Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama &

Published by Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama &"— Presentation transcript:

1 NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama & NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL Tim Fuller-RowellUniversity of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO Dusan OdstrcilUniversity of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO Vic PizzoNOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO Jimmy RaederSpace Science Center, University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire, NH

2 Lead Times in Forecasting ObservationsLead time Heliospheric disturbances at L1~30-50 min Coronal eruptions ~1-3 days Solar active regions ~3-5 days

3 Larger Lead Time of Geoeffectivity Predictions DAY 1DAY 2DAY 3 DAY 4  Probabilities of the solar eruption (A%), interplanetary shock (B%), and ejecta (C%), and geo-effectivity (D%) before the actual eruption  Pre-computed scenarios ready if actual eruption happens EARTH ACTIVE REGION EARTH SHOCK EJECTA ACTIVE REGION

4 Photospheric Magnetic Field CME Probabilistic Model 2006-12-102006-12-112006-12-122006-12-132006-12-09 C AR =E26S10 P CME = 16% R CME = 47 0 V CME = slow 2006-12-10 C AR =E13S10 P CME = 15% R CME = 49 0 V CME = slow 2006-12-11 C AR =E00S10 P CME = 13% R CME = 51 0 V CME = slow 2006-12-12 C AR =W13S10 P CME = 17% R CME = 52 0 V CME = slow 2006-12-13 C AR =W26S10 P CME = 15% R CME = 50 0 V CME = slow

5 CME Probabilistic Model CME Initial Parameters 2006-12-09 C AR =E40S10 P CME = 16% R CME = 47 0 Run 1 V=1000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 2 V=1000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 3 V=1000 km/s R = 60 0 Run 4 V=1500 km/s R = 20 0 Run 5 V=1500 km/s R = 40 0 Run 6 V=1500 km/s R = 60 0 Run 7 V=2000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 8 V=2000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 9 V=2000 km/s R = 60 0

6 CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

7 RUN 7: V = 2000 km/s, R = 20 0 RUN 4: V = 1500 km/s, R = 20 0 RUN 1: V = 1000 km/s, R = 20 0 ICME Propagation Ensemble Study RUN 2: V = 1000 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 3: V = 1000 km/s, R = 60 0 RUN 5: V = 1500 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 6: V = 1500 km/s, R = 60 0 RUN 8: V = 2000 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 9: V = 2000 km/s, R = 60 0

8 Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace

9

10 Ensemble Study All-Clear Conditions 12/0912/1112/1012/1212/1412/1512/13 SUN-EARTH Run 1 V=1000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 3 V=1000 km/s R = 60 0 Run 4 V=1500 km/s R = 20 0 Run 5 V=1500 km/s R = 40 0 Run 6 V=1500 km/s R = 60 0 Run 7 V=2000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 8 V=2000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 9 V=2000 km/s R = 60 0 EAST LIMB WEST LIMB 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% -100% Strength: Run 2 V=1000 km/s R = 40 0 0% - 25%

11 Ensemble Studies All-Clear Conditions 12/0912/1112/1012/1212/1412/1512/13 SUN-EARTH EAST LIMB WEST LIMB 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 25% -100% Strength: 0% - 25% 2009-12-09 12:00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run9 2009-12-11 12:00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run9 2009-12-10 12:00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run9

12 All-Clear Conditions Probabilistic Forecast 12/0912/1112/1012/12 12/14 12/1512/13 25% - 50 %0% - 25 %25% - 50 % Probability: Based on Observations of 2006-12-09 12:00 UT 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 Date of Disturbance at Earth Date of Eruption at Sun

13 Eruption Observed Prediction of ICME Parameters Lead Time ~ 1-2 days

14 Computational System at Univ. New Hampshire Meerkat: cluster of 40 PlayStation 3 game consoles Cluster is controlled from a quad-processor head node OpenGGCM has beedn ported to the cluster; runs > 5 times faster than on Opteron 246 nodes Zaphod cluster ENLIL has been ported on quad-processor head node; runs > 5 times faster than on devmoels-01 at SWPC

15 Solar Wind Velocity – Messenger/Mercury Flyby

16 Solar Wind Predictions – Streams at Earth

17 ENLIL-OpenGGCM: Shock Interaction with Magnetosphere Work in progress..

Download ppt "NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama &"

Similar presentations

Heliospheric Computations Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/Space Environment Center Solar MURI Team Meeting, Berkeley CA, December.

