuos four variable prediction system directly interpreting three dimensional surfaces without explicit knowledge of the third dimension

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20.8.200414 The difference equation method (2) A family of curves with a general mathematical form A = asymptotic parameter K= growth rate parameter m= shape parameter Where each individual height/Age curve has its own unique value of A (but we could also do it for k or m depending on which we assume is the site dependent parameter)

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20.8.200415 The difference equation method (3) - Example of obtaining the difference form, ADA approach

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20.8.200416 Final remarks Difference equation methods: Can compute predictions directly from any age-dominant height pair without compromising consistency of the predictions, which are unaffected by changes in the base age - Better than guide curve method Evaluating site index models: -Biological realism (asymptote, growth pattern, quality of extrapolations out of the age and site range of the data) - Fitting statistics (Mef, Mres, Amres, etc)

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20.8.200417 Exercise I 1. Derive a difference equation from the Hossfeld model assuming that parameter is b is the site dependent one

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20.8.200418 Exercise II 1. Open the SPSS file Site_stems and fit a non-linear regression model using the difference form of the Hossfeld model. Based on previous studies, initial values for a (between 10 and 10) and c (between 0,02 and 0,04). The asymptote of the model is equal 1/c 2. Fit now the McDill-Amateis equation (M= asymptote) - How we decide which one is better? Which model is better?

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Section 10.2-1 Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 10 Correlation and Regression 10-2 Correlation 10-3 Regression.

Section 10.2-1 Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 10 Correlation and Regression 10-2 Correlation 10-3 Regression.

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