1. Topic 8: Energy, power and climate change 8.6 Global Warming

2. The majority of experts tend to agree that the enhanced greenhouse effect is behind global warming. Others have looked for different causes.

3. A range of reasons have been suggested to explain global warming. These include: 1)Changes in the composition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 2)Increased solar flare activity. 3)Cyclical changes in the Earth’s orbit. 4)Volcanic activity.

4. 1)Changes in the composition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. the burning of fossil fuels has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides and aerosols in the atmosphere the melting of permafrost regions in the world and deforestation have increased the concentrations of methane These greenhouse gases capture the infra-red radiation and re-radiates to the Earth causing climate changes

5. 2) Solar flare The Sun, being a variable star, has a major influence on the long-term and short-term changes in climate of the solar system The Sun, being a variable star, has a major influence on the long-term and short-term changes in climate of the solar system More sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise. These changes are complex phenomena and not very well understood. It is debatable if the pattern of global warming is consistent with the changes in solar activity. http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~schlossb/plasma/

6. 3) Cyclical changes in earth’s orbit The Earth’s precession (the Earth wobbles like a spinning top or gyroscope), obliquity (the Earth is tilted on its axis by 23.5°) and eccentricity (the Earth’s orbit around the Sun is not circular but rather elliptical) affect its orbit every 100 000 and 400 000 years which in term leads to climate change. So, while they are relevant at these time scales, they are perhaps not so relevant for the climate changes of, say, the last 200 years.

7. 4) Volcanic activity For many years, climatologists have noticed a connection between large explosive volcanic eruptions and short-term climatic change The explosion of Mt. Krakatau (Krakatoa) in Indonesia in 1883 caused two-thirds of a 45 km 2 island to be blown away and caused a tsunami that reached a height of 40 meters. The Sun was blue and green as fine ash and aerosols circled the equator in 13 days. This dust lowered global temperatures by as much as 1.2 °C in the year after the eruption and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888. Today, there are more than 60 active volcanoes.

8. The natural greenhouse effect works in order to keep the Earth’s temperature at 288 K. This makes life, as we know it, possible on Earth. The enhanced greenhouse effect refers to the increase in the world's average temperature due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities.

9. Increased Combustion of Fossil Fuels “Students should be aware that, although debatable, the generally accepted view of most scientists is that human activities, mainly related to burning of fossil fuels, has released extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.” THE LIKELY MAJOR CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING!!

10. Evidence? International ice core research produces evidence of atmospheric composition and mean global temperatures over thousands of years (ice cores up to 420,000 years have been drilled in the Russian Antarctic base, Vostok

11. The concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. (Source: US Environmental Protection Agency)

12. The Antarctic ice cores, in particular, extracted from a depth of about 3600 m over (frozen) lake Vostok in East Antarctica in 1998, have been thoroughly analyzed to reveal a connection between temperature changes and changes in carbon dioxide and methane concentrations. The ice cores give a detailed account of global climatic conditions over a time period spanning some 420 000 years.

13. Mechanisms that may increase the rate of global warming global warming reduces ice/snow cover, which in turn changes the albedo, to increase rate of heat absorption temperature increase reduces the solubility of CO 2 in the sea and increases atmospheric concentrations deforestation reduces carbon fixation.

14. Δ in ice and snow cover If ice and snow cover decreases… Ice and snow have a high albedo, which means the ratio between the incoming radiation, and the amount reflected is high. However, the land, which would be exposed, or the water that would be formed has a low albedo and as a result, more radiation would be captured resulting in an increase in the rate of heat absorption of the Earth.

15. Temperature Δ Temperature plays a major role in the rate of reaction and the solubility of gases in water. With an increase in temperature, the solubility of CO 2 in the waters of the Earth would be reduced and gaseous carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere would increase. Radiation absorbed by this greenhouse gas would then be re-radiated to the Earth’s land surface causing global warming. http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumb_52/1144338416BXt9iz.jpg

16. Deforestation Deforestation reduces carbon fixation in the carbon cycle. Through photosynthesis, plants take carbon dioxide from the air to make sugars and cellulose thus “locking up” or fixing the carbon dioxide. With increased deforestation, there is less plants to carry out this process and CO 2 concentrations would increase. http://farm1.static.flickr.com/51/133428648_24028e0537.jpg

17. Coefficient of volume expansion The coefficient of volume expansion is the fractional change in volume per degree change in temperature

18. ©IBO2007 One possible effect of the enhanced greenhouse effect is a rise in mean sea- level. ©IBO2007 http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/dal/lowres/daln194l.jpg

19. Possible reasons for a predicted rise in mean sea-level. The level of water in the sea is always varying. Many reasons contribute to this, for example varying atmospheric pressure, plate tectronic movements, wind, tides, flow of large rivers into the sea, changes in water salinity and others.

