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(C) Murray Turoff 20091 PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management John Jay college of Criminal Justice Murray Turoff Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information.

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Presentation on theme: "(C) Murray Turoff 20091 PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management John Jay college of Criminal Justice Murray Turoff Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information."— Presentation transcript:

1 (C) Murray Turoff 20091 PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management John Jay college of Criminal Justice Murray Turoff Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems Department New Jersey Institute of Technology http:/is.njit.edu/turoff turoff@njit.edu

2 (C) Murray Turoff 20092

3 3 Disaster have been with us for a long time

4 (C) Murray Turoff 20094 Katrina

5 (C) Murray Turoff 20095 Course Objectives Cover Requirements for Emergency Preparedness and Management Information Systems Consider behavior of individuals, groups, organizations, and the public Consider communications and auxiliary technology Extreme Events Evaluating Technology and associated policies Underlying philosophies Future Concerns

6 (C) Murray Turoff 20096 Other Course Materials Online bulletin Board System Discussion threads/conferences/lists Instructor Instructions, read only Syllabus for course Using the discussion system Lecture Materials, read only Reading Materials, read only Introductions Questions on Lectures Questions on Reading materials Questions on assignments Other Questions Things to do (for learning), required Bad Examples of Emergency Management, required Jokes in Emergency Management Practice Café (not on the course topic)

7 (C) Murray Turoff 20097 Emergency Response Systems First Presentation Content Nature of an Emergency OEP Experience & Wisdom EMISARI at OEP DERMIS Conceptual Design Dynamics Emergency Response Management Information System General Principles Auxiliary Supporting Systems Resource Database Systems Collaborative Knowledge Systems Virtual Communities Social Networks and associated options Auditing and decision support Topics & Group Communications Concluding Remarks

8 (C) Murray Turoff 20098 Nature of an Emergency

9 (C) Murray Turoff 20099 Emergency Management Characteristics Unpredictable: Events Who will be involved What information will be needed What resources will be needed What actions will be taken, when, where, and by who No time for training, meeting, or planning No contingency plan that fits perfectly Planning should focus on the process

10 (C) Murray Turoff 200910 Associated Concerns Real practitioner team never formed till the emergency occurs Trust Conflicting goals Hundreds to thousands involved Planners and executers are different individuals Insufficient networking experience Insufficient command and control Disasters do not obey political, social, organizational, geographical boundaries Many problems occur at interfaces to boundaries – major errors, mistakes Sometimes called “interoperability”

11 (C) Murray Turoff 200911 Emergency Management Requirements Obtain data, status, views Monitor conditions Fill roles on a 24/7 basis Obtain expertise, liaison, action takers, reporters Defer to expertise and experience Need trust and shared objectives Draft contingencies Validate options Obtain approvals, delegate authority Coordinate actions, take actions, evaluate actions, conduct oversight Innovate when necessary Evaluate outcomes Modify scenarios and plans Modify systems and operations Correct CAUSES of prior errors

12 (C) Murray Turoff 200912 Emergency Management Phases & Activities Preparedness (analysis, planning, and evaluation): Analysis of the threats Analysis and evaluation of performance (and errors); Planning for mitigation; Planning for detection and intelligence; Planning for response; Planning for recovery and/or normalization Continuous correction of operations and plans Design of support systems and relationships Training Mitigation Detection Warning Response Recovery/normalization

13 (C) Murray Turoff 200913 Organizational Emergency Situations Strike Court Case Cost overrun Delivery delay New regulation Terrorist action Supply shortage Natural Disaster Man Made Disaster Production delay Product malfunction Contract Negotiation Loss of a key customer Responding to an RFP Loss of key employee(s) New Competitive product

14 (C) Murray Turoff 200914 Positive Emergency Situations Responding to an RFP Winning a large contract Developing a new product Creating a long term plan Understanding and responding to new regulations Taking over another company Too many orders for a product Employee shortage Shortage of raw materials Production problems Creating a time urgent task force or committee Matrix Management

15 (C) Murray Turoff 200915 Business Continuity and “other” Very similar concerns to Emergency Management Most business rely on external resources and support provided by the community they reside in However utilities, chemical plants, military bases, etc, must deal with the problems their existence can create Law Enforcement has a unique characteristic in trying to detect man made threats and dealing with them beforehand rather than those produced by nature Citizen, medical, community and Private Organization preparedness and management Interoperability is a major concern Should be no real professional difference in EM between public and private sectors

16 (C) Murray Turoff 200916 Lessons of 9/11 for Design Vulnerability of a physical command and control center Reductionism applied to Dynamic information Responder responsibilities Responsibilities of Agencies Communication systems Threat-Rigidity Syndrome Clear Exceptions to Plans and innovations Ferries as ambulances Use of N.J. National Guard telephone network via guard members GIS database critical to recovery (e.g. bathtub) Recovery a major undertaking (e.g. response continued: contamination)

17 (C) Murray Turoff 200917 Katrina Experiences Lack of adequate plans for things like evacuation Flawed local planning process Lack of considering behavioral implications Evacuation, civil employees, citizen trust (axes) Interrelationships of land management and change of threat Obsolete data (flood prediction maps) No overall responsibility for long term consequences of many actions by different entities Loss of local command and control facilities Contamination of waters Lack of coordination among organizations of all types Ice Fiasco, Citizen boat owners, Coast Guard, Red Cross, medication Lack of initiatives Lack of expertise National Guard Status

