1. MAKING ALL THINGS NEW: Understanding Technical and Adaptive Change Pacifica Synod Assembly Keynote Address #2 By: Craig Van Gelder, Ph.D. Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

2. SECTION I THE GREAT UNRAVELING AND ASKING DIFFERENT QUESTIONS Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

3. The Challenge Today the great unravelling… Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

4. Now Seeing Decline of the Euro- Tribal Faith Traditions in NA Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

5. 1. How to make the church grow? 2. How to get people into church? 3. How to meet needs and help? Church Questions as Misdirecting Questions Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

6. in a great unravelling we need to ask different questions Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

7. Need to Ask the “God” Questions in Midst of Disruption and Dislocation What is God up to out ahead of us in our neighborhoods? What is God up to out ahead of us in our neighborhoods? How do we participate more fully in what God is up to in our neighborhoods and communities? How do we participate more fully in what God is up to in our neighborhoods and communities? Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

8. BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVES ON DISRUPTION AND DISLOCATION Struggle to Discern the Spirit’s Leading Much Disruption and Dislocation result of massive cultural changes... BUT Much Disruption and Dislocation result of massive cultural changes... BUT Babylon (Jer. 29) Babylon (Jer. 29) Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

9. BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVES ON DISRUPTION AND DISLOCATION Struggle to Discern the Spirit’s Leading Much Disruption and Dislocation result of massive cultural changes... BUT Much Disruption and Dislocation result of massive cultural changes... BUT God’s Spirit also at work within times of Disruption and Dislocation God’s Spirit also at work within times of Disruption and Dislocation Babylon (Jer. 29) Babylon (Jer. 29) Antioch (Acts 11) Antioch (Acts 11) Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

10. SECTION II: UNDERSTANDING TECHNICAL AND ADAPTIVE CHANGE PROCESSES Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

11. Understanding the Difference Between Technical Change Technical Change Adaptive Change Adaptive Change Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

12. Utilizing Technical Change to Address Presenting Issues Technical Problem is typically clear and can be named Problem is typically clear and can be named Known methods are available to solve the challenge Known methods are available to solve the challenge Expertise is available to use for addressing the challenge Expertise is available to use for addressing the challenge Basic approach is to use a planning model (e.g. strategic planning) Basic approach is to use a planning model (e.g. strategic planning) Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

13. Utilizing Technical Change to Address Presenting Issues Technical Problem is typically clear and can be named Problem is typically clear and can be named Known methods are available to solve the challenge Known methods are available to solve the challenge Expertise is available to use for addressing the challenge Expertise is available to use for addressing the challenge Basic approach is to use a planning model (e.g. strategic planning Basic approach is to use a planning model (e.g. strategic planningExamples 1. Congregation—Develop a short-term missions program 2. Congregation—Start a 2 nd service Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

14. STRATEGIC PLANNING AS PRIMARY MODE OF OPERATION IN ADDRESSING THE TECHNICAL SWOC—the environmental scan SWOC—the environmental scan V/M/V V/M/V Values Values Mission (purpose) Mission (purpose) Vision Vision S/G/O S/G/O Strategies Strategies Goals Goals Objectives Objectives Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

15. The Logic of Goals with Planned Strategies Communication of Information Communication of Information Education and Training Education and Training Programs to Provide Services Programs to Provide Services Restructure the Organization Restructure the Organization Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

16. BUT TECHNICAL PLANNING APPROACHES ARE OFTEN INSUFFICIENT IN BEING ABLE TO ADDRESS MANY OF THE SYSTEMIC ISSUES NOW BEING FACED Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

17. Utilizing Adaptive Change to Address Systemic Issues Adaptive Real challenge underlying presenting issues murky Real challenge underlying presenting issues murky New learning is required to address the challenge New learning is required to address the challenge God’s ordinary people on the front lines innovating experimental change God’s ordinary people on the front lines innovating experimental change Basic approach: use a discernment approach (e.g. communal Spirit-led learning) Basic approach: use a discernment approach (e.g. communal Spirit-led learning) Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

