1 Project Title: Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (E-CAT) Kickoff Template Submission Date: 1/5/15Adam Rose (PI), Fynn Prager (RT lead), Zhenhua Chen, Nat Heatwole, Dan Wei, Sam Chatterjee, Eric Warren
2 Project Objectives: Research Goals Research Transition Goals Develop a quick turn-around capability to estimate economic consequences of 30+ HSNRC threat typesEnhance pioneering CREATE CGE analysis on economic consequence analysis (ECA) to a broad set of threatsIncorporate uncertainty on the input & output sidesResearch Transition GoalsTransition the research into user-friendly software for use at high levels of DHSProvide training materials & workshops on model usePublish numerous peer-reviewed journal articles & a possibly a book
3 DHS Interest and Motivation: Why is DHS interestedCREATE has done pioneering work on ECADHS needs rapid ECA estimates for high-level analysisECAT can inform policy decision-making, such as cost-benefit analyses and risk analyses, around policy measures to counter threatsWho at DHS are your contactsDebra Elkins (Strategic Planning and Risk)Joseph Simons (Strategic Planning and Risk)
4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders: Who else (operators/customers) could be interested in your research transition?Other Federal: FEMA, TSA, Office of PolicyU.S. MilitaryState: Cal EMAInsurance industry
5 Interfaces to Related Research (Who else is working on this)Reduced form modeling recently done by Peter Dixon translating CGE results into elasticity parameters for nuclear threats in a DNDO project (Rose, PI).Heatwole & Rose developed reduced form regression analysis for earthquake threats (basic data, not CGE)(Interfaces with others in this field)CGE modelingRisk analysisEconomic resilienceBehavioral psychology
6 Research Technical Plan: Refine conceptual frameworkPrepare USCGE ModelEngage transition team (Erroll & SPAR)Develop reduced-form approachIdentify & specify consequence typesIncorporate uncertaintyPerform reduced-form analysisDevelop software (Excel+VBA)Develop & Offer a Short-Course
7 Research Transition Plan: Engage with DHS SPAR officials regularly throughout research process to facilitate smoother transitionIdentify and engage with other potential users at state and federal levelsDevelop training materials to accompany toolIdentify & develop pioneering (& hence publishable) elements of the projectWork with Erroll Southers to explore opportunities for broader dissemination of research work
8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline: 1: Establish a work plan in conjunction with SPAR and S&T OUP (August 15, 2014). 2: Develop a refined checklist of econ consequences integrated across the set of risks DHS faces (November 15, 2014). 3: Explore alternative approaches: Check-list populated by entries & bounds from the literature & CGE modeling simulations to yield “data” for regression analysis (January 31, 2015) 4: Incorporate uncertainty into the analysis (March 1, 2015) 5: Develop and finalize a spreadsheet capability (April 30, 2015). 6: Offer a 4-hour short-course (ideally onsite at DHS) on the use of the model, model features & options for future research & capability development leveraging higher-end approaches by May 30, (Ideally, CREATE graduate interns, who will be working onsite at DHS during the summer, will support the short-course offering).