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The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University.

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Presentation on theme: "The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology

2 Prospects: long term price stability Perspectives: policy makers and lawyers major component of energy security.. they are different...they are many. investors electricity grid and market operators This talk is about: substantial helpful effect on climate re-think way we run power system 1

3 substantial helpful effect on climate European level: About 25-30% of efforts Global: the stabilization triangle Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu 200 Gt, in next 50 years: Each wedge: GT/year Install 2TW of wind; provide about 5 PWh 2

4 Were coupling our energy system to climate patterns, and to weather patterns. Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition, Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001 Regional-but renewable Variable, but predictable. 3

5 Will climate change affect wind power projects? Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007 Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007 Rough reasoning anticipates future reduction in yield…..detailed models confirm. Effect varies over globe; depends on local features; hard to predict. 4

6 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? wind energy conversion requires momentum transfer. 5

7 Brand 2009 minimum safe distance (2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometers the recovery distance (1% Deficit): hundreds of kilometers. Christiansen and Hasager 2005 Wake effect: becoming of legal interest Will wind power projects cause climate changes? 6 Brand 2009

8 Change global mean temperature? Wind power affects crops, local weather? Detectable but negligible compared to anthropogenic forcing. Keith, 2004 First indication: helpful or neutral; but research just starting Takel, 2011 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? 7

9 Physical Potential Is there even that much wind power? 8 Hoogwijk 2004

10 Technical: 96 PWh/year, Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 /kWh 21 PWhr/year at /kWh versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumption of global electricity consumption Is there even that much wind power? 9 Hoogwijk 2004

11 3 PWh/year European electricity consumption in 2008: Is there even that much wind power? Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ. 10 Hoogwijk 2004

12 As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developed As of 2010: perhaps 0.4%. How much has been built? Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM (vs bond market 90 T USD) Europe: to meet EU targets, billion a year (vs bond market 23 T, GDP of Europe: 16T) Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year Is there enough money to build it all? Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27% (doubles every ~3 years) 11 Source: GWEC

13 Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance 12 Samec 2011

14 Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment 30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL) nuclear coal wind Total system load: Inflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit: Cycling of units uncomfortable; Need emerges for new types 13

15 Variability and Uncertainty Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms. Provision always existed for changes: both anticipated and unexpected. 14 Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010 Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009

16 Farm-level control using pitch Wind speed (m/s) Power production (MW) 0 minutes 2 Soft Storm Transition or Storm Control: Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND Image credit: upwind.eu Image credit: upwind.eu Example: Denmark First to pioneer controllable wind power, because forecasts not perfect. 15

17 Example: Denmark 16 Image credit: Energinet

18 Switched Power Electronics Interfaces Synchronous Machine (traditional) simple, fixed, strong Power Electronic Interface Complex, flexible, relatively fragile 17

19 An island electric power system Must be mostly self- sufficient, even for short periods Hirvonen 2003 Example: Ireland Contingency event: Loss of big generator, or introduction of big load In first instances: Need to use energy stored in systems rotating masses 18

20 2008/2009 range of operation 60-70% System splits in half, collapses % System collapses immediately Wind turbine rotors not forced to be synchronous: -> several related problems Example: Ireland 19 Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, Final Study Report

21 Image credit: RED Eléctrica España formerly allowed disconnect level new requirement typical transient Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc) generators can help by staying connected, in spite of voltage transient: Example: Spain 20 Bömer 2011

22 Example: Spain Wind power production behaviour *before* ride- through requirement: nuclear sized dips. How are the worst situations avoided? 21 Image credit: RED Eléctrica España

23 ! Image credit: RED Eléctrica España 22

24 Were coupling our energy system to the climate in a new way. Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits Wrapping up: Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expected From all these perspectives, which ideas to take home ? 23


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