Presentation on theme: "Chapter 3 Describing Relationships"— Presentation transcript:
1Chapter 3 Describing Relationships 3.1 Scatterplots and Correlation3.2 Least-Squares Regression
2Section 3.1 Scatterplots and Correlation Learning TargetsAfter this section, you should be able to…IDENTIFY explanatory and response variablesCONSTRUCT scatterplots to display relationshipsINTERPRET scatterplotsMEASURE linear association using correlationINTERPRET correlation
33.1 – Scatterplots and Correlation When are some situations when we might want to examine a relationship between two variables?In this chapter we will deal with relationships and quantitative variables; the next chapter will deal with more categorical variables.Height & Heart AttacksWeight & Blood PressureHours studying & test scoresWhat else?
4Scatterplots and Correlation Explanatory and Response VariablesMost statistical studies examine data on more than one variable. In many of these settings, the two variables play different roles.Scatterplots and CorrelationDefinition:A response variable measures an outcome of a study.An explanatory variable may help explain or influencechanges in a response variable.The response variable is our dependent variable (traditionally y)The explanatory variable is our independent variable (traditionally x)
5Explanatory and Response Variables When we deal with cause and effect, there is always a definite response variable and explanatory variable.But calling one variable response and one variable explanatory doesn't necessarily mean that one causes change in the other.5
6Note: In many studies, the goal is to show that changes in one or more explanatory variables actually cause changes in a response variable. However, other explanatory-response relationships don’t involve direct causation.
72. Two explanatory variables: amount of debt and income. Do ---- Check your understanding: P- 1441.Explanatory variable :the number of cans of beer.Response variable :the blood alcohol level.2. Two explanatory variables: amount of debt and income.The response variable is stress caused by college debt.
8Scatterplots and Correlation Displaying Relationships: ScatterplotsThe most useful graph for displaying the relationship between two quantitative variables is a scatterplot.Scatterplots and CorrelationDefinition:A scatterplot shows the relationship between two quantitative variables measured on the same individuals. The values of one variable appear on the horizontal axis, and the values of the other variable appear on the vertical axis. Each individual in the data appears as a point on the graph.How to Make a ScatterplotDecide which variable should go on each axis.Remember, the eXplanatory variable goes on the X-axis!Label and scale your axes.Plot individual data values.
9When analyzing several-variable data, the same principles apply… Data Analysis Toolbox To answer a statistical question of interest involving one or more data sets, proceed as follows.DATAOrganize and examine the data. Answer the key questions.GRAPHSConstruct appropriate graphical displays.NUMERICAL SUMMARIESCalculate relevant summary statisticsINTERPRETATIONLook for overall patterns and deviationsWhen the overall pattern is regular, use a mathematical model to describe it.9
10Average Score: Response var ScatterplotsLet's say we wanted to examine the relationship between the percent of a state's high school seniors who took the SAT exam in 2005 and the mean SAT Math score in state that year. A scatterplot is an effective way to graphically represent our data.But first, what is the explanatory variable and what is the response variable in this situation?Percent Taking: Explanatory var,Average Score: Response var10
11ScatterplotsOnce we decide on the response and explanatory variables, we can create a scatterplot.response variableexplanatory variable11
12Scatterplots and Correlation Displaying Relationships: ScatterplotsMake a scatterplot of the relationship between body weight and pack weight.Since Body weight is our eXplanatory variable, be sure to place it on the X-axis!Scatterplots and CorrelationBody weight (lb)120187109103131165158116Backpack weight (lb)26302429353128
13Scatterplots and Correlation Interpreting ScatterplotsTo interpret a scatterplot, follow the basic strategy of data analysis from Chapters 1 and 2. Look for patterns and important departures from those patterns.Scatterplots and CorrelationHow to Examine a ScatterplotAs in any graph of data, look for the overall pattern and for striking departures from that pattern.You can describe the overall pattern of a scatterplot by the direction, form, and strength of the relationship.An important kind of departure is an outlier, an individual value that falls outside the overall pattern of the relationship.Note: there is no outlier rule for bivariate data (like 1.5xIQR)Must use definition.
14Scatterplots and Correlation Interpreting ScatterplotsScatterplots and CorrelationOutlierThere is one possible outlier, the hiker with the body weight of 187 pounds seems to be carrying relatively less weight than are the other group members.StrengthDirectionFormThere is a moderately strong, positive, linear relationship between body weight and pack weight.It appears that lighter students are carrying lighter backpacks.