18 (C) Murray Turoff 200918 Evacuation Example Evacuation Plans are quite common but usually at a high level without answering the problem of exceptions How do you get people to evacuate in phases which some plans called for? What happens to first responders that want to insure there family gets out? Does a gas station attendant stay on the job? Does a food or grocery worker stay on the job? How do locals get last minute supplies? Does the bus driver leave his family behind? How do you handle accidents in an evacuation? Can medical, police, and public works communicate to be able to keep cars moving? Akin to building an information system under the assumption nothing will go wrong and all incoming data is perfect. No exceptions are allowed Accidents, stalled vehicles, traffic jams, lack of gas, food, water, etc.

19 (C) Murray Turoff 200919 Planning is Critical Nothing works without good plans Planning is a continuous process Planning needs to be done with the involvement of those that will be executing them. Planning must focus on defining the process, responsibilities, roles, and the resources, not the decisions Planning has to include recognizing prior mistakes/shortcomings and correcting them Planning has to be tied to generation of mitigation options (Long term cost saving ratio 3-5)

20 (C) Murray Turoff 200920 OEP Experience & Wisdom Office of Emergency Preparedness Executive Office of the President

21 (C) Murray Turoff 200921 Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP) Existed until 1973 in the Executive Offices Derivative of OSS (Office of Special Services) Centralized civilian command and control in any crisis situation: natural disasters, national strikes, commodity shortages, wartime situations, industry priorities, wage price freeze Command resources of all federal, state, local and industrial sources Could incorporate personnel as needed from any source Did contingency planning and utilized large community of experts and professionals on a national bases EMISARI functioned in the GSA until the late 80’s, manual: http://library.njit.edu/archives/cccc- materials/ Report ISG-117: The Resource Interruption Monitoring System, October 1974 GSAhttp://library.njit.edu/archives/cccc- materials/

22 (C) Murray Turoff 200922 OEP Wisdom I An emergency system must be regularly used to work in a real emergency People are working intense 14-18 hour days and cannot be interrupted Roles rather than person of the moment Timely tacking of what is happening is critical Delegation of authority a must and oversight of delegated actions is critical Providing related data and information up, down, and laterally is critical No way to know who will be concerned or contribute to a particular problem Plans are in constant modification

23 (C) Murray Turoff 200923 OEP Wisdom II Professional observers needed and trusted Learning and adaptation of response plans from training and real events is a necessity In a crisis exceptions and variations to the norm are common The critical problem of the moment collects attention and resources

24 (C) Murray Turoff 200924 OEP Wisdom III Roles are the constant in an emergency and who is in a role may vary unexpectedly Training people in multiple roles is very desirable Roles and their privileges must be defined in the response system (and the software) Understanding what is reality as an objective Coordination under unpredictability 24/7 operation

25 (C) Murray Turoff 200925 OEP Wisdom IV Supporting confidence in a decision by the best possible timely information Necessary Properties Free exchange of information Delegation of authority Decision accountability Decision oversight Information source identification as to source, date-time, reliability Information overload reduction Important computer design challenge

26 (C) Murray Turoff 200926 OEP Wisdom V The crux of the coordination problem for large crisis response groups is that the exact actions and responsibilities of each individual cannot be pre- determined. Coordination by feedback not by plan Realistic information on current conditions determines actions taken Paradox of Executive Planning

27 (C) Murray Turoff 200927 Recent Supporting Wisdom Hale 1997 “... the key obstacle to effective crisis response is the communication needed to access relevant data or expertise and to piece together an accurate understandable picture of reality”

28 (C) Murray Turoff 200928 Other Supporting Wisdom Dynes & Quarenteli 1977 “Coordination by feedback viewed as failure of planning and failure of coordination by most organizations. Instead plan should focus on improving and facilitating feedback” Plan the process and not the actions. Tie actions to observable measures and trust in expertise and experience The future is too variable to predict what outcomes should be as part of a plan—a disaster or a new product

29 (C) Murray Turoff 200929 Other Supporting Wisdom Horsely & Barker, 2002 Information Overload is typical People perform at higher levels of ability then usual or expected Heterogeneous groups and individuals People work together who do not normally do so Quick trust and spontaneous virtual teams Cannot predict who will be involved Cannot predict who will carry out what role at what time Community and Public relations is critical (confidence and trust) Consider hurricane evacuation in Texas after Katrina People panicking is very rare especially if authority is trusted

30 (C) Murray Turoff 200930 Threat Rigidity Syndrome Stress sets in, possible from: Fatigue, long hours, cognitive conflicts, high uncertainty Information Overload and/or uncertainty of right data being there Responsibilities for lives and as lives are lost based upon decisions made doubt and uncertainty in abilities set in Is better information going to show up in time? Golden hour for medical treatment Choice of following a formula or engaging in problem solving, creativity, and/or improvisation

31 (C) Murray Turoff 200931 COGNITIVE ABSORPTION (Agarwal and Karahanna, 2000) Psychological state of deep involvement Temporal dissociation Focused immersion Heightened enjoyment Curiosity or challenge Observed for computer game players and FAA controllers May lessen threat rigidity It can be a property of EM operators in a command and control environment

32 (C) Murray Turoff 200932 Mental Questions that Cause Stress Is the information I have a realistic picture of the situation? Should I wait longer to make a decision and then I will have better information? Does someone have the information I need to make a better decision? How many more lives will be lost or saved if I wait for more information? Can I trust the person taking over my role or should I work longer? Will that person have what I know and did and will I know what he did easily when I return?

