1. Session 6 – Sample survey design and implementation G. Cantisani Freelance Expert in Population Data/Statistics UNECE Workshop on Migration Statistics Minsk, 28-29 May 2015

2. Contents (as from Section III.B) Structure and main references Definition of target population (and country of data collection) (III.B.1) Questionnaire design and contents (III.B.2) Sampling design (III.B.3) The whole survey process and other key phases (III.B.4) 2

3. 3  Main components of the whole survey process Topics of three initial sub-sections, descending from Section III.A Structure and main references Topics of fourth sub-section (more general description)

4. 4  Main reference of the proposed text Household migration surveys. Sample surveys collecting data through questionnaires administrated by interviews. Studying the determinants and consequences of international migration, in particular for emigration. Collection of retrospective data (but with more attention to recent events) for households with/without migrants and different categories of individuals (i.e. including ‘control groups’). Structure and main references

5. 5 Definition of target population (III.B.1)  Contents Classification of main types of surveys (one-way vs. both-way) by main topic of study (i.e. determinants and consequences), with summary identification of pros and cons. Critical/decisive aspects: Varying paths/histories of migration Threshold/cut-off periods Coverage or nationals/foreigners and the appropriate population categories (e.g., people ‘at risk’ of migration) Data collection on all household members (and eventually former members) Respondents to individual questionnaires Feasibility and costs issues for surveying in the countries of origin (O) and destination (D)  Main references: ILO-1997 & RB-2007

6. 6 Definition of target population (III.B.1)  Main conditions for one-way or both-way surveys Relevance of phenomena in the countries O and D. Number and combinations of main countries O and D (e.g., an important immigration country may present flows originating from a variety of countries of origin). Convergence of interests of countries of origin and destination (e.g., traditional countries of destination of migrants may wish to focus on the integration of ‘second and third generations’ more than the recently arrived migrants, in opposite to the main countries of origin of their immigrants). Feasibility of bilateral/multilateral cooperation initiatives. Availability of funds.

7. 7 Definition of target population (III.B.1)  Studying the determinants of migration a)Collecting data in the main countries of destination (D1, D2, D3) on samples of people who migrated there from O in the previous x years and data from non-migrants in O. b)Collecting data in the main country of destination (D) on samples of people who migrated there from O within the same period above and data from non-migrants in O. c)Collecting data in O only, in households with and without migrants, on former members of households who are current out-migrants (via proxy) and on potential migrants (via direct interview).  Appropriate focus: the situation of migrants when they left & situation of non-migrants at the average time migrants left

8. 8 Definition of target population (III.B.1)  Studying the consequences of migration a)Collecting data on non-migrants in the country O and data on migrants from O residing in the country D. b)Collecting data on non-migrants in several countries of origin (O1, O2, O3, …) and data on migrants from O1, O2, O3, … residing in D. c)Collecting data on the current status of out-migrants from O to D interviewing proxy respondents belonging to their households of origin and data on non-migrants in country O. d)Collecting data on non-migrants in D as well as migrants from O by direct interview undertaken in D.  Appropriate focus: the situation at the time of survey

9. 9  Main challenges (1) For one-way emigration surveys: Collecting data on current emigrants by interviewing members of their household still in the country of origin (proxy respondents, i.e. the heads of household, spouses left behind or another reference person). Given the detail of inquiry, this is much more relevant here than for the migration modules. Impact on completeness or quality of answers, in particular with respect of answers on personal behaviours or values. Definition of target population (III.B.1)

10. 10  Main challenges (2) For one-way emigration surveys: Identifying and collecting of data on the households that have migrated in their integrity (‘whole emigrated households’) In general not solved asking proxy respondents (e.g., neighbours, dormans, new occupants of house or local police). Both-way survey or panel approach as possible better solutions. Definition of target population (III.B.1)

11. 11  Main challenges (3) For all surveys: Sampling of households and selection of respondents, in particular with regard to: The rare frequency of migration in general, especially with focus on recent migration instead of lifetime migration The representativeness of regions and districts Definition of target population (III.B.1)

12. 12 Definition of target population (III.B.1)  Conclusions The determinants and consequences of migration are often studied in combination for mutually advising policy making. Given the funding and operational reasons, the household migration surveys are easier and more frequently implemented only in one country of origin or country of destination or a combination of these two places. Recommendation for a classical study of emigration from O to D: a survey in O covering both non-migrant households and migrant households & a survey in D covering households with migrants, what provides for the appropriate comparison groups.