15Positive vs. NegativeDefinition:Two variables have a POSITIVE ASSOCIATION when above-average values of one tend to accompany above-average values of the other, and when below-average values also tend to occur together.Two variables have a NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION when above-average values of one tend to accompany below-average values of the other.
16Scatterplots and Correlation Interpreting ScatterplotsEample: P- 144 : Linking SAT Math and Critical Reading ScoresScatterplots and CorrelationStrengthConsider the SAT example from page Interpret the scatterplot.DirectionFormThere is a moderately strong, negative, curved relationship between the percent of students in a state who take the SAT and the mean SAT math score.Further, there are two distinct clusters of states and two possible outliers that fall outside the overall pattern.
17Overall Pattern Direction: negative (or none) positive Form: Strength: how closely they follow formnegativepositive(or none)linearnonlinearr-value
18Scatterplots and Correlation Measuring Linear Association: Correlation (r)A scatterplot displays the strength, direction, and form of the relationship between two quantitative variables.Linear relationships are important because a straight line is a simplepattern that is quite common. Unfortunately, our eyes are notgood judges of how strong a linear relationship is.Scatterplots and CorrelationDefinition:The correlation r measures the strength of the linear relationship between two quantitative variables.r is always a number between -1 and 1r > 0 indicates a positive association.r < 0 indicates a negative association.Values of r near 0 indicate a very weak linear relationship.The strength of the linear relationship increases as r moves away from 0 towards -1 or 1.The extreme values r = -1 and r = 1 occur only in the case of a perfect linear relationship.
19Scatterplots and Correlation Measuring Linear Association: CorrelationScatterplots and Correlation
20AP EXAM COMMON ERROR: DESCRIBING A SCATTERPLOT REMEMBER: DOFS Direction Outlier Form Strength
23Do Check Your Understanding, page 149: 1. The relationship is positive. The longer the duration of the eruption, the longer the wait between eruptions is. One reason for this may be that if the geyser erupted for longer, it expended more energy and it will take longer to build up the energy needed to erupt again.2. The form is roughly linear with two clusters. The clusters indicate that in general there are two types of eruptions, one shorter, the other somewhat longer.
243. The relationship is fairly strong 3. The relationship is fairly strong. Two points define a line and in this case we could think of each cluster as a point, so the two clusters seem to define a line. 4. There are a few outliers around the clusters, but not many and not very distant from the main grouping of points. 5. The Starnes family needs to know how long the last eruption was in order to predict how long it will be until the next one.
25Scatterplots and Correlation The formula for r is a bit complex. It helps us to see what correlation is, but in practice, you should use your calculator or software to find r.Scatterplots and CorrelationHow to Calculate the Correlation rSuppose that we have data on variables x and y for n individuals.The values for the first individual are x1 and y1, the values for the second individual are x2 and y2, and so on.The means and standard deviations of the two variables are x-bar and sx for the x-values and y-bar and sy for the y-values.The correlation r between x and y is:
26Scatterplots and Correlation Facts about CorrelationHow correlation behaves is more important than the details of the formula. Here are some important facts about r.Scatterplots and CorrelationCorrelation makes no distinction between explanatory and response variables.r does not change when we change the units of measurement of x, y, or both.The correlation r itself has no unit of measurement.Cautions:Correlation requires that both variables be quantitative.Correlation does not describe curved relationships between variables, no matter how strong the relationship is.Correlation is not resistant. r is strongly affected by a few outlying observations.Correlation is not a complete summary of two-variable data.
27Scatterplots and Correlation Correlation PracticeFor each graph, estimate the correlation r and interpret it in context.Scatterplots and Correlation
28How to find r from the calculator: Stat , Calc, 8: LinReg(a+bx) L1, L2 ( Make sure , the Diagnostic should be on).
29Exp var: list L1 Res var : list L2 2ND STAT PLOT, PLOT 1 ON, TYPE ( CHOOSE FIRST ONE FOR SCATTERPLOT) , X LIST : L1 , Y LIST L2, ZOOM 9, ENTER
30Section 3.1 Scatterplots and Correlation SummaryIn this section, we learned that…A scatterplot displays the relationship between two quantitative variables.An explanatory variable may help explain, predict, or cause changes in a response variable.When examining a scatterplot, look for an overall pattern showing the direction, form, and strength of the relationship and then look for outliers or other departures from the pattern.The correlation r measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two quantitative variables.
31Looking Ahead… In the next Section… We’ll learn how to describe linear relationships between two quantitative variables.We’ll learnLeast-squares Regression linePredictionResiduals and residual plotsThe Role of r2 in RegressionCorrelation and Regression WisdomIn the next Section…