Presentation on theme: "Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in Italia Roma, 13 dicembre 2005 Claudio Carrelli Linnovazione nelle tecnologie di comunicazione elettronica."— Presentation transcript:
Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in Italia Roma, 13 dicembre 2005 Claudio Carrelli Linnovazione nelle tecnologie di comunicazione elettronica
Research or Marketing Hat?
Three Hats TechnologyMarket Regulation
Which one is more important? An Old Chinese Game
Fisso e lento Mobile e rock La telefonia e lenta Internet e rock La TV commerciale e lenta La larga banda e rock La tecnologia non deve essere lenta Le applicazioni sono super rock
Mobile Broadband Internet The simplest and most effective combination of three words to describe the most promising developments of the ICT world for the next years But do not under evaluate applications for new services!!
Summary 1.Technology and social impact 2.From cable vs radio to fix vs mobile 3.The digital revolution 4.Future trends and opportunities
1. Technology and social impact
Three basic questions on technology 1. Do we have too much technology? 2. When is a technology mature? 3. Can a technology be simply transferred?
1. Do we have too much technology? In 1816 Francis Rolands, proposed an electric telegraph to the Admiralty. The answer was negative because the war with France was considered over and the telegraph system (optical at the time) was in no need of improvement
Laser technology Invented in the seventies Immediately named as a solution looking for a problem Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing, and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology
The Tron House The first intelligent house Completed in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan) Key concept: fusion of humans, nature and computers A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the TRON Architecture Dismantled in '94
What did we learn? Technology has not a value per se Technology is an enabler The value is in the application …the value is in its easy of use
Simplicity will win! Electric Telegraph was indeed developed and deployed, but, due to its inherent difficulties of use, it never met mass markets. Its successor, the telephone, with its easy use found the big success
2. When is a technology mature? 1927
What did we learn? Even when a technology is considered mature it may greatly evolve Its potential developments are still extraordinary and unforeseen
3. Can a technology be simply moved?
Horse vs horseless vehicle
What did we learn? Mobile internet should not be simply seen as a result of wire-line internet made wireless Nobody would read an entire book on a collection of post it ……a look to the recent past… The success of i-mode has clearly shown the value of innovation and creativity
Balancing technology and users needs No! ICT innovation for a better quality of life!! Pure technology?
The first TV remote control in 1950 Called Lazy bones and wire-line..Flashmatic,..Spacecommand Its percentage on price exceeded 30% How much would you save today to live without it? Yes, we can not live without it!
And that is only the beginning! Dont we already talk to things?
Two main comments on innovation and key to success
Simplicity will win The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one: Telephone over telegraph IP and internet vs ISDN SMS vs ISDN D-channel i-mode vs WAP Blue-tooth vs DECT ….and what about Wi-Fi and Wi-Max?
Local first, networking follows Stereo records and stereo broadcast Movies and TV Photo and telephoto DVD... HDTV Multimedia terminal equipment, … broadband communication Intelligent housewares ….networked home RFID….. Automated logistics
…and mobility will follow!!
…can we live without a cellular phone?
The myth of Broadband and the value of the Mbyte
Life begins at 100 Mbit/s Peter Cochrane, ConceptLabs
What about social impact?
Is BB la mode?
A simple access for river exploration
A more powerful one for new discoveries
A false problem How much transmission capacity (Bandwidth) will customers require? It is the available capacity and associated services that will condition the real use
Do we know how many litres of water we need for a shower?
First example from the press are quite well known News and video clips History on 50 pictures Film trailer Watch free video Blog watch Watch/listen
Technology is here! BB offer is growing and will continue to grow Let us grasp the opportunities Simplicity is the first requirement Aim to a target: a better quality of life