Presentation on theme: "Forest damage in a changing climate"— Presentation transcript:
1 Forest damage in a changing climate Anna Maria Jönsson and Lars BärringDept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem AnalysisGeobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University
2 Forest damage in a changing climate Predisposing factorsClimate change, Tree species and ProvenancesForest management, Nutrient availability, Air pollutionTriggering factorsWeather events exceeding tree acclimatization capacityOften causing visible damageContributing factorsAttacks by pests and pathogensOften the cause of mortality
3 Extreme weather event ≠ Extreme situation for the tree AcclimatizationThe ability to adjust to changing weather conditionsTolerate non-optimal conditionsThreshold values could be more important than extreme valuesAffected by ExampleSeasonality Spring backlashesIntensity FloodingDuration Dry spellsFrequency Wind stormsCombination Spring frost followed by drought
5 Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES related to task 6.2.2, 6.2.3, andSpring backlash index: Frost damage projectionsSBI has been calculated for Sweden, is currently applied to European conditions using the PRUDENCE dataset, and will use ENSEMBLES RCM data.A Frost hardiness and damage sub-module is incorporated to the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS.2) Modelling the temperature dependent development of thespruce bark beetle Ips typographusThe model has been applied to south Swedish conditions, and will be applied for Northern European spruce forests using ENSEMBLES RCM data.
6 Start of dehardening in Norway spruce 5 consecutive days with a mean temperature above 5°CScenario B2Scenario A212345monthClimate data: HadRM3
7 Frost events after the start of dehardening over 30-years Control periodScenario B2 - ControlScenario A2 - ControlNumber of eventsDifference
8 Temperature dependent annual cycle of Ips typographus Egg developmentSummer swarming?>Spring swarmingEgg development?Winter mortalityAlmost 100% for not completelydeveloped bark beetles
9 Development of Ips typographus in Växjö April May June July August SeptemberScenario B2Scenario A2Spring swarm Completed development
10 Temperature dependent summer swarming of Ips typographusData from RCA3Scenario A2
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