1. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-1 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 PERTEMUAN 1

2. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-2 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Materi Riset Operasi Bisnis dan Industri Pemrograman Linear Teori Permainan Teori Keputusan Model Peramalan Model Pengendalian Persediaan Metode Transportasi Masalah Penugasan Manajemen Proyek Model Antrian Model Rantai Markov

3. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-3 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

4. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-4 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Learning Objectives Students will be able to:  Describe the quantitative analysis approach  Understand the application of QA in a real situation  Describe the use of modeling in QA  Use computers and spreadsheet models to perform QA  Discuss possible problems in using quantitative analysis  Perform breakeven analysis

5. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-5 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Chapter Outline 1.1 Introduction 1.2 What is Quantitative Analysis (QA) 1.3 The QA Approach 1.4 How to Develop a QA Model 1.5 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models in the QA Approach 1.6 Possible Problems in the QA Approach 1.7 Implementation - Not Just the Final Step

6. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-6 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Introduction Mathematical tools have been used for thousands of years QA can be applied to a wide variety of problems One must understand: the specific applicability of the technique, its limitations and its assumptions

7. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-7 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 Expert Systems and Artificial Intelligence Decision Support Information System Goal Programming Decision Theory Network Models Dynamic Programming Game Theory Transportation Assignment Technique Inventory Control Queuing Theory Markov Analysis The Evolution of QA

8. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-8 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Problem Quant.Analysis Logic Historic Data Marketing Research Scientific Analysis Modeling Qual. Analysis Weather State and federal legislation New technological breakthroughs Election outcome Decision ? The Decision-Making Process

9. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-9 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Scientific Approach to Managerial Decision Making Consider both Quantitative and Qualitative Factors Raw Data Quantitative Analysis Meaningful Information Overview of Quantitative Analysis Overview of Quantitative Analysis

10. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-10 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 The Quantitative Analysis Approach Define the problem Develop a model Acquire data Develop a solution Test the solution Analyze the results and perform sensitivity analysis Implement the results

11. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-11 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 The QA Approach - Fig 1.1 Define the Problem Develop a Model Acquire Input Data Develop a Solution Test the Solution Analyze the Results Implement the Results

12. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-12 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Define the Problem All else depends on this Clear and concise statement required May be the most difficult step Must go beyond symptoms to causes Problems are related to one another Must identify the “right” problem May require specific, measurable objectives

13. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-13 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Develop the Model Model: representation of a situation Models: physical, logical, scale, schematic or mathematical Models: variables (controllable or uncontrollable) and parameters Controllable variables  decision variables Models must be: solvable realistic easy to understand easy to modify

14. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-14 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Acquire Data Accurate data is essential (GIGO) Data from: company reports company documents interviews on-site direct measurement statistical sampling

15. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-15 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Develop a Solution Manipulate the model, find the “best” solution Solution: practical implementable Various methods: solution of equation(s) trial and error complete enumeration implementation of algorithm

16. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-16 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Test the Solution Must test both Input data Model Determine: Accuracy Completeness of input data collect data from a different sources and compare Check results for consistency Do they make sense? Test before analysis!

17. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-17 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Analyze the Results Understand the actions implied by the solution Determine the implications of the action Conduct sensitivity analysis - change input value or model parameter and see what happens Use sensitivity analysis to help gain understanding of problem (as well as for answers)

18. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-18 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Implement the Results Incorporate the solution into the company Monitor the results Use the results of the model and sensitivity analysis to help you sell the solution to management

19. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-19 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Modeling in the Real World Models are complex Models can be expensive Models can be difficult to sell real worldrealorganizations real problemsModels are used in the real world by real organizations to solve real problems

20. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-20 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 How to Develop a QA Model Profits = Revenue - Expenses Profits = Revenue (Price per Unit)  (Number Sold) Expenses - Fixed Cost - (Variable Cost/Unit)  (Number Sold) Profits = $10Q - $1,000 - $5Q Profit

21. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-21 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 How to Develop a QA Model Breakeven Point Set Revenue = 0 PQ - F – VQ = 0 Then F = PQ – VQ And: Q = F/(P – V) Q = quantity sold F = fixed cost V = variable cost/unit Breakeven Quantity = F/(P-V)

22. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-22 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Models Can Help Managers to Gain deeper insight into the nature of business relationships Find better ways to assess values in such relationships; and See a way of reducing, or at least understanding, uncertainty that surrounds business plans and actions

23. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-23 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Models Are less expensive and disruptive than experimenting with real world systems What ifAllow “What if” questions to be asked Are built for management problems and encourage management input Enforce consistency in approach Require specific constraints and goals

24. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-24 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Models: The Up Side Models Accurately represent reality Help a decision maker understand the problem Save time and money in problem solving and decision making Help communicate problems and solutions to others Provide the only way to solve large or complex problems in a timely fashion

25. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-25 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Models: The Down Side Models May be expensive and time- consuming to develop and test Are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical complexity Tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information Often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world

26. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-26 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Using Models (from Dr. J.N.D. Gupta) Some Suggestions Use descriptive models Understand why the managers involved decide things the way they do Identify managerial and organizational changes required by the model Analyze each situation in terms of its impact on management Prepare a realistic cost/benefit analysis of tradeoffs of alternate solutions

27. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-27 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Mathematical Models Characterized by Risk Deterministic models - we know all values used in the model with certainty Probabilistic models - we know the probability that parameters in the model will take on a specific value

28. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-28 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 QM For Windows

29. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-29 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 QM For Windows

30. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-30 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Excel QM

31. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-31 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Excel QM’s Main Menu of Models

32. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-32 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Possible Problems in Using Models Define the Problem Conflicting viewpoints Departmental impacts Assumptions Develop a Model Fitting the Model Understanding the Model Acquire Input Data Accounting Data Validity of Data Develop a Solution Complex Mathematics Only One Answer is Limiting Solutions become quickly outdated

33. To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 1-33 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 Possible Problems - Continued Test the Solution Identifying appropriate test procedures Analyze the Results Holding all other conditions constant Identifying cause and effect Implement the Solution Selling the solution to others