1. GEOS Meteorological and Chemical Data Assimilation Steven Pawson Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA GSFC

2. Overview of Presentation Meteorological Analyses:  GEOS-4 Status  A few things about GEOS-5 Simulation and assimilation of constituents:  Real-time support for NASA’s field campaigns: Intex-NA  Ozone assimilation: EOS-Aura mission  Carbon species assimilation: CO and others The way ahead

3. Meteorological Analyses  GEOS-4.0.3 is operational and documented: Three production streams are running, with minor (and evolving) differences in the system Delivery of products to science teams and DAACs (for subscription delivery) has been timely Monitoring provides continual evaluation of system NASA’s EOS-Aura science teams are receiving data Support of atmospheric chemistry modeling is a priority Customized forecast products have been delivered to various science teams for mission support GMAO has implemented constituent modules on line in the model, for forecasting for Intex-NA and Pavé  A few things about GEOS-5

4. GEOS-4.0.3 Overview Three meteorological analyses running: First-look Field Missions Real-time delivery: All available observations “Few-day old” SSTs Subject to change (fixes) Late-look Research Approx. 2-week latency: Late-reporting observations “Best estimate” SSTs Subject to change Ceres reprocessing (Reanalysis) Long runs Controlled input data streams No system changes 25-year reanalysis

5. Monitoring: January 2005 Data Issues Nov 2004-Jan 2005 series from first-look: Time: November 1, 2004 – January 31, 2005 O-Fs increase: NOAA-16 HIRS problem Same period in ceres run: Time: November 1, 2004 – January 31, 2005 O-Fs noisier but better constrained with NOAA-14 NOAA-14 turned on Time series of 500-hPa “O-F” and “O-A” of geopotential height for TOVS/ATOVS data, from Austin Conaty (GMAO)

6. GEOS-5 Status GEOS-5 is under development and testing: GCM is performing well in free-running mode GCM retains the Lin-Rood dynamics, but a substantially updated physics package Analyses, coupling the GCM with a version of NCEP’s new GSI (3D-Var) assimilation modules, are running: undergoing tests and evaluation We aim to implement constituent modules, including GSFC stratospheric chemistry and GEOS- Chem tropospheric chemistry, eventually GMI chemistry modules, for different applications

7. Simulation and Assimilation of Constituents GMAO has demonstrated capabilities in on-line forecasting and assimilation for constituents. Examples: 1.Real-time support for NASA’s field campaigns: Intex-NA 2.Assimilation of MOPITT CO data 3.Tropospheric Ozone from EOS-Aura Assimilation

8. Real-Time Forecasting: Intex-NA Field Mission CO: NA Biomass Burning CO: NA Fossil Fuels Asian CO Sources On-line implementation of P&L Harvard Chemistry for a suite of tracers, including tagged CO emissions. Runs performed in real-time for the mission, with daily updates of CO emissions. (Harvard-GMAO-Seattle.) Total CO: 2-day forecast for 7/22/04 The example shows CO pollution forecasts from the Intex-NA (Intercontinental Transport Experiment) mission in Summer 2004. The 2-day forecasts (along a proposed DC-8 flight track) reveal CO pollution throughout the troposphere (above), with contributions (left) from local Fossil-Fuel emissions (bottom), forest fires in the western USA (middle) and Asia (top). Solène Turquety (Harvard U.)/Lyatt Jaeglé (U. Wash)

9. Assimilation of MOPITT CO Data Preliminary results of assimilating MOPITT CO in the summer of 2004 (Intex-NA period). Objective is to examine assimilation for periods of interest (Trace-P, Intex-NA, …, NACP) and to work on inversions to improve source-sink estimates of carbon species Background Analysis Increment Analysis Weighting functions Assimilation proceeds by removing the a-priori from MOPITT data and the forecast, then deriving increments to weighted CO columns which are applied to the forecast to produce the analyses. The example is preliminary, with no cycling in the assimilation, but demonstrates the potential of the methodology. GCM configuration is the same as for the Intex-NA forecasts and the assimilation is adapted from the GMAO’s ozone PSAS. 700-hPa analysis increment Andrew Tangborn/Eric Nielsen (GMAO)

10. Tropospheric Ozone from EOS-Aura Assimilation Building on experience assimilating stratospheric ozone, GMAO is working towards a combined assimilation of OMI, MLS and TES ozone from EOS-Aura. Results are available for OMI+MLS (and SBUV+MLS) in January 2005, compared here to a 1998-2000 mean at five SHADOZ stations. Model includes P&L in troposphere. The assimilations reproduce the correct profile shape at the SHADOZ stations – using OMI gives better results at Natal and Ascension, in the Atlantic sector. The correct wavenumber- 1 in tropospheric ozone is captured, using MLS data to constrain the profile down to the tropopause. Future work will be to include TES ozone, in order to give more realistic local constraints on tropospheric ozone for air pollution studies. 345°E36°E112°E189°E270°E324°E Pressure [hPa] January mean: SHADOZ sondes (1998-2000) MLS+OMI MLS+SBUV Atlantic Pacific Ivanka Stajner/Kris Wargan/Hiroo Hayashi (GMAO)

11. The Way Ahead  GMAO will continue to enhance its relationship with the GEOS-Chem team  Dialogue enhances benefit to all parties (e.g., new diagnostics for monitoring and evaluation)  On-line capabilities essential (higher resolution; understanding of convective transport, etc.)  Field missions should continue to be a major focus: GMAO could/should assume more responsibility for “operational” forecasting using customized systems adapted to the mission Missions offer unprecedented opportunities for evaluation of transport (GMAO) and chemistry  Climate interactions with chemistry and pollution