1. POLITICS IN MEXICO LUIS ESTRADA lmestrad@weber.ucsd.edu Spring quarter 2005

2. Mexican Economic Miracle, 1940-1980 After expropriation of oil, WWII was a factor (attracting investment and multiplying clients After expropriation of oil, WWII was a factor (attracting investment and multiplying clients ISI: Import Substitution Industrialization (attracting external capital). Peso is ‘undervalued’ ISI: Import Substitution Industrialization (attracting external capital). Peso is ‘undervalued’ Raw materials in exchange of capital goods Raw materials in exchange of capital goods

3. Mexican Economic Miracle, 1940-1980 Exchange and interest rates are stable, just as inflation Exchange and interest rates are stable, just as inflation GDP growth of 6% annually 1940- 1980 on average GDP growth of 6% annually 1940- 1980 on average Rural to Urban Rural to Urban

4. Mexican Economic Miracle, 1940-1980 It became clear that the industries that had been built could only survive in the free-market with strong protectionism and tariffs It became clear that the industries that had been built could only survive in the free-market with strong protectionism and tariffs Stagnant industries and agriculture. Decreased productivity Stagnant industries and agriculture. Decreased productivity

5. Mexican Economic Miracle, 1940-1980 Large deficits are financed through external borrowing Large deficits are financed through external borrowing Before devaluating, inflation rises Before devaluating, inflation rises ‘Shared’ Development ‘Shared’ Development Solution in the ’70s: Oil (more borrowing) Solution in the ’70s: Oil (more borrowing) Oil Crisis, prices drop: bankruptcy Oil Crisis, prices drop: bankruptcy Concentration of wealth in fewer people Concentration of wealth in fewer people

6. Labor Organizations

7. Destape (Revelation) Tapado (possible successor) Tapado (possible successor) Member of the Revolutionary Family Member of the Revolutionary Family Candidate acclaimed by unanimity Candidate acclaimed by unanimity

8. Manuel Avila-Camacho

9. Miguel Alemán

10. Adolfo Ruiz-Cortines

11. Adolfo López-Mateos

12. Gustavo Díaz-Ordaz

13. Luis Echeverría

14. José López-Portillo