2. Mary Kicza Deputy Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change National Conference Center Lansdowne, VA May 16, 2006 Mary Kicza Deputy Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change National Conference Center Lansdowne, VA May 16, 2006 Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val

3. NOAA and Its Satellite Program

4. NOAA’s Mission To describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment. To conserve and manage the Nation’s coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities.

5. NOAA’s Programs and Goals

6. NOAA Data and Information are Essential for… Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings Agriculture Transportation Defense Climate Commerce Industry Ocean Environmental Monitoring Environmental Monitoring

7. Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air, And Space Land- Based Air-Based Ocean- Based Space-Based

8. Makes Nautical Charts

9. Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for Debris Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for Debris Hurricane Katrina

10. Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and Stellar Seal Lion

11. Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts NOAA-15 color enhanced image

12. Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least $450 Million Improved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An Estimated $265 - $300 Million Annually El Niño Forecasts

13. Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1 Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per Year Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per Year Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical Power

14. NOAA Satellites View smoke plumes From World Trade Center September 11, 2001 NOAA Satellites View smoke plumes From World Trade Center September 11, 2001 NOAA polar satellite image At 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume NOAA polar satellite image At 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume GOES captured the plume Within minutes of the incident GOES captured the plume Within minutes of the incident

15. NOAA’s Operational Environmental Satellites NOAA provides an OPERATIONAL remote sensing capability for acquiring and disseminating GLOBAL and regional imagery and measurements of the environment, including METEOROLOGICAL, CLIMATIC, OCEANOGRAPHIC, SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL, and HAZARDS data, in support of the NOAA mission and the benefit of the Nation.

16. Acquisition Launch Command & Control Command & Control Real-Time Product Development Real-Time Product Development Archive & Access Assessments Requirements & Planning User Services An End-to-End Responsibility

17. The U. S. has made and continues to make investments in civil operational satellites observing systems. Such systems allow us to describe understand forecast assess the earth and its environment National Investment

18. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and GOES-R Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Processing/distribution of non-NOAA satellite data –DMSP, International geostationary satellites, QuikSCAT, TOPEX, ERS-2, EOS Terra and Aqua, SeaWIFS Environmental Data Management –National Climatic Data Center –National Oceanographic Data Center –National Geophysical Data Center Applications Research and Development Joint NOAA/NASA/DoD Satellite Data Assimilation Center NOAA Programs that Support Monitoring the Earth-Climate System

19. Atmospheric Products: Examples WindsTotal Water VaporTemperature 500 mb Rain Rate Ozone Aerosol Optical Thickness

20. Ocean Products: Examples SST AnomaliesHot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching QuikSCAT Winds Sea WIFS Ocean Color TOPEX Sea Level

21. Land Surface Products: Examples Vegetation Health Snow Solar Radiation Quebec Fires/Smoke Global Lights/Fires

22. Satellite Continuity CY 9900111213141516171803080910010207040506 DMSP POES Aqua C2 or C1 DMSP POES NPP Terra METOP WindSat 19 GIFTS/IOMI ? 20 21 Future Systems GOES Polar 0530 0730 1030 1330 Geostationary Local Equatorial Crossing Time NPOESS Meteosat Meteosat 2nd Generation GOES – R Series

23. GEOSS: A System of Systems

24. Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing System Sustained Integrated Comprehensive India INSAT U.S. GOES Global

25. President’s Statement Our cooperation will enable us to develop the capability to predict droughts, prepare for weather emergencies, plan and protect crops, manage coastal areas and fisheries, and monitor air quality

26. Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Membership open to all countries –60 countries (including the EC) are now represented International organizations are participants –43 organizations are now represented Organized into