18. THE ADAPTIVE CHALLENGE QUESTION: “What issue(s) are we currently facing, for which we presently do not have an answer, but which we must address, if we are to live into God’s future? Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

19. SECTION III: IDENTIFYING UNDERLYING ADAPTIVE CHALLENGES Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

20. Example #1: Theological Education Presenting Issues Rising student debt Rising student debt Increase part-time students Increase part-time students Less resident campus participation Less resident campus participation Declining enrollments Declining enrollments Availability of virtual & non-formal alternatives Availability of virtual & non-formal alternatives Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

21. Example #1: Theological Education Presenting Issues Declining enrollments Declining enrollments Rising student debt Rising student debt Increase part-time students Increase part-time students Less resident campus participation Less resident campus participation Availability of non-formal and virtual alternatives Availability of non-formal and virtual alternatives Adaptive Challenge We have created an approach to graduate theological education that for many is not affordable or financially sustainable, which is also increasingly out of step with many in the next generation of church leaders. Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

22. Example #2: Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Declining number of family farms in area—losing people historically “like us” Declining number of family farms in area—losing people historically “like us” Members aging with fewer children in area Members aging with fewer children in area Plateaued finances Plateaued finances Influx immigrant Mexican American farm workers Influx immigrant Mexican American farm workers Influx immigrant Laotian workers at turkey processing plant Influx immigrant Laotian workers at turkey processing plant Influx migrant retirement population around the lakes Influx migrant retirement population around the lakes Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

23. Example #2: Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Declining number of family farms in area—losing people historically “like us” Declining number of family farms in area—losing people historically “like us” Members aging with fewer children in area Members aging with fewer children in area Plateaued finances Plateaued finances Influx immigrant Mexican American farm workers Influx immigrant Mexican American farm workers Influx immigrant Laotian workers at turkey processing plant Influx immigrant Laotian workers at turkey processing plant Influx migrant retirement population around the lakes Influx migrant retirement population around the lakes Adaptive Challenge We have chosen to become a maintenance ministry to serve our own members for as long as we have sufficient resources to do so, and then we expect to close. Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

24. Example #3: City-Neighborhood Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Changing ethnicity of neighborhood Changing ethnicity of neighborhood First wave African American First wave African American Second wave Hispanic immigrants Second wave Hispanic immigrants Members moved out and driving back Members moved out and driving back Declining membership and plateaued finances Declining membership and plateaued finances Fewer young families with children Fewer young families with children Programs to meet needs of community Programs to meet needs of community Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

25. Example #3: City-Neighborhood Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Changing ethnicity of neighborhood Changing ethnicity of neighborhood First wave African American First wave African American Second wave Hispanic immigrants Second wave Hispanic immigrants Members moved out and driving back Members moved out and driving back Declining membership and plateaued finances Declining membership and plateaued finances Fewer young families with children Fewer young families with children Programs to meet needs of community Programs to meet needs of community Adaptive Challenge Our congregation has yet to develop genuine relationships with the “other” in our neighborhood where there is a reciprocity of mutual sharing and learning, and we are not sure we really want to do this. Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

26. Example #4: Suburban Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Significant growth 1950s- 60s from baby-boom Significant growth 1950s- 60s from baby-boom Peaked out early 1970s Peaked out early 1970s Added gym early 1980s— last phase master plan Added gym early 1980s— last phase master plan Continues emphasis on youth ministry—fewer kids Continues emphasis on youth ministry—fewer kids Searching for pastor to bring back the golden years Searching for pastor to bring back the golden years Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

27. Example #4: Suburban Congregation in a Changing Context Presenting Issues Significant growth 1950s- 60s from baby-boom Significant growth 1950s- 60s from baby-boom Peaked out early 1970s Peaked out early 1970s Added gym early 1980s— last phase master plan Added gym early 1980s— last phase master plan Continues emphasis on youth ministry—fewer kids Continues emphasis on youth ministry—fewer kids Searching for pastor to bring back the golden years Searching for pastor to bring back the golden years Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015 Adaptive Challenge Our congregation’s obsolete vision of the past has locked us into a ministry style that is disconnected from our present context and ministry opportunities and we do not know how to change this.