33 (C) Murray Turoff 200933 Model of Threat Rigidity

34 (C) Murray Turoff 200934 Emergency Response Critical Success Factors The priority problem of the moment is the magnet that gathers the data, information, people, and resources to deal with it The integration of qualitative and quantitative information with measures of timeliness, confidence and priority is critical Having pre-established existing communities of people and resources to draw upon Knowing who and what is available in real time Learning from each experience and modifying lore for the future Allow participants to discover the problems they are concerned about or can contribute to (open architecture) Thousands of users possible but only 5 to 25 focus on any one problem and is unpredictable beyond basic roles. Depends on circumstances of surrounding problem. Decisions being made on incomplete information in a time urgent manner

35 (C) Murray Turoff 200935 Open Issues People can work 36 to 48 hours continuously in some crisis situations How do we really know when stress and/or fatigue is interfering with their judgment? How do we create quick trust in this environment? How do we encourage creativity rather than rigidity? How do you design an information system to encourage creativity?

36 (C) Murray Turoff 200936 Emergency communication design concepts Provide signals of a communication process Content can be the address Address a message to any data item whether quantitative or qualitative Who created or modified text or data and when it occurred is always tracked Status of inputs always visible Contribution Attributes: confidence, priority, source Text can be program: active or adaptive text Human roles in the software (varied privileges) Lateral (two way) linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for user Optimize group/team processes rather than individual processes. Associate qualitative and quantitative information

37 (C) Murray Turoff 200937 EMISARI Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index An “emissary” to those on the front lines Created in one week as a derivative of an existing Delphi Conferencing System for the 1971 Wage Price Freeze

38 (C) Murray Turoff 200938 EMISARI 1971 Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index Developed at OEP on a UNIVAC 1108 using EXEC VIII – early multiprocessor design (48 bit words) Sharable database structures with individual word locking/unlocking in hardware First used for Wage Price Freeze in 1971 Based upon software developed for virtual expert communities as a Policy Delphi Process Used until late 80’s for strikes, commodity shortages, and some natural disasters. Typically 100-400 users, 20-50 government units

39 (C) Murray Turoff 200939 EMISARI Objects Administrator (any object can be changed or created in a few minutes) Contacts (people) Conferences & Notebooks Data elements, tables, & matrix forms Authorship & time of data by contacts Label, definition, & contact Data Status: unavailable now, never, temporary, funny Directory Contacts Assignments / Responsibilities Available objects Online real time chat Separate message system Send messages to any data item or any contact

40 (C) Murray Turoff 200940 Send Message to Data Element Reporter contact could explain what was wrong with it Analyst could provide their interpretation of what it meant Contact could indicate he or she needed something different or complementary then current reported item Any contact could make comment about what it means to them like suggesting it needed a detailed discussion in some conference on the system What databases do you use where this might be a handy feature? Still not a standard feature

41 (C) Murray Turoff 200941 EMISARI Functions Message sent to contact, data element or form Discussion threads attached to objects Report formulation Virtual references between any objects simpler html form. Could include current version of any data element, text, message, etc in any other text item (&<m###, c##C###, n##p### d### v### t###) Exception reporting using notifications (new entries using certain key) Indexes Adaptive by use, most popular words in a two week period Tracking misses, listing words searched but not found Indirect communications (twitter property)

42 (C) Murray Turoff 200942 Data Object Types For single variable, vector, or table Administrator Defines element, label, definition Assigns it to contact Only one who can fill it in Always records date-time, author, and indicated special status Any contact can search directory entries of all data types and definitions

43 (C) Murray Turoff 200943 EMISARI Case tracking Case Template Steps in process of a case Actions at each step Who can take action What step is triggered by action Person responsible for next step notified automatically Others notified of status changes Discussion thread attached to case Used for violations of wage price freeze Used for shortage violations (oil, natural gas, chlorine, etc.) Originally design for tracking property disposal by the federal government Defining templates (many laws governing process) turned up some infinite cycles taking 5 to 10 years Emergencies need decision tracking software of this type.

