1. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED So, you want to use COCOMO II in-process...? Vicki Love

2. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 Agenda Terminology Software Development Effort Models Earned Value Management System In-process Usage of Effort Models Alternatives for Bidding Summary Backup Charts

3. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3 Terminology Software Development Effort Model Used to estimate effort to develop a software system i.e. COCOMO II, SEER, Price S Earned Value Management System (EVMS) Facilitates management of a project’s technical, schedule, and budget scope Focuses on deviations from the project plans

4. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4 Software Development Effort Models A Parametric Cost Model “… series of cost estimating relationships (CERs), ground rules, assumptions, relationships, constants, and variables that describe and define the situation or condition being studied”… from Parametric Cost Estimating Handbook Local calibration of models encouraged using data from completed projects Project characteristics End project size Total project effort

5. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5 Software Development Effort Models In general, parametric models assume a non-linear relationship between size of project and the effort required to complete the project; the bigger a project is, the less productive it is. This is called “diseconomy of scale”. These examples use COCOMO II model with Inductry calibration Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

6. 6 Software Development Effort Models When schedule compression becomes a factor, the deviation becomes even more significant. These examples use COCOMO II model with Industry calibration. Schedule constrained to nominal schedule for 400 KESLOC project (all projects bigger than 400KESLOC are compressed)

7. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7 Software Development Effort Model Project Development Effort ** Implication is that each bid is modeled as if it is an end of program size, schedule, etc.

8. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED8 Earned Value Management System Project Development Effort Project Schedule Activities/Budget Links to other activities Weekly Status Input Collection of Actuals Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

9. 9 In-process Usage of Effort Models Project Schedule Weekly Status Input Collection of Actuals Project Development Effort Many benefits to In-process Use Facilitates generation of latest best estimates of project size/effort Facilitates data feedback into organization repository Improves accuracy of bids But – in-process use of Effort Models along with EVMS is tricky...

10. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED10 In-process Usage of Effort Models Activities and associated budget reflect productivity for project start size/schedule NEW Project Development Effort Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

11. 11 Alternatives for Bidding ** Use start program sizes instead of end sizes Fold in “productivity impacts” as scope changes Generate estimated project productivity w/scope increase (via REVL parm or additional ESLOC); rerun model without scope increase using estimated productivity

12. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 Is It Worth It? Actual results On 3 year+ project with ~600K ESLOC Actual development effort within 7% of model projected Total software effort projected to be within 5% Customer satisfaction VERY high Director of agency – “ is the model project for. It’s on schedule, within budget, has a great team supporting it – it’s the way we’d like all our programs to work!” Customer office program manager – “The highest scored program reviewed...in the entire intelligence community as an Information Technology investment” Customer office program manager – “The program that carried to an iCMM (software maturity) level 3 award.”

13. Copyright 2004, Raytheon Company, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED13 Additional Information Paper – “Project Scope Increases and Use of COCOMO II with Earned Value Management System” More detailed information of issues encountered with EVMS and lessons learned along the way Comparison of all three alternatives Vicki Love – Raytheon Systems Company Vicki_A_Love@raytheon.com 972-205-4297