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For a scientific approach to extreme events Asymptotic analysis of typhoons Daniela Bianchi, Department of Physics, Univ. Of Rome “La Sapienza” Sergey.

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Presentation on theme: "For a scientific approach to extreme events Asymptotic analysis of typhoons Daniela Bianchi, Department of Physics, Univ. Of Rome “La Sapienza” Sergey."— Presentation transcript:

1 For a scientific approach to extreme events Asymptotic analysis of typhoons Daniela Bianchi, Department of Physics, Univ. Of Rome “La Sapienza” Sergey Dobrokhotov, Institute of Problem of Mechanics, Moscow Academy of Sciences Fabio Raicich, ISMAR, CNR Trieste Sergiy Reutskiy, Ukrainian Academy of Science, Kharkov Brunello Tirozzi, Department of Physics, Univ. Of Rome “La Sapienza”

2 Poleward heat transport

3 Wind system for water covered Earth

4 Main wind system (Northern summer)

5 Main wind system (Southern summer)

6 Cyclon and Anticyclon

7 Cyclogenesis at mid latitudes

8 Westerlies-Rossby wave

9 Nanmadol

10 Forecast without heat exchange

11

12 Sonca

13 Forecast without heat exchange

14

15 Kirogi

16 Real and computed trajectory with heat exchange

17 Real and forecast trajectory

18

19

20 Maslov decomposition (1/2) x is the difference among the running point and the typhoon center F is a function with the singularity in the origin of the square root type S is a quadratic function of the coordinates x with different eigenvalues f(x,t), g(x,t) are smooth functions Self-similarity and stability properties

21 Maslov decomposition (2/2)

22 Cauchy Riemann conditions and stability of perturbations

23 Perturbed solutions of SW equations (1/3)

24 Perturbed solutions of SW equations (2/3)

25 Perturbed solutions of SW equations (3/3)

26 Conserved structure of the solution (1/2)

27 Conserved structure of the solution (2/2)

28 CR conditions at the onset (1/2)

29 CR conditions at the onset (2/2)

30 CR conditions during the cyclon (1/2)

31 CR conditions during the cyclon (2/2)

32 Computation of the trajectory of the center of typhoons

33 SW+temp. eq. (1/2)

34 Sw+temp.eq (2/2)

35 Lax Wendroff Method (1/4)

36 Lax Wendroff method (2/4)

37 Lax Wendroff method (3/4)

38 Lax-Wendroff Method (4/4)

39 Stability of the vortex

40 Non stability of the vortex

41 Boundary conditions (1/3)

42 Boundary conditions (2/3)

43 Boundary conditions (3/3)

44 Neural Network (1/4)

45 Neural Network (2/4)

46 Neural Network (3/4)

47 Neural Network (4/4)

48 Hugoniot-Maslov Hierarchy 1/15

49 Hugoniot-Maslov Hierarchy 2/15

50 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 3/15

51 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 4/15

52 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 5/15

53 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 6/15

54 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 7/15

55 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 8/15

56 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 9/15

57 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 10/15

58 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 11/15

59 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 12/15

60 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 13/15

61 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 14/15

62 Hugoniòt-Maslov Hierarchy 15/15

63 More phenomenology (1/4)

64 More phenomenology (2/4)

65 More phenomenology (3/4)

66 More phenomenology (4/4)

67 End


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