44 (C) Murray Turoff 200944 EMISARI Notebooks Policies, Objectives, Laws, etc. and needed Interpretations News Actions Taken Limited Writers, many readers Adaptive Index Last 500 words searched Last 500 words not found by frequency requested Indirect communication path to those creating the information

45 (C) Murray Turoff 200945 Two interesting cases Cost of living council Meets once a week to make policy rulings List of not found words and their frequency supplied to the staff to set agenda for meeting Notebook of interpretations used by people all over the US to provide a basis for actions Lawyers that make interpretations of policy in specific cases Refused to use EMISARI at start (used teletype messages) Had same issue raised by different organizations and interpretations made by different lawyers. Contradictions found by Washington Post and led to them having to use the system Free access by those asking questions to all questions and all interpretations News Stories

46 (C) Murray Turoff 200946 EMISARI Disruption Model Commerce Input-Output Model Thousands of classifications Interrupt sub sector in given locality by strike or other disaster Calculate probable greatest impacts in rest of country Examination and prediction of where problems are going to happen in strikes, shortages, disruptions Results available in about four hours Tape driven system at the time

47 (C) Murray Turoff 200947 Emergency communication meta processes Computer Augmentation Regulation: Sequencing, iteration, synchronization, participation, assignment, tracking Facilitation: Organizing, summarizing, filtering, exposing, integrating, indexing, notifying, classifying, motivating

48 (C) Murray Turoff 200948 Group Communications design concepts I Provide signals of a communication process Stored notifications of actions by others or by system Status of members of the group Content can be the address Who created or modified text or data and when they did it is always tracked What a person has seen or not seen in database is also always tracked Text can be program: active or adaptive

49 (C) Murray Turoff 200949 Group Communications design concepts II Flexibility humans can use in other media Varied access privileges between members and objects Human roles in the software Lateral two way linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for user Improve group process by reduction of process losses Relate qualitative and quantitative information

50 (C) Murray Turoff 200950 Asynchronous opportunities of Group Communications Independence of Individual problem solving Group problem solving Meta process & synchronization Backtracking Changing views Individual control Equal participation Mixed cognitive styles Bottom/up vs. Top/down Data vs. Abstraction

51 (C) Murray Turoff 200951 Goals of Group Communications Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process structures Integration with other communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface (people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving

52 (C) Murray Turoff 200952 Smart Requirements for Emergency Group Communications Determine what individuals are looking for and not finding Guide individuals to those interested in the same thing at the same time Piece relevant data together Alert individuals to anything falling in the cracks Provide high confidence of a person knowing they have the best information possible at the moment

53 (C) Murray Turoff 200953 Social Needs of intense groups Rely on one another Trust the others to do their job Frank and open viewpoints Willingness to handover roles and responsibilities Creation of a team spirit Needs to be encouraged through the system design Equal access to all by all, since we cannot predict who might be involved for a given situation

54 (C) Murray Turoff 200954 HCI Challenges I System is a helper not a boss System allows variable problem solving methods Reduction of information overload Minimization of execution difficulty High degree of comprehension High degree of tailoring by individual Encourage creativity and improvisation Support decision confidence Monitor performance and effort for possible fatigue Multimodal interfaces

55 (C) Murray Turoff 200955 Integration Requirements Fire, Police, Public Works Public Health, Hospitals, Clinics, Doctors Community resources (e.g. bulldozers, contractors, boats, generators, etc.) Utilities, Contractors, Equipment State Agencies, National Guard, State Police, Other local regional Governments Federal Agencies, Civil Defense, FEMA, Homeland Security Non-Profits, Service Organizations, Professionals, Community Groups Citizen volunteers Forms of communication

56 (C) Murray Turoff 200956 Superconnectivity Number of working communication relationships multiplied by a factor of five to ten Accurate and large group memories for both data and lore Faster communication process than other alternatives on the average Individuals get to know each other without physical or status bias Tremendous efficiencies possible with good design (beyond electronic mail)

57 (C) Murray Turoff 200957 Summary I An Emergency Response and Management System is primarily a communication system. The only content about the application in a communication system is that which is created by the users. This requires the ability of users to create templates for content tailored to the various types of emergencies they must deal with. The source and time of information provided is a key to information usage by users. Quick trust and Virtual dynamic groups/teams are a key requirement. Responsibilities/accountability for current and potential actions are necessary information Crisis require individuals replacing others with respect to responsibilities as a crisis is a 24/7 occurrence.

58 (C) Murray Turoff 200958 Summary 2 Relevance of data, information, knowledge, and wisdom is time dependent. The content of a communication can determine the address, no other communication system allows this. Indirect communications can be as important or useful as direct communications Dynamic Group Formulation needs to be provided as a result of the above Need to minimize interruptions for people involved Need to allow a high degree of user tailoring for roles and associated events

59 (C) Murray Turoff 200959 DERMIS Conceptual Design Dynamic Emergency Response Management Information System (The first layer of defense for the public body)

60 (C) Murray Turoff 200960 DERMIS Objectives Easy to Learn High degree of tailoring by users Used by trained professionals Overcome problem of small screens (PDA) Virtual command and control center Support use of remote databases in an integrated manner Support planning, evaluation, training, updating, maintenance, and recovery, as well as response Communication process independent of content

61 (C) Murray Turoff 200961 Design Premises System Training and Simulation Information Focus Crisis Memory Exceptions as Norms Scope and Nature of Crisis Information Validity and Timeliness Free exchange of Information Coordination and Integration

62 (C) Murray Turoff 200962 General Design Principles and Specifications System Directory Information Source and Timeliness Open Multi-directional communications Content as the address Link Relevant Information and Data Support psychological and social needs

63 (C) Murray Turoff 200963 Supporting Design Considerations Associated systems Resource Databases Community Collaboration systems Online Communities of Experts Important concept: There is no specific data in DERMIS system. Everything is created from templates for the data types that are defined so it can be tailored to any locality or region. It is a communication system just like a phone is. There can be a library of templates to draw on.

