1. Food Security to 2040 What’s coming down the track? John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

2. Food security…... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012) … is universally applicable … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems

3. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

4. Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange … ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security “… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

5. Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

6. Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

7. Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change GHGs, albedo Factory emissions Emissions from transport and cold chain GHGs from cooking N cycle Eutrophic n, GHGs Factory effluentNOx from transport Waste P cycle P reservesDetergentsWaste Fresh water use IrrigationWashing, heating, cooling Cleaning foodCooking, cleaning Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing Paper/card Metal mining Invasive sppConsumer choices Atmos. aerosols DustShippingSmoke from cooking Chemical pollution PesticidesFactory effluentTransport emissions Cooking, cleaning Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

8. ? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY Production How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

9. ? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

10. Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati in India

11. Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

12. … and food distribution …

13. Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves. … and food safety. Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

14. Background Planetary Boundary concerns are clear But what’s coming down the track for food security?

15. http://faostat3.fao.org Prevalence of undernourishment % of world population

16. However, … ~ 1 billion people still hungry Asia & Pac ~ 525m SSA ~ 225m Developed ~ 15m LAC ~ 40m

17. “Vitamin D deficiency: thought to affect at least half the UK’s white population, up to 90% of the multi-ethnic population and a quarter of children” (Dec, 2012) ~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”

18. And food systems are also ‘failing’ a further ~2.5 billion of us! Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013 Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese. Australia: 60% of all adults are overweight or obese. England: 19% of Yr 6 children obese & 14% overweight. Shanghai: Over 200,000 (14%) children are obese

19. Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition: the ‘new normal’ “Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for granted.” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.

20. Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently >2.5 billion Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion Food security…... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

21. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently >2.5 billion CONSUMERS PRODUCERS Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Social, Political, Business, and Biophysical Environments

22. World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. 2013: 7.2 billion 2025: 8.1 billion 2050: 9.6 billion 2100: 10.9 billion Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!

23. Looking ahead $6,000 – $30,000

24. Dietary energy supply increases as incomes rise …

25. … leading to increases in consumption. (kcal/person/day)

26. Looking ahead... “unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years time”

27. 1 2250 - Too much - -- Too little -- Billions of people ----- Appropriate amount ----- (indicative; not to scale) 2345768109 2040 2015 2025 kcal/person/day consumption ------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount ---- ----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount --- Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ---- 2000 The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive Calorie consumption Annual UK NHS spend on diabetes alone increases from £10b to £17b over the next 25 years

28. Environmental Change will clearly affect food security

29. But how will this interact with Socioeconomic Change?

30. DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food Security Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability’ anlayses

31. Classic ConceptFood System Concept SocialNutritional Environmental EconomicEnterprise Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems

32. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm PRODUCERS FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food system and world view. Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations CONSUMERS

33. ?