Heliospheric Computations Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/Space Environment Center Solar MURI Team Meeting, Berkeley CA, December.
Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Geomagnetic disturbances Yu.I. Yermolaev, N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Yu. Yermolaev Space Research Institute.

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Geomagnetic disturbances Yu.I. Yermolaev, N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Yu. Yermolaev Space Research Institute.
On the Space Weather Response of Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Sheath Regions Emilia Kilpua Department of Physics, University of Helsinki

On the Space Weather Response of Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Sheath Regions Emilia Kilpua Department of Physics, University of Helsinki
CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, USTC The Deflection of 2008 September 13 CME in Heliosphere Space ISEST, Hvar, Croatia,2013 June 17 Collaborators:

CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, USTC The Deflection of 2008 September 13 CME in Heliosphere Space ISEST, Hvar, Croatia,2013 June 17 Collaborators:
Interaction of coronal mass ejections with large-scale structures N. Gopalswamy, S. Yashiro, H. Xie, S. Akiyama, and P. Mäkelä IHY – ISWI Regional meeting.

Interaction of coronal mass ejections with large-scale structures N. Gopalswamy, S. Yashiro, H. Xie, S. Akiyama, and P. Mäkelä IHY – ISWI Regional meeting.
1 Diagnostics of Solar Wind Processes Using the Total Perpendicular Pressure Lan Jian, C. T. Russell, and J. T. Gosling How does the magnetic structure.

1 Diagnostics of Solar Wind Processes Using the Total Perpendicular Pressure Lan Jian, C. T. Russell, and J. T. Gosling How does the magnetic structure.
STEREO AND SPACE WEATHER Variable conditions in space that can have adverse effects on human life and society Space Weather: Variable conditions in space.

STEREO AND SPACE WEATHER Variable conditions in space that can have adverse effects on human life and society Space Weather: Variable conditions in space.
Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging in Improving Space Weather Prediction SHINE Session 6 Simon Plunkett and Doug Biesecker Thursday Morning.

Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging in Improving Space Weather Prediction SHINE Session 6 Simon Plunkett and Doug Biesecker Thursday Morning.
Heliospheric MHD Models (for the LWS Community) LWS Workshop, Boulder, CO, March 23-26, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil 1,2 and Vic Pizzo 2 1 University of Colorado/CIRES,

Heliospheric MHD Models (for the LWS Community) LWS Workshop, Boulder, CO, March 23-26, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil 1,2 and Vic Pizzo 2 1 University of Colorado/CIRES,
Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES &

Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES &
A General Cone Model Approach to Heliospheric CMEs and SEP Modeling Magnetogram-based quiet corona and solar wind model The SEPs are modeled as a passive.

A General Cone Model Approach to Heliospheric CMEs and SEP Modeling Magnetogram-based quiet corona and solar wind model The SEPs are modeled as a passive.
Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling The Solar Wind Forecast Model Carrington Rotation 1896Carrington Rotation.

Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling The Solar Wind Forecast Model Carrington Rotation 1896Carrington Rotation.
Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.
Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.
Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt.

Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt.
C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. Ambient Solar Wind Models SAIC 3-D MHD steady state coronal model based on photospheric field maps CU/CIRES-NOAA/SEC.

C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. Ambient Solar Wind Models SAIC 3-D MHD steady state coronal model based on photospheric field maps CU/CIRES-NOAA/SEC.
When will disruptive CMEs impact Earth? Coronagraph observations alone aren’t enough to make the forecast for the most geoeffective halo CMEs. In 2002,

When will disruptive CMEs impact Earth? Coronagraph observations alone aren’t enough to make the forecast for the most geoeffective halo CMEs. In 2002,
ENLIL 3D-MHD Modeling Support of Heliospheric Missions European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium, 17-21 November 2014 Dusan Odstrcil (GMU & NASA/GSFC)

ENLIL 3D-MHD Modeling Support of Heliospheric Missions European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium, November 2014 Dusan Odstrcil (GMU & NASA/GSFC)
C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Event CU/CIRES, NOAA/SEC, SAIC, Stanford Tatranska Lomnica, Slovakia,

C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Event CU/CIRES, NOAA/SEC, SAIC, Stanford Tatranska Lomnica, Slovakia,
Coronal and Heliospheric Modeling of the May 12, 1997 MURI Event MURI Project Review, NASA/GSFC, MD, August 5-6, 2003 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES.

Coronal and Heliospheric Modeling of the May 12, 1997 MURI Event MURI Project Review, NASA/GSFC, MD, August 5-6, 2003 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google