64 (C) Murray Turoff 200964 Six Specific Interaction Design Criteria Metaphors understood by professionals Human roles built in Notifications integrated into communications Context visibility Application Template is the menu Choice tailored to role Semantic Hypertext relationships Two way linkages created List processing at user level Creation of lists tied to roles Manipulation of items in a list Eg expansion and contraction

65 (C) Murray Turoff 200965 Context Visibility Example Recipe Processing instructions Steps in the process Materials: pots, pans, utensils Ingredients Amounts, units Click on anything to get more information To get other menus Example: ingredient Mayonnaise might bring up recipe, types, properties, other recipes using it, etc. Anything returns a result that could be tailored to the role of the person doing it.

66 (C) Murray Turoff 200966 Emergency Metaphor All emergencies have events Time logged and archived Serves dispatch function Used after emergency to understood what took place Often separate events on different systems for each agency involved Consider dynamic database of events integrated across all agencies

67 (C) Murray Turoff 200967 Metaphors I Log of Events Root Event and Sub-events Lateral Events Each decision/action event triggered by specified role or roles, or other events Observations/reports can also be events Event Template A collection of events possible within the context of a given root event

68 (C) Murray Turoff 200968 Events Associated with an Ambulance Request for an ambulance unit Ambulance, driver, paramedic, medical supplies, gas. Response to request Oversight negation Road blockage or traffic jam Lack of supplies Lack of staff Other demands for units

69 (C) Murray Turoff 200969 Metaphors II Events delivered to specified reactive roles for the event Events delivered to roles that have specified the need to track given parent events Event status is maintained Events can be categorized and/or marked by user

70 (C) Murray Turoff 200970 Metaphors III Resource Roles Requester: seeks to obtain resource Observer: Predicts need based upon threat and observations Dispatcher/supplier: allocates it Oversight reviewer: Might negate it for fair distribution based upon expectations Planner/Analyst: Predict consumption rate and exhaustion potential of resource Maintainer: Insures readiness Seeker: Obtains new units of resources Distributor: Distribution to dispatchers Each type of resource can have the above 8 roles, a single site for use of the resources may have a unique first 3 roles, others depend on the nature of the resource.

71 (C) Murray Turoff 200971 Properties of Roles Each role has its own event set it is concerned with Clearly for a given situation roles must know of actions by other roles If request cannot be honored the requester needs to know how long a delay might be involved Each role focuses on a very specific responsibility for the total task of getting something like an ambulance sent Scope of the disaster influences resulting complexity Roles in very different areas need to know what each other is doing that affects them A mudslide or traffic stoppage on a certain road may block resources to a given site and time to correct, if possible, needed

72 (C) Murray Turoff 200972 Metaphors IV Events have semantic links to all relevant information and data Forms for the collection of data Resources of concern Maps and Pictures Appropriate command choices Appropriate status options Parent, children, and Lateral events

73 (C) Murray Turoff 200973 Event Log Metaphor Encourages the use of both the semantic memory (relationship structure between events) and the use of episodic memory for the temporal sequence of occurrence of events Aids in minimizing information overload impacts and supporting cognitive flexibility Each event becomes a dynamic interaction menu – context visibility Events for a given role may be from a variety of activities and from other roles Sending of resources needs knowledge of ways of being sent and any blockage The computer can help to determine when a role needs certain events When is the blockage to be cleared

74 (C) Murray Turoff 200974 Example: Resource Request Event Template Status & Steps Resource Request (location, situation) Allocation (or deny, delay, partial allocation) In transit Arrival of resource Status change in resource Status change in situation Recycle action Resource maintenance, reassignment Return transit Tailored information Completion action Status report

75 (C) Murray Turoff 200975 Sample Event Types Triggering/root events Resource requests Resource allocations Information requests Situation reports Completion announcements Status change Warnings/Alerts Leads/Speculations Role changes Interrupted events Suspended events Archived events

76 (C) Murray Turoff 200976 Individual Event Processing Profile of event types within specified parameters like location Person has list of events of concern New events passing profile filter delivered to list Add and remove events Mark events for tracking related events Events have hierarchy with a root event and various layers May incorporate lateral events that are needed May expand and contract list

77 (C) Murray Turoff 200977 Roles in DERMIS Characterized by Events the role can trigger Required reactions to events Responsibilities for Actions, Decisions Reporting of data Assessing Information Oversight, assessment Resource maintenance Reporting, Liaison

78 (C) Murray Turoff 200978 Fundamental Roles Incident local site commander Resource Requests (people or things) Resource Allocation Resource Maintenance Resource Acquisition Finding needed resources (equipment, people) Reporting and updating situations Edit, organize, and summarize information Analysis of Situations Expected results, expenditure of resources Oversight, consulting, advising Negating allocations, alerting for running out Alerting and scheduling Assigning and scheduling roles and role changes Coordination among different areas Incident wide area commander Priority and Strategy Setting Liaison to other organizations

79 (C) Murray Turoff 200979 Privileges for Roles Creating event log entries of a given type Templates to create new event types or new resources or anything not now specified in the system. Responding to specific incidences of events by type, situation, and location Supplying specific information or data Producing situational and interpretive reports

