1. www.migration.org.za Jean Pierre Misago ACMS-University of the Witwatersrand Jean.Misago@wits.ac.za HSRC Seminar Pretoria, 30 June 2015 Xenophobic Violence in South Africa: Critical Reflections on Current explanations

2. www.migration.org.za Graduate degree programmes (Hons, MA, PhD) with students from across Africa, North America, and Europe; Research in 12 African countries on issues related to migration, urbanisation, human rights, development, governance, and social change; Partnerships in 4 continents; Provides research services and support to government, international organizations, local NGOs, and rights advocates. The African Centre for Migration & Society at Wits An internationally engaged; Africa-oriented; and African-based research and teaching centre dedicated to shaping academic and policy debates on migration, development and social transformation

3. www.migration.org.za Main Arguments Most current explanations are valuable in describing the socio-economic and political context but they fall short as scientific explanations for the occurrence of the violence Only a multivariate explanatory model can account for all the determinants of the violence

4. www.migration.org.za Methods A decade of ACMS quantitative and qualitative research; on-going PhD work All together, more than 30 case studies across the country (latest Soweto)  Focus on explaining violence and not attitudes  ‘Most similar systems’ approach to understand why violence in some areas and not in others

5. www.migration.org.za Conceptual clarifications Xenophobia =/= Xenophobic violence : Violence is not a quantitative degree of conflict (Blubaker et al. 1999). Attitudes are not a good predictor of behaviour  This discussion about causal explanations of xenophobic violence and not of xenophobia. Xenophobia or just criminality? Not mutually exclusive. Xeno violence is a bias-motivated crime Afrophobia? Does not pass empirical test

6. www.migration.org.za Current Causal Explanations: Not these….

7. www.migration.org.za Current Causal Explanations: These rather…. Can be grouped into 3 main categories:  Economic and material : Competition for scarce resources and opportunities; poverty, inequality, unemployment; Service Delivery Failures; Mass Influx and Inadequate Border Control (invoking The ‘threshold of tolerance’ hypothesis: the greater the numbers of migrants in a context of deep dislike, the more violent the reaction (Relative deprivation theory).  Historical, political and institutional : the legacy of apartheid (segregation, isolation policies, etc.), the impact of post-apartheid nation-building efforts and the failure to meet socio-economic expectations.  Psycho-social: cultural stereotyping, repressed historical trauma, culture of violence. Shortcomings:

8. www.migration.org.za Current Causal Explanations: Shortcomings Common and long standing: cannot explain violence in some areas and not in others with similar socio-economic conditions Reductionist, one-factor, mono-causal explanations: can be at best partial or incomplete.  Biggest problem: they do not seem to recognise their limitations. They claim to be all encompassing i.e. to account for all the elements of the causal chain.  What these explanations really do is to describe the conditions prevailing in affected areas; they do not explain how these conditions exactly lead to mass violence targeting foreign nationals.

9. www.migration.org.za Determinants of Xeno violence ( or elements of the violence causal chain ) Deprivation: real or relative Belief: that foreigners are the cause of the deprivation Collective discontent towards foreigners Micro-politics & political economy: instrumental motives of instigators Mobilization of the discontent: the trigger Governance and social controls: favorable opportunity structure for violence. “Nothing happens in out community if leaders do not want it”, Alex respondent

10. www.migration.org.za Conclusion: Towards a Multivariate Model of Xeno Violence

11. www.migration.org.za

12. Jean Pierre Misago ACMS-University of the Witwatersrand Jean.Misago@wits.ac.za HSRC Seminar Pretoria, 30 June 2015 Xenophobic Violence in South Africa: Critical Reflections on Current explanations