1. EMBA 財務管理 李志宏 政大財務管理系教授兼 EMBA 執行 長

2. 2. 代理問題 (agency problem) 股東 VS. 經理人 股東 VS. 債權人 3. 金融市場 (Financial Markets) a. Money Market ＜－－－＞ Capital Market 。 b. Primary Market ＜－－－＞ Secondary Market 。 4. 利率決定因素 K = K * + IP + DP + LP + MP K ：名目利率 (nominal interest rate) K * ：真實利率 (real interest rate) IP ：通貨膨脹溢酬 (inflation premium) DP ：違約風險溢酬 (default premium) LP ：變現力溢酬 (liquidity premium) MP ：到期風險溢酬 (maturity risk premium)

3. 5. 利率期間結構 描述殖利率 (yield – to - maturity) 與到期期間 (time – to - maturity) 的關係。 ( 見圖 ) 美國國庫券的利率期間結構 解釋期間結構之理論 a. 預期理論 (Expectation Theory) b. 變現力偏好理論 (Liquidity Preference Theory) c. 市場區隔理論 (Market Segmentation Theory)

4. Balance Sheets Assets 2006 2007 Cash$ 52,000$ 57,600 Receivables402,000351,200 Inventories836,000715,200 Total current assets$ 1,290,000$ 1,124,000 Gross fixed assets$ 527,000$ 491,000 Less : Accumulated Depreciation166,200146,200 Net fixed assets$ 360,800$ 344,800 Total assets$ 1,650,800$ 1,468,800 Liabilities and Equity Accounts payable$ 175,200$ 145,600 Notes payable225,000200,000 Accruals140,000136,600 Total current liabilities$ 540,200$ 481,600 Long-term debt$ 424,612$ 323,432 Common stock$ 460,000 Retained earnings225,988203,768 Total equity$ 685,988663,768 Total Liabilities and Equity$ 1,650,800$ 1,468,800

5. Income Statements 2006 2007 Sales $ 3,850,000$ 3,432,000 Cost of goods sold 3,250,0002,864,000 Other expenses 430,300340,000 Depreciation 20,00018,900 Total operating costs $ 3,700,000$ 3,222,900 Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) $ 149,700$ 209,100 Less interest expense 76,00062,500 Earnings before taxes (EBT) 73,700$ 146,600 Income taxes (40%) 29,48058,640 Net income $ 44,220$ 87,960 Other Data EPS $0.442$0.880 December 31 stock price $6.00$8.50 Shares outstanding (December 31 ) 100,000 Dividends per share $0.22 Lease payments $40,000

6. Statement of Cash Flows (2007) Operating Activities: Net income $ 44,220 Additions (sources of cash): Depreciation 20,000 Increase in accounts payable 29,600 Increase in accruals 4,000 Subtractions (Uses of cash): Increase in receivables (50,800) Increase in inventories (120,800) Net cash flow from operations ($ 73,780) Long-Term Investing Activities: Investment in fixed assets ($ 36,000) Financing Activities: Increase in notes payable $ 25,000 Increase in long-term debt 101,180 Payment of cash dividends (22,000) Net cash flow from financing $104,180 Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash ($ 5,600) Cash at Beginning of year 57,600 Cash at End of Year $ 52,000

7. Financial Ratio Analysis Short-Term Solvency  Ability to pay bills in the short-run Long-Term Solvency  Ability to meet long-term obligations Assets Management  Intensity and efficiency of assets use Profitability Market Value  Going beyond financial statements

8. 20062007Industry Current ratio2.3X2.4X2.7X Quick ratio0.8X 1.0X

9. Ratio Analysis: Asset Management Ratios 20062007 Industry Inventory turnover4.8X4.6X7.0X DSO36.8 days37.6 days32.0 days Fixed assets turnover10.0X10.7X Fixed assets turnover2.3X 2.6X

10. Ratio Analysis: Debt Management Ratios 20062007 Industry Debt ratio54.8%58.4%50.0% TIE3.3X2.0X2.5X FCC2.4X1.6X2.1X

11. Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios 20062007Industry PM2.6%1.1%3.5% BEP 14.2 9.1 19.1 ROA 6.0 2.7 9.1 ROE 13.3 6.4 18.2

12. Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios 20062007Industry P/E9.7X13.6X14.2X M/B 1.3X0.9X1.4X

13. Common Financial Ratios

14. Common Financial Ratios (continued)

17. 報酬與風險 Return and Risk The Concept of Portfolio Management

18. Now assume : Case 1 : ρ =1 R P 140 B 80 A 0 30 50 V P

19. Case 2 : ρ = -1.0 R P 14.0 B 10.0 8.0 A 0 V P

20. Case 3 : ρ = 0 R P 140 B 10 9.2 8 A 0 2.68 3 6 V P

21. The Efficient frontier of Investment The Efficient Set of Investments Expected Portfolio Return Risk, σ P Total Risk = Market Risk + Firm – Specific Risk

22. The Effect of Portfolio Size on Portfolio Risk Capital Assets Price Model E[ R i ]=r f +β[E[R m ]-r f ]