1. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 1 THE PREFECT STORM

2. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 2 RMS v11 Change Factors Key factors causing increase: 1.Non-Coastal wind risk increasing due to information from Ike and Gustav that indicated inland losses were greater than previously modeled 2.Claims data from Hurricane Ike demonstrated that roofs frequently fail at much lower wind speeds than had previously been expected given the understanding of construction quality and building codes a.Provided hard evidence of poorer than expected construction quality due to a lack of understanding and enforcement of building codes in Texas b.Resulted in a re-examination of code enforcement and building practices in many other U.S. states and associated increases in those regions as well 3.Storm Surge –results in significant changes to accounts with coastal exposure

3. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 3 RMS v11 Potential Portfolio Impacts-Industry RMS provided quantitative estimates of potential impacts resulting from changes incorporated into v11 of their US Hurricane model* * RMS® North Atlantic Hurricane and Europe Windstorm Model Changes: Executive Briefing #3

4. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 4 RMS v11 - Variability Following illustrates the variability between portfolio’s. At the individual account level the variability will likely be even higher.

5. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 5 Data completeness With a growing volume of coastal assets at risk to tropical cyclones, insurers can mitigate risk by knowing the likelihood of a land-falling storm not only as it nears the coast but also before it has formed. Today’s leading-edge numerical weather prediction models combine with statistical techniques to make such analysis a reality. Methodologies for assessing potential damage from flooding and storm surge have improved significantly just in the last year or two, offering underwriters a better suite of tools to assess potential short-term and longer-term flooding hazards. For example, by pairing a database of mean sea level trends over the past 40 years with advanced catastrophic tropical cyclone simulation capabilities, researchers have been able to quantify the likelihood and scope of property damage because of flood in specific regions over the next 20 years. They determine that average annual losses from flood in the United States Gulf and East Coast regions, for example, will increase 18.6 percent (to $10.4 billion) over the next 20 years. The risks we face have grown increasingly volatile from both an environmental and exposure standpoint. To be useful, the data we employ to measure those risks must be consistent, complete, and easy to work with. Leading insurance carriers are increasingly working with private research organizations to integrate new data and technologies into their business practices to price and deliver products.

6. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 6 CLAIMS ACTIVITY

7. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 7 Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (storm) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Selection of significant loss events (see table) Natural catastrophes Earthquake, tsunami Japan, 11 March Earthquake New Zealand, 22 Feb Cyclone Yasi Australia, 2 Feb Landslides, flash floods Brazil, 12/16 Jan Floods, flash floods Australia, Dec 2010-Jan 2011 Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 22–28 April Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 20–25 May Wildfires USA, May–June Earthquake New Zealand, 13 June Floods USA, April–June Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Number of events: 355 Natural loss events January – June 2011 World map Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

8. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 8 Worldwide Natural Disasters 2011 January – June only Earthquake New Zealand Earthquake Japan Tornadoes, Wildfires, Floods US Floods Australia Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

9. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 9 Natural Catastrophes, 2011 Overview and comparison with previous years Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

10. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 10 Costliest Natural Catastrophes Since 1950 Rank by insured losses Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

11. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 11 Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011* (Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions) *Through June 20, 2011. 2011 disaster figures are estimates; Figures include federally insured flood losses, where applicable. Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; AIR Worldwide, RMS, Eqecat; Insurance Information Institute. Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado season would likely become the 9 th costliest event in global insurance history 3 of the top 15 most expensive catastrophes in world history have occurred in the past 18 months

12. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 12 Natural Disaster Losses in the United States First Six months 2011 © 2011 Munich Re

13. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 13 U.S. Winter Storm Loss Trends Annual totals 1980 – 2010 vs. First Half 2011 Average annual winter storm losses have increased over 50% since 1980. First Half 2011 $1.4 billion Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

14. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 14 Lower Mississippi Flood of 2011 Heavy snowmelt, saturated soils, and over 20 inches of rain in a month lead to the worst flooding of the lower Mississippi River since 1927. Record river crests at Vicksburg and Natchez; Morganza Spillway opened in Louisiana to protect Baton Rouge and New Orleans from possible levee failures. Extensive agricultural damage, property, and inland marine losses due to flood. >Economic Losses: $2 billion Insured Losses: Estimation in Progress Heavy snowmelt, saturated soils, and over 20 inches of rain in a month lead to the worst flooding of the lower Mississippi River since 1927. Record river crests at Vicksburg and Natchez; Morganza Spillway opened in Louisiana to protect Baton Rouge and New Orleans from possible levee failures. Extensive agricultural damage, property, and inland marine losses due to flood. >Economic Losses: $2 billion Insured Losses: Estimation in Progress April 2011 © 2011 Munich Re

15. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 15 Other Notable Floods of 2011 Similar to the triggers of the Mississippi River flood, heavy rains in the northern plains states and the melting of a heavy snowpack in the Rockies resulted in severe flooding along several river systems, including the: >Missouri River: Numerous breached levees (some intentional to prevent flooding in densely populated regions), agriculture and transportation networks severely disrupted, Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant threatened, but no damage. >Souris River: Record flood levels at Minot, North Dakota. Levees were overtopped by flood waters; an estimated 11,000 residents (25% of Minot’s population) was evacuated. Similar to the triggers of the Mississippi River flood, heavy rains in the northern plains states and the melting of a heavy snowpack in the Rockies resulted in severe flooding along several river systems, including the: >Missouri River: Numerous breached levees (some intentional to prevent flooding in densely populated regions), agriculture and transportation networks severely disrupted, Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant threatened, but no damage. >Souris River: Record flood levels at Minot, North Dakota. Levees were overtopped by flood waters; an estimated 11,000 residents (25% of Minot’s population) was evacuated. June 2011 © 2011 Munich Re

16. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 16 Outlook for 2011 Hurricane Season: 75% More Active Than Average Average*2005 (Katrina Year) 2011F Named Storms9.62816 Named Storm Days49.1115.580 Hurricanes5.9149 Hurricane Days24.547.535 Intense Hurricanes2.375 Intense Hurricane Days5.0710 Accumulated Cyclone Energy96.1NA160 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity100%275%175% * Average over the period 1950-2000. Source: Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, June 1, 2011.

17. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 17

18. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 18 OTHER EVENTS Very active thunderstorm (tornado-hail) season with insured losses exceeding $16 billion, far above the 2001 to 2010 January – June average thunderstorm loss of $6.4 billion (in 2010 Dollars). It was also the deadliest thunderstorm season in over 50 years. Extensive severe flooding events in Midwest and Great Plains Large, damaging wildfires in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico. Major blizzard and ice storm in Midwest; severe freezing conditions in Southwest Seasonal forecasts indicate “active” hurricane season; neither El Niño or La Niña conditions are expected to be a factor this year

19. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 19 Probability of Major Hurricane Landfall (CAT 3, 4, 5) in 2011 Average*2011F Entire US Coast52%72% US East Coast Including Florida Peninsula 31%48% Gulf Coast from FL Panhandle to Brownsville, TX 30%47% ALSO…Above-Average Major Hurricane Landfall Risk in Caribbean for 2011 (61% vs. 42%) * Average over the period 1950-2000. Source: Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, June 1, 2011.

20. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 20 HURRICANE IRENE - BY THE NUMBERS 1 st since Hurricane Ike (9/2008) to hit USA 1 st to threaten NYC since Hurricane Gloria (9/1985) Similar in size to Hurricane Katrina Irene - 290 miles Katrina – 230 miles River flooding records broken in 26 rivers NJ (8); NY (14); Vermont (4) 2.3 million people evacuated 10,000 flights cancelled Amtrak shut down its Northeast corridor 10 th Billion dollar event in 2011

21. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 21 FINANCIAL IMPACT

22. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 22 A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs Combined Ratio / ROE * 2009 and 2010 figures are return on average statutory surplus. 2008 -2011 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data. Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s Depressed Investment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs A combined ratio of about 100 generated ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10, 10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979

23. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 23 P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute. Finally! Back-to-back quarters of net written premium growth (vs. the same quarter, prior year) The long-awaited uptick. In 2011:Q1 occurring in personal lines predominating cos. (+3.8%) and commercial lines predominating cos. (+3.5%)

24. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 24 Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2011:Q1 1 Investment Gains Recovered Significantly in 2010 Due to Realized Investment Gains; The Financial Crisis Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in 2008 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. ($ Billions) Investment gains in 2010 were the best since 2007

25. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 25 US Policyholder Surplus: 1975–2011* * As of 3/31/11. Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. “Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations ($ Billions) The Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Stood at $0.77:$1 as of 3/31/11, A Near Record Low (at Least in Recent History)** Surplus as of 3/31/11 was a record $564.7B, up from $437.1B at the crisis trough at 3/31/09. Prior peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 3/31/11 was 8.2% above 2007 peak; Crisis trough was as of 3/31/09  16.2% below 2007 peak.

26. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 26 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2011:Q1 Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. ($ Billions) 2007:Q3 Previous Surplus Peak Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2007:Q3 Peak 09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%) 09:Q3: -$31.0B (-5.9%) 09:Q4: -$10.3B (-2.0%) 10:Q1: +$18.9B (+3.6%) 10:Q2: +$8.7B (+1.7%) 10:Q3: +$23.0B (+4.4%) 10:Q4: +$35.1B (+6.7%) 11:Q4: +$42.9B (+8.2%) Surplus set a new record in 2011:Q1* *Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business in early 2010. The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.77 of NPW—the strongest claims- paying status in its history.

27. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 27 Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but Growth Returned: More in 2011? (Percent) 1975-781984-872000-03 *2011 figure is an estimate based on Q1 data. Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3- Year Decline Since 1930-33. NWP was up 0.9% in 2010 2011:Q1 growth was +3.5%; First Q1 growth since 2007

28. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 28 RESPONSIVENESS

29. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 29 The Lexington Advantage – Claims Catastrophe Advantage Program (CAP) – innovative modeling technology to more effectively plan for and manage impending CAT events Service agreements in place with independent adjuster resources who stand ready to respond to a major wind or earthquake CAT event Earthquake Preparedness Program – established panel of earthquake adjusters, engineers, and building consultants available to respond to claims in the wake of an event Major Loss Event (MLE) – a major loss reporting process to alert property staff of potential large property exposures on a world wide basis iClaims – the latest paperless technology to scan and automatically route all claims information to the appropriate claims specialist

30. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 30 Property Claims Group Simulated CAT event testing –Regularly test systems, processes, procedures, and resources under simulated CAT event scenarios to ensure readiness for a real event 24 hour response time for claims acknowledgement Streamlined resolution of property losses*, including: –Early assessment of loss for advance payment –Waiving of partial Proofs of Loss –Express mailing of settlement checks –Waiving of settlement holdbacks Operational benchmarks for customer service including: –Communication –Advance payments –Written claim acknowledgement

31. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 31 Insureds should know if their insurer has the experience and infrastructure to stand and deliver in the wake of a CAT loss. Advocacy and access matter. Insureds and their brokers should have a relationship with senior property underwriting and claims management. CAT events result in a rush of claim activity. Earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, winter storms, wildfires, etc. can result in an immediate need for supplemental professional staff. Insureds should know if their insurer has a plan. Ask the Right Questions 31

32. 2011-BudgetAnalysis_v1.pptx 32 Thank You for Your Attendance and Participation! Patricia Chase Vice President