13. 13 Questionnaire design and contents (III.B.2)  Main features and structure Relevance of well structured and complete questionnaires for successful surveys. Requirements widely discussed in international works, even in those specifically addressing surveying in developing and transition countries. Main converging principles: Clear distinction and eligibility of respondents to interviews Appropriate order of modules and questions Questions concise, clear and without ambiguities Wording of questions objective and neutral Adoption of skips between questions Short tools  Main references: ILO-1997, UNSD-2005 & RB-2012

14. 14  Main purposes To identify the household members (plus eventually the former members), family nuclei, reference person and relationships between all members, for undertaking the interview and in particular establishing the eligibility of people to answer to the different components and modules. To collect basic information on each household member through the Household Roster. To collect more detailed information on the specific categories of respondents or data collection topics through the separate modules. In the case of lack of existing data sources, to collect data on the social conditions of local communities or districts of the sampled households. Questionnaire design and contents (III.B.2)

15. 15  Coverage Case of migrants a)The modality and history of migration of individual migrant b)The demographic, economic and social situation of the migrant, household and community of origin immediately prior to migration c)The initial situation of the migrant in the country of destination d)The current situation of the migrant and his/her current household in the country of destination as well as the household of origin Questionnaire design and contents (III.B.2)

16. 16 Sampling design (III.B.3)  Contents General issues on sampling (e.g., sample methods, sampling frames) Specific approach proposed for the migration survey programme in CIS countries i.Stratification with disproportionate probabilities of selection of area units ii.Two-phase sampling of households in the Ultimate Area Units (UAUs)  Main references: ILO-1997, RB-2012, RB-2011, ILO-2008 & ILO- 2013 (with last two covering sampling for child labour surveys and elusive populations)

17. 17 Sampling design (III.B.3)  General issues Sampling as a fundamental issue as migrants are rare elements, especially for international and recent migration. Several conditions and specificities, depending on the purposes and availability of funds, capabilities and tools (e.g., sampling frames - from registers, population censuses, household surveys or expert opinions). Wide recognition of needs and challenges and continuous methodological developments (e.g., adoption of Snowball Sampling and Center Sampling Technique referred in III.A.2). Passage from probability sample (where every element has the same probability of selection, what allows an easy inference) to stratification with oversampling of areas with prevalence of migrants (facilitating the sampling of households with migrants).

18. 18 Sampling design (III.B.3)  Specific approach proposed for CIS countries i.Stratification with disproportionate probabilities of selection of area units Stratification is the division of population into sub-groups (strata) according to objective criteria or variables. Two options for stratification in migration surveys: % of migrants in the population % of households including migrants The method needs basic information (i.e. the % above) for each area unit from a population census or another source (sampling frame), then it is even possible to adopt a different solution in each stratum (e.g., urban vs. rural). Alternatively, the area units (provinces, districts and sectors as UAUs) may be selected progressively according to the (estimated) population sizes of places.

19. 19 Sampling design (III.B.3)  Specific approach proposed for CIS countries ii.Two-phase sampling of households in the UAUs Once the UAUs are selected, it will necessary To identify which households contain migrants and non- migrants, and To select and interview a part of them. Recommended procedure: To conduct a complete household listing operation and prepare lists of households with migrants and households without migrants for sampling. To sample from each list, oversampling households with recent migrants compared to non-migrant households. To carry out the interview within the sampled households.

20. 20 The whole survey process and other key phases (III.B.4) Source: UNSD 2005  Main references: ILO-1997, UNSD- 1998, UNSD- 2005, ILO-2008 & ILO-2013

21. 21  Survey preparation Focus on activities different from survey definition, sampling and questionnaire design, in particular the following: Preparation of survey tools (e.g., instructions manuals) Training of survey staff Pilot survey or pre-test Prevention of non-responses The whole survey process and other key phases (III.B.4)

22. 22 The whole survey process and other key phases (III.B.4)  Data collection Main focus Fieldwork staff/teams Transportation Communication Quality assurance (e.g., tasks of supervisors)

23. 23 The whole survey process and other key phases (III.B.4)  Data management and analysis Main focus Data entry Recode of variables (standard reformatted file) Weighting of sample data and estimation from sample (e.g., calculation of weights and sampling errors, solutions for under-coverage and non-response, …) Final weighted tabulation and data analysis Survey outputs

24. 24 Thank you for your attention