28. Example #5: Regional Governing Structure Presenting Issues Declining membership overall in congregations Declining membership overall in congregations Plateaued finances for regional ministry Plateaued finances for regional ministry Fewer persons willing to serve regional work Fewer persons willing to serve regional work Several failed traditional church plants past decade Several failed traditional church plants past decade Increasing culture of complaint and criticism Increasing culture of complaint and criticism Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

29. Example #5: Regional Governing Structure Presenting Issues Declining membership overall in congregations Declining membership overall in congregations Plateaued finances for regional ministry Plateaued finances for regional ministry Fewer persons willing to serve regional work Fewer persons willing to serve regional work Several failed traditional church plants past decade Several failed traditional church plants past decade Increasing culture of complaint and criticism Increasing culture of complaint and criticism Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015 Adaptive Challenge We are bound to a set of polity practices that no longer generate energy, do not provide clarity of ministry direction, and are expensive to maintain; but we do not know how to reinvent them.

30. Example #6: National Denominational Agencies Presenting Issues Declining membership Declining membership Membership Declining since1960s Membership Declining since1960s Declining finances Declining finances More restricted giving More restricted giving Re-Structuring efforts Re-Structuring efforts Four (4) downsizings last 20 years Four (4) downsizings last 20 years Increased Diversity Increased Diversity Theological and social-cultural diversity Theological and social-cultural diversity Re-vitalization Initiatives Re-vitalization Initiatives Thirteen (13) national initiatives to revitalize last 40 years—all failed Thirteen (13) national initiatives to revitalize last 40 years—all failed Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

31. Example #6: National Denominational Agencies Presenting Issues Declining membership Declining membership Membership Declining since1960s Membership Declining since1960s Declining finances Declining finances More restricted giving More restricted giving Re-Structuring efforts Re-Structuring efforts Four (4) downsizings last 20 years Four (4) downsizings last 20 years Increased Diversity Increased Diversity Theological and social-cultural diversity Theological and social-cultural diversity Re-vitalization Initiatives Re-vitalization Initiatives Thirteen (13) national initiatives to revitalize last 40 years—all failed Thirteen (13) national initiatives to revitalize last 40 years—all failed Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015 Adaptive Challenge We continue to be trapped in our expectations that denominational agencies initiate and lead ministry, funded by congregations out of loyalty and shared vision, and we do not know what to do to break this pattern.

32. The Logic of the Adaptive Change Process Spirit of God is out ahead of us with... Spirit of God is out ahead of us with... God’s ordinary people participating in Spirit- led communal discernment and... God’s ordinary people participating in Spirit- led communal discernment and... Engaging in a variety of experiments to... Engaging in a variety of experiments to... Discover new ways to address the adaptive challenges confronting them Discover new ways to address the adaptive challenges confronting them Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

33. SECTION IV: UTILIZING DISCERNMENT IN TAKING A SPIRIT-LED JOURNEY AND DESIGNING EXPERIMENTS Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

34. Process of Living within Liminal Spaces While Engaging the God Questions Journey Discernment Discernment Experimenting Experimenting Reflecting Reflecting Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

35. The Logic of Action Learning We behave our way into new thinking! Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

36. An Experiment—Behaving One’s Way into New Thinking Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

37. An Experiment—Behaving One’s Way into New Thinking Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

38. The Emerging Denomination 21 st Century Some Hub-Spoke With Top-Down Increased Distributed with Bottom-Up Learning Networks Copyright Craig Van Gelder 2015

39. DISCUSSION