80 (C) Murray Turoff 200980 Event Categories for Role Filtering New/Waiting To do “asap” Action required Response required Information required Events with tasks for role Informational Priority change Status change Interrupted event Suspended event Finished event Archived event Events tracked for interest/concern

81 (C) Murray Turoff 200981 Role Interaction Objectives Facilitate Handover of roles Sharing of roles Assignment of roles Tracking Effort and time in role Performance and errors Alerting oversight roles

82 (C) Murray Turoff 200982 Notifications Minimal messages that contain the essence of a communication. Canned so they can be reactive and triggered by a click. Usually they become part of what they are reacting to Queries that require a response Alerting individuals to something that has occurred due to the actions of others Preformed statements like I agree, Good idea, I disagree, information X needed, etc (what ever is wanted)

83 (C) Murray Turoff 200983 Canned Notifications I agree/disagree with it I am taking care of this Delay this action Give this a higher/lower priority Get us more details on this Good point/work/job Is there more Find related information Investigate this

84 (C) Murray Turoff 200984 Query / Fill In notification Supply an estimate of the injured? ______________ We will have more information by (time). We will need (number) more of (supply item). Alert for delivery of more involved forms needing processing

85 (C) Murray Turoff 200985 Context Visibility Example A single event can have the following information with potential multiple links for each Event log ID Resource type Responsible party or author Relevant location or locations Next expected event Role to take further action Status of event Situation report Lateral Events Footnotes, notifications, and comments

86 (C) Murray Turoff 200986 Resource Context Example Menu Clicking on a unit resource in an event could produce any of the following results (depends on role that is clicking) Current status of the unit in this event Status of all units at location of this event Status of all units at desired source of resource Status of all available units Status of all in use units Status of all units Sources for new units These menu “links” dynamically updated Concept of general to specific with lateral linkages at any level

87 (C) Murray Turoff 200987 Link Menu triggered by click on Resource Type Defaults can be set by individual user role Dimension of very specific to very general (examples) Status of the unit to be assigned or those which are assigned (assigned) Status of all units in event area (involved) Status of all of units currently in assigned to this emergency (total) Estimates of back up units (reserve) Other sources of resource

88 (C) Murray Turoff 200988 Nature of Hypertext Linkage Two way linkages Semantic meanings to all links Multiple links from an anchor point Collection of links becomes a balloon menu for that anchor point Links are dynamic

89 (C) Murray Turoff 200989 List Processing Properties Event log a very large dynamic list Template and incident relationships Many alternative orderings Internal network type indexing Collective view of reality Indirect communications, command, and control Primary interface menu Communication bookkeeping on the actions of others

90 (C) Murray Turoff 200990 List Processing Requirements Tailoring by user roles and dynamic groups Expand and contract list Mark and prioritize Filter, organize, and reorder Allow dynamic formation of groups Alert to significant status changes Indicate what you want to track and what you can ignore

91 (C) Murray Turoff 200991 Communication Exercise I (don’t do unless assigned) Simple Morphological Problem 1. Police and law Enforcement 2. Firemen 3. Public Works 4. Public Health 5. Hospitals and Emergency Medical Services 6. Red Cross (temporary housing) 7. Utility Power Companies 8. Water and Sewage 9. Phone Companies 10. Transportation services (buses, trains, etc.) 11. National Guard 12. State Officials 13. Local Officials 14. Federal Officials 15. Press and the Public 16. Any thing you want to add

92 (C) Murray Turoff 200992 Communication Exercise II Assignment: What is a specific example in any specific emergency where one of the above 15 listed organizations has to specifically communicate with one of the others for any reason that will aid the emergency management process. There are n(n-1)/2 possible combinations or 14x15/2 = 105 examples. You are only asked to come with 25 examples but try to determine some that are not at all obvious. Add a 15th if you come up with another organization you want to consider.

93 (C) Murray Turoff 200993 Communication Exercise III Be specific: (1 and 3) A rainfall has caused a mud slide and the police, first on the scene, must get the public works department to clear the road that has been blocked; (1 and 5) the police must also notify hospitals that ambulances can not use this roadway to reach casualties; (1 and 13, 15) they must also notify the public local administrators. Therefore, this one occurrence produces four items.

94 (C) Murray Turoff 200994 DERMIS Directory Structure I Directory People Background & Expertise Group membership Conference membership Bulletin Board Editorship Roles & Responsibilities Event Creation Current Active Events Notifications Resource Concerns Authorities

95 (C) Murray Turoff 200995 DERMIS Directory Structure II Directory Contacts Events Roles Groups (informal and formal) Conferences Bulletin Boards (e.g. policy, plans, etc.) Databases System Learning and help materials Training Materials and Games Related Systems

96 (C) Murray Turoff 200996 Design Principle I System Directory provides a hierarchical structure, with lateral links, for all the current data and information in the system Complete text searching Dynamic lateral link examples: People in roles currently People qualified for roles People tracking a given root event to a template

97 (C) Murray Turoff 200997 Design Principle 2 All information brought into the system identified by source, time, and links to related events All actions (controlled events) taken by roles also clearly logged and tracked within the templates they are linked to and identified by the role and who had the role

98 (C) Murray Turoff 200998 Design Principle 3 Open communications to all members of the system and all roles Being able to start a discussion root linked to any object of data or information. Paste communications anywhere in the system including multiple linkages

99 (C) Murray Turoff 200999 Design Principle 4 Links normally made by the system based upon the relevance of the data or information to current events and roles Links may also be made by specific roles such as observers We need subtle ways of keeping roles aware of what is new and relevant to them.

