1. "To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts, and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plant and animal life that can be put on a map.... Doing science is not such a barrier to feeling or such a dehumanizing influence as is often made out. It does not take the beauty from nature. The only rules of scientific method are honest observations and accurate logic. To be great science it must also be guided by a judgment, almost an instinct, for what is worth studying. No one should feel that honesty and accuracy guided by imagination have any power to take away nature's beauty." Robert A. MacArthur, 1972

2. DEF: The scientific study of the distribution & abundance of organisms and their interactions that determine their distribution & abundance Its vague Its boring It doesn’t capture the flavor of ecology What is Ecology the science of?

3. Something more captivating

4. Phainopepla & mistletoe Decorator crab 1) The fit of Form & Function

5. Deepest recorded dive of an Elephant Seal is 2,388 metres (7,835 ft)

6. Predator-prey interactions

7. http://homepages.ius.edu/RHUNT01/research/Graminella.htm Mutualisms Aphid-goldenrod-ant

8. 2) Species Diversity

9. 3) Out-of “Balance of Nature”

10. Environment Last Year: The Warmest Year On Record (Again) That makes 2010 the 34th consecutive year when the global temperature was above average.

11. Institute of Ecosystem (1998-2010) tudies

12. Oak-dominated forest experience frequent resource pulses in the form of acorn crops

14. AtAt S t+1 A (food-web) Model +

16. 050100150 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Nest daily mortality rate Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha)

17. S t+1 AtAt The Model expands ?when? - +

18. 050100150 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Nest daily mortality rate Rodent abundance (per 2.25ha) Bad years < 10% Good years ~ 65% Moderate ~ 20% Probability of fledging young: Translate into regional fluctuations in songbird densities w/respect to rodent/acorn densities

19. Rodents Nest predation If… then… Rodents Adult birds (t+1) The Breeding Bird Survey is a network of over 3000 sampling routes across NA ?

21. S t+1 AtAt - + -- When rodents common When rodents crash Two ways songbirds can lose Model

22. Survivorship of fledgling birds was lowest during a rodent crash

23. Part II : Using population models to examine the relationship between long-term population growth and masting dynamics 2000: = 1.028 - 1.267 1999: = 0.712 - 0.878 020406080100120 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Nest daily mortality rate Veery Rodent abundance (MNA)

24. 0102030405060708090100 Year 0 10 20 30 Crop size -5-4-3-201234 Ln (crop size) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Proportion per Bar (a) (c) Simulated masting dynamics

25. Acorns  rodents  nest predation rates  seasonal fecundity Acorns: simulated to match the range of variability (min-max) seen at IES Acorns  rodents: empirical relationships Rodents  nest predation: empirical relationships Nest predation  seasonal fecundity: formulation in Schmidt and Whelan (1998) Survival rates: estimated from the literature Prey-switching by raptors: juvenile survivorship declines 25% following crash of rodent population

26. 0.00.10.20.3 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Masting frequency Long-term growth rate Negative relationship Strong relationship Population increasing Population decreasing

27. Is variability in masting dynamics responsible for geographical differences in songbird population trends? Veery (Catharus fuscescens)

28. Forest regeneration and succession……….. Forest Destruction Gypsy mothsChestnut blight    A brief history (and future) of changes to eastern forests and mast-producing trees Climate Change; SOD Beech bark disease Declines in moth outbreaks?  ?  Extirpation of Pass. Pigeon 