20. To melt a mass m of ice at 0 o C requires an amount of thermal energy Q = ml, where l is the specific latent heat of fusion of ice. Thus, to melt ice, energy must be provided, and therefore cooling results at the place from where this energy is removed. For the purposes of discussing changes in sea level, we must distinguish between land ice (ice supported on land) and sea ice (ice floating in sea water). The melting of ice

21. Sea ice, when melted, will not result in a change of sea level. This is a consequence of a principle of fluid mechanics known as Archimedes’ principle. The weight of the ice is equal to the weight of the displaced water and so when the ice melts it will occupy a volume equal to the volume of the displaced water (i.e. no change in sea level will come about). By contrast, land ice, when melted, will result in an increased sea level.

22. Overall, warming will, in general, result in a rise in sea level, not only because more land ice will melt but also because warmer water occupies a larger volume. The expansion of water is anomalous, however. Water will actually contract in volume as it is heated from 0 o C to 4 o C, and then will expand as the temperature is increased further from 4 o C. This means that the density of water is highest at 4 o C, a fact that is of considerable importance for life in lakes, rivers and oceans.

23. Given a volume V o at a temperature  o, the volume after a temperature increase of  will increase by  V given by  V =  V o  Where  is a coefficient known as the coefficient of volume expansion.

24. For water, the coefficient  actually depends on temperature, and so a given volume of water will change by different amounts even for the same temperature changes  depending on the initial temperature of the water.

25. Question 1 The area of the oceans of the Earth is about 3.6 x 10 8 km 2 and the average depth of water is about 3.7 km. Using a coefficient of volume expansion of water of 2 x 10 -4 K -1, estimate the expected rise in sea level after a temperature increase of 2 K. Comment on your answer. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/ocean1.jpg

26. The total volume of water in the oceans is approximately V o = A x d, where A is the area and d is the average depth. So V o = 3.6 x 10 8 x 3.7 = 1.33 x 10 9 km 3 = 1.33 x 10 18 m 3 The increase in volume is then:  V =  V o  = 2 x 10 -4 x 1.33 x 10 18 x 2 = 5.3 x 10 14 m³ Sea level will increase by an amount h such that (converting A to m 2 ) h =  V/A = (5.3 x 10 14 )/(3.6 x 10 14 ) = 1.5 m

27. Note… This estimate assumes a constant coefficient of expansion, uniform heating of all the water and does not take into account the initial water temperature. It also does not take into account the fact that, with a higher water temperature, more evaporation would take place, hence cooling the water. This estimate calculates the rise in sea level of the existing area of water. A rising sea would cover dry land and so the area of water would increase. This would decrease the height found in the estimate.

28. Identify climate change as an outcome of the enhanced greenhouse effect. http://www.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/rural-nz/sustainable-resource-use/climate/impact-on-industries/

29. Measures to Reduce Global Warming There is clearly an urgent need to stop the increase in all the greenhouse gases, and carbon dioxide in particular. What are some of the measures you can think of?

30. Measures to Reduce Global Warming Using fuel-efficient cars and developing hybrid cars further; Increasing the efficiency of coal-burning power plants; Replacing coal-burning power plants with natural gas- fired plants; Considering methods of capturing and storing the carbon dioxide produced in power plants (carbon capture and storage, CCS); Increasing the amounts of power produced by wind and solar generators; Considering nuclear power; Being energy conscious, with buildings, appliances, transportation, industrial processes and entertainment; Stopping deforestation.

31. International efforts to reduce the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Kyoto Protocol Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APPCDC). http://www.actnow.com.au/Opinion/Rudds_rapid_ratification_of_the_Kyoto_Protocol.aspx

32. The Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC An extremely important agreement towards cutting greenhouse gas emissions was reached in 1997, in Kyoto, Japan. The industrial nations agreed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% from the 1990 levels over the period from 2008 to 2012. The protocol allowed mechanisms for developed nations to use projects aimed at reducing emissions in developing nations as part of their own reduction targets. Endorsed by 160 countries, the protocol would become legally binding if at least 55 countries signed it. The non- ratification of the protocol by the USA and Australia has weakened the impact of the agreement.

33. APPCDC Unlike the Kyoto protocol, which imposed mandatory limits for greenhouse has emissions, the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APPCDC, or AP6) asked for voluntary reductions of these emissions. It was signed by the USA, Australia, India, the People’s Republic of China, Japan and South Korea in 2005. It is an agreement in which the signatory nations agree to cooperate in reducing emissions. It has been criticized as worthless because the reductions are voluntary. It has been defended because it includes China and India, major greenhouse gas producers, who are not bound by the Kyoto protocol.

34. IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has undertaken a major, comprehensive, detailed and scientifically impartial analysis of global climate. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) created the IPCC in 1988. While conducting no research of its own, the IPCC reports on technical, scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change using assessments of existing published scientific material. Its four reports in 1990, 1997, 2001 and 2007 have been instrumental in providing an accurate analysis of the global situation.