1. Everything you ever wanted to know about BUGS, R2winBUGS, and Adaptive Rejection Sampling A Presentation by Keith Betts

2. About BUGS Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling Developed by UK Medical Research Council and the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London. http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs

3. Why Use BUGS Sophisticated implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo for any given model No derivation required Useful for double-checking hand coded results Great for problems with no exact analytic solution

4. What does every BUGS file need? Model  Specify the Likelihood and Prior distributions Data  External data in either rectangular array or as R data type Initial Values  Starting values for MCMC parameters

5. Model a syntactical representation of the model, in which the distributional form of the data and parameters are specified. ~ assigns distributions <- assigns relations for loops to assign i.i.d. data.

6. Distributions Syntax can be found in User Manual, under Distributions Parameterization may be different than in R  dnorm(μ,τ), τ is the precision (not the standard deviation).

7. Data Place Data and Global variables in one list file Vectors represented just as in R, c(.,.) Matrices require structure command

8. Initial Values User requested initial values can be supplied for multiple chains Put starting values for all variables in one list statement BUGS can generate its own starting values

9. How to run Place your Model, Data, and Initial Values in one file. Open “Specification” from the model menu  Highlight “model” statement  Click “Check Model”  Highlight “list” in Data section  Click “Load Data”

10. How to run continued Still in Model Specification  Click Compile  Choose how many chains to run  Highlight “list” in initial values section  Click “load inits”  Alternatively click “gen inits”

11. How to run (Part 3) Open “Samples” from “Inference” menu  Enter all variables of interest (one at a time) into node box, and click “set Open “Update” from “Model” menu  Enter how many iterations wanted

12. Inference Open “Samples” from “Inference” Menu  Enter * in node box  Click “History” to view Trace plots  Click “Density” for density plots  Click “Stats” for summary statistics  Change value of “beg” for burnout

13. Example 1 Poisson-Gamma Model  Data: # of Failures in power plant pumps  Model # of Failures follows Poisson(θ i t i ) θ i failure rate follows Gamma(α, β) Prior for α is Exp(1) Prior for β is Gamma(.1, 1)

14. Example 1 Continued: Computational Issues  Gamma is natural conjugate for Poisson distribution  Posterior for β follows Gamma  Non-standard Posterior for α

15. Model Step model { for (i in 1 : N) { theta[i] ~ dgamma(alpha, beta) lambda[i] <- theta[i] * t[i] x[i] ~ dpois(lambda[i]) } alpha ~ dexp(1) beta ~ dgamma(0.1, 1.0) }

16. Data Step and Initial Values Data:  list(t = c(94.3, 15.7, 62.9, 126, 5.24, 31.4, 1.05, 1.05, 2.1, 10.5), x = c(5, 1, 5,14, 3, 19, 1, 1, 4, 22), N = 10) Initial Values:  list(alpha = 1, beta = 1)

17. Example 2 Data: 30 young rats whose weights were measured weekly for five weeks. Yij is the weight of the ith rat measured at age xj. Assume a random effects linear growth curve model

18. Example 2: Model model { for( i in 1 : N ) { for( j in 1 : J ) { mu[i, j] <- alpha[i] + beta[i] * (t[j] - tbar) Y[i, j] ~ dnorm(mu[i, j], sigma.y) } alpha[i] ~ dnorm(mu.alpha, sigma.alpha) beta[i] ~ dnorm(mu.beta, sigma.beta) } sigma.y ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001) mu.alpha ~ dunif( -1.0E9,1.0E9) sigma.alpha ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001) mu.beta ~ dunif(-1.0E9,1.0E9) sigma.beta ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001) }

19. R2winBUGS R package Runs BUGS through R Same computational advantages of BUGS with statistical and graphical capacities of R.

20. Make Model file Model file required  Must contain BUGS syntax  Can either be written in advance or by R itself through the write.model() function

21. Initialize Both data and Initial values stored as lists Create param vector with names of parameters to be tracked

22. Run bugs(datafile, initial.vals, parameters, modelfile, n.chains=1, n.iter=5000, n.burnin=2000, n.thin=1, bugs.directory="c:/Program Files/WinBUGS14/", working.directory=NULL) Extract results from $sims.matrix

23. How BUGS works BUGS determines the complete conditionals if possible by:  Closed form distributions  Adaptive-Rejection Sampling  Slice-Sampling  Metropolis Algorithm

24. Recall Rejection Sampling

25. Adaptive Rejection Sampling(ARS) ARS is a method for efficiently sampling from any univariate probability density function which is log-concave. Useful in applications of Gibbs sampling, where full-conditional distributions are algebraically messy yet often log-concave

26. Idea ARS works by constructing an envelope function of the log of the target density  Envelope used for rejection sampling Whenever a point is rejected by ARS, the envelope is updated to correspond more closely to the true log density.  reduces the chance of rejecting subsequent points

27. Results As the envelope function adapts to the shape of the target density, sampling becomes progressively more efficient as more points are sampled from the target density. The sampled points will be independent from the exact target density.

28. References W. R. Gilks, P. Wild (1992), "Adaptive Rejection Sampling for Gibbs Sampling," Applied Statistics, Vol. 41, Issue 2, 337- 348.