100 (C) Murray Turoff 2009100 Design Principle 5 Dynamic update of information so that the user does not have to concern themselves with what is the most current situation Predictions of updates where ever possible to let roles know if any relevant information is eminent

101 (C) Murray Turoff 2009101 Design Principle 6 Any two items maybe linked semantically anywhere in the system Links are always two way Links are typed and retrievable Links have a date-time and source as they are a data object

102 (C) Murray Turoff 2009102 Design Principle 7 Authorities, responsibilities, and accountability are all explicit within the context of any role or set of roles The same holds for the definition of events Higher levels of authority are for oversight over the lower levels An action proceeds unless oversight is executed in a timely manner

103 (C) Murray Turoff 2009103 Design Principle 8 Encourage and support the psychological and social needs of any crisis response team Facilitate quick trust and virtual team spirit Try to detect and deal with stress and fatigue Provide training for multiple role taking on the fly (e.g. trainees can observe the role in action)

104 (C) Murray Turoff 2009104 Audit Objectives I Foundations of Auditing Theory of Inspired Confidence Limperg, Netherlands, 70 years ago Confidence of the public (citizens and investors) in organizations Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 Protect the interests of public investors SARBOX for short

105 (C) Murray Turoff 2009105 Audit Objectives II Audit Implications Assurance of the Decision Process for all financial/economic transactions (not the decision) Includes determination of VALUE and RISKS (!!!) Includes stewardship of the managers and professionals Assurance needs of society change over time

106 (C) Murray Turoff 2009106 Audit Questions Regular Decision Processes when there are problems detected What is the relevant data/information? Who has the decision authority? Who will make the decision? How was authority delegated? Who advises/consults on the decision? Who/what is impacted by the decision? Who needs to know about the decision? Does everyone concerned have access to the relevant data/information? Who supplies data/information? When must the decision be made? What is the expectation of additional data/information and when?

107 (C) Murray Turoff 2009107 ER decision making issues Complications added by Emergency Response Decision Processes Dynamic delegation of Authority Fluid accountability/responsibility Dynamic formulation of group concerned with decision Critical time constraints Interdependence of transactions/events Dynamic role changes Conflicts for resources Unpredictability of environment

108 (C) Murray Turoff 2009108 Create an EPTrust Emergency Preparedness Trust Sets of controls to measure the current degree of emergency Preparedness of an organization Natural extension of security and recovery auditing Can be developed now and applied to organizations A critical first step

109 (C) Murray Turoff 2009109 Technology Changes I Continuous Auditing Continuous tests of controls Continuous monitoring of all organizational decision process Continuous monitoring, capture, reporting, and evaluation of data Development of performance measures

110 (C) Murray Turoff 2009110 Technology Change II Organizational Process Design Integration of the flow of data/information across functional domains Making decision requirements explicit Supply Chain Management Customer Relationship Management Virtual teams, Outsourcing Enterprise/Strategic Resource Planning: ERP, SRP, etc.

111 (C) Murray Turoff 2009111 Observations I Emergency decisions require the same assurance process as regular decisions and then some! Technology is moving organizations in the direction of enterprise wide systems and ultimately to continuous auditing as well. Continuous auditing is the backbone for any type of decision assurance process.

112 (C) Murray Turoff 2009112 Observations II CA makes the integration of Emergency Response Systems relatively easy Insures training and use by employees It would spread ER systems throughout the society It will reduce the costs of such systems Adding intelligent tools will be easier Confidence in making critical decisions will be higher Stress will be reduced improvisation will be enhanced Easier integration across organizations

113 (C) Murray Turoff 2009113 Dangers of Computer Monitoring of Decision Processes Computerization often leads to attempts to simplify decisions so they can be modeled and programmed. The approach needed is to leave complex decisions and problem coping to the emergency response managers and professionals Making roles of managers and professionals explicit in the software and integrating that into Virtual Team support Systems is a solution to this problem if it includes: Tying of software supported roles to events defining decision requirements Integration with the flow of data and information

114 (C) Murray Turoff 2009114 Auxiliary Supporting Systems Resource Databases Organizational Memory & Collaborative Knowledge Building Systems for professional groups Virtual Communities Local Community participation, collaboration, and involvement in providing knowledge, person-power, and equipment.

