1. The Danish labour market situation Helsinki, May 9. - 10. 2011

2. 03-07-2015 - 2 - Local, regional and national level The (municipal) Job Centers (92)  Have a high degree of freedom in planning and implementing their employment initiatives and activities  Are obliged to focus on outcomes, and to achieve results which contribute to the realization of the national and regional outcome performance The Employment Regions (4)  Are responsible for ensuring coherence between the local initiatives and the National Employment Policies  Follow up the performance outcomes of the employment measures being pursued in the job centres The Minister of Employment  Sets the national targets and focus areas

3. 4 Employment Regions in Denmark South Denmark Employment Region 1.2 million Central Jutland Employment Region 1.2 million North Jutland Employment Region 0.6 million Copenhagen & Zealand Employment Region 2.4 million

4. Developments in the Danish Labour market The Danish economy / labour market is facing challenges in the short and in the long term:  Short term challenges: Recovery from the recession. A question af business cycles  Long term challenges: Structure and demografi

5. Development in unemployment and long term unemployment 1996-2011

6. Developments in the Danish Labour market  The unemployment reached an all time low in July 2008 with an unemployment rate of 2,1 pct.  Because of the current economic recession, by January 2011 the unemployment rate had risen to 6,5 pct.  By March 2011: 6,1 pct. - unemployment appears to have stabilized at around 6 pct.  Denmark has lost almost 200.000 jobs in the private sector within 2 years

7. Unemployment by age groups 2007-2011

8. Unemployment by sex 2007-2011

9. Structural challenges : The age- challenge

10. Labour market participation among the age group 60-64 years

11. Other structural challenges Denmark has:  the highest tax burden in OECD (in pct. of GNP: 48 pct.)  the highest public sector wages in OECD countries (in pct. of GNP: 18 pct.)  the highest public consumption in OECD (in pct. of GNP: 30 pct.)  the highest public expenditure in OECD (in pct. of GNP: 58 pct.) => Denmark is facing large public deficits in the years to come

12. The government has introduced following initiatives which is expected to enhance the economy  Members of unemployment insurance funds can receive unemployment benefits for 2 years  A tax reform has given substantial tax income cuts in 2010 and 2011.  The annual financial agreements involves tax cuts and slowdown on public spending.  Restrictions on the municipalities budgets

13. The Danish labour market surveillance consists of: One year forecasting of the developments in employment.  One year forecasting of the developments in unemployment.  Current Regional labour market balances describing the match between labour supply and demand for 1.100 different job titles. All three tools are published twice a year.

14. The one year forecasts Because of the current rapid developments on the labour market forecasts are only being made with a one year horizon. The forecasts are based on the economic forecasts made by the Danish Ministry of Finance They show the monthly and quarterly expectations to the development in employment and unemployment

15. Expected development The unemployment is expected to decrease slowly during 2011 The employment is expected to stabilize / increase slowly during 2011

16. 03-07-2015 - 16 - The labour market balance model  Labour market balance – surveillance and frame for the tasks in the jobcenters  Survey to about 15.000 companies in the whole country twice a year  Status for about 1,100 different job categories  Gives the status of shortages and surpluss of the labour force at regional level  Identify the bottlenecks – severe shortages af labour  Shows in which areas mobility is needed from unemployed, when they have less possibility to find a job

17. 03-07-2015 - 17 - The labour market balance model – data sources

18. The labour market balances The danish labour market is divided in 4 different regions. Each region has its own labour market balance describing the match between labour supply and demand for 1.100 different jobtitles. On the basis of data on employment, unemployment, job vacancies and companies unsuccessful recruiting the jobtitles are divided into different categories.

19. The labour market balances Balance between supply and demand JobopportunitiesDefinition Severe and structural lack of labour Very good job opportunities Jobtitles with severe recruitment problems and extraordinary low unemployment Lack of labourJobtitles with recruitment problems and low unemployment Mismatch between supply and demand Jobtitles with recruitment problems and high unemployment Balance between supply and demand Good job opportunitiesJobtitles without recruitment problems and with low unemployment Excess of labourLimited job opportunities Jobtitles without recruitment problems with high unemployment and few jobvacancies.

20. 03-07-2015 - 20 - Labour market balance – active use  Frame of planning initiatives and of the daily activities in the jobcenters and other institutions working with labour market issues  Unemployed are obliged to seek jobs with positive employment possibilities  Activation offers must target jobs with positive employment possibilities  As a tool in the dialog with the targetgroups in the employment system  Basis of the guidance dialog according to choise of education/training, especially for young people  Contact to companies starts in the ”balance”

21. To prevent the worst consequences of the downturn in the economy the focus of the Danish employment effort is on:  Bringing the unemployed back into job as soon as possible.  Motivating and encouraging unemployed to seek the jobs still available.  Using the labour market tools to upgrade unemployed persons with skills and knowledge in areas with good job opportunities.  Encouraging more young people to taking a formal education.