115 (C) Murray Turoff 2009115 Some Key Research TOPICS in ER Virtual Command and Control Centers Stimulating creativity or improvising On-line communities: Generate trust, social networks, cohesiveness, and community involvement Investigations of decision scenarios and possible audit controls Decision Support Tools for all ER phases Multimodal & Multimedia Augmentation New Training Approaches Distributive System Integration

116 (C) Murray Turoff 2009116 Key Independent Decision Support Roles

117 (C) Murray Turoff 2009117 Planning with DERMIS Dynamic Emergency Response Management Information System Generating scenarios and evaluating them as a collaborative exercise is quite easy to do in ERMIS Addition need of voting and scaling aids to allow determining disagreements and focus discussion Generate new event types and roles to deal with new risks

118 (C) Murray Turoff 2009118 Training with DERMIS Easy to establish training exercises based upon role-event structure Simulation driven by a sequence of timed events in real time tied to the clock or can be speeded up for some types of training Players can easily be simulated with respect to actions and generated events Small teams can participate with a much larger groups of simulated players

119 (C) Murray Turoff 2009119 Evaluating with DERMIS Examine log file of events and actions by roles Develop appropriate analysis tools to aid this process Discover and correct problems by improving system and/or improving training

120 (C) Murray Turoff 2009120 Recovery with DERMIS Can be used to direct and coordinate the recovery activity Can involve any diversity organizations and agencies involved Provides a complete record and accountability for the recovery process

121 (C) Murray Turoff 2009121 Summary on DERMIS Can be used for all phases of the emergency response process Can be used for “little” emergencies which are quite common in any type of organizations Can be used to support Online Communities

122 (C) Murray Turoff 2009122 Topics & Group Communications Developed at NJIT on the EIES system in the late 70’s Electronic Information Exchange System (EIES)

123 (C) Murray Turoff 2009123 Topics: Unpredictable information exchange Topic is limited sized inquiry Broadcast to all Selection of ones to track (receive responses) by reader Limited response length Types of response: reference, answer, contact Data base of results Roles in software: Indexer, Briefer

124 (C) Murray Turoff 2009124 Topics Example State Legislative Science Advisors Large groups (50-300) Each topic about 15 responses Sample topics in 3 weeks Computer crime laws, mining of bentonite, legal definition of death, control of isobutynitrite, hazardous waste survey, underground hv transmission, licensing child care centers, child abuse, prison industries, licensing of midwives, salt brime disposal, cameras in court, junk foods in schools, educational vouchers, definition of antiques, generic drugs, methodone, migrant education

125 (C) Murray Turoff 2009125 Loss of Focus and Interruptions Early studies of programmers Interruptions cost complex problem solving loss of setup time and think time Shown to be very significant Also slow response of systems a contributory factor Putting programmers in open bays and with lost of activity clearly detrimental

126 (C) Murray Turoff 2009126 Serious Concern today about instant messaging and cell phones in business Help! I’ve lost my focus, Time magazine, January 16, 2006, by Stephanie Diani CrazyBusy, Overstretched, Overbooked and About to Snap: Strategies for Coping in a World Gone ADD by Edward Hallowell, Ballantine books, 2006.

127 (C) Murray Turoff 2009127 Concerns I An epidemic of “Attention Deficit Disorder” High Cost of interruptions Study of 1,000 office hours found 2.1 hours a day or 28% loss of the workday Employees devote an average to 11 minutes to project before a ping of an e-mail or the ring of phone interrupted Once interrupted an extra 25 minutes needed to return to original task Average worker juggling about 12 projects apiece Interruptions destroy setup goals

128 (C) Murray Turoff 2009128 Concerns II Performance declines and stress rises with the number of tasks juggled Most creative and productive people refuse to subject their brains to excess data streams Some multitasking can stimulate, too much does the opposite Interruptions at the beginning or the end of a task does the maximum damage Interruptions of the problem solving planning process are considered the worse Interruptions by email and cell phones maybe addictive

129 (C) Murray Turoff 2009129 Results for Emergency IS For problem solving we need to design systems that allow the user to focus on the tasks The system has integrate the work of others in a manner that allows the user to concentrate of their work and have the benefit of what is really relevant to what the user is doing at the moment Context visibility and hypertext as an associative mechanism Event templates as an integration mechanism

130 (C) Murray Turoff 2009130 Not an easy road to take Roles in Disaster Cause Rift in City: Despite Sept. 11, Fire Dept and Police Lack Accord by William Bashbaum and Michelle O’Donnell, New York Times, 4/3/2004, pages A1 & B4 “More than two and a half years later…the city still lacks what many experts say is the most basic and essential tool…a formal agreement governing what city agency will lead the response at the scene of any catastrophic accident…”

131 (C) Murray Turoff 2009131 Goals of Group Communications Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process structures Integration with other communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface (people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving Information Overload reduction

132 (C) Murray Turoff 2009132 The Future Smart planning, talented people, and well designed adaptive communication / information networks are needed Change and disruption is more common than we think, even in commerce, and getting more frequent The social system technology can be designed to make dramatic improvements in ER However, does the organizational motivation and understanding exist to do it? The issue is designing new virtual organizations and communities that will change existing organizations and the way things are done.

133 (C) Murray Turoff 2009133 Quotes relevant to EM The Information needed to understand the problem depends upon one’s idea for solving it. -- Rittel & Webber 1973 A Seer upon perceiving a flood should be the first to climb a tree – Kahlil Gibran We, the willing, led by the incompetent to do the impossible for the ungrateful, have done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing practically anything with nothing. -- unofficial motto of emergency managers

134 (C) Murray Turoff 2009134 The problem of KNOWLEDGE

135 (C) Murray Turoff 2009135 The End of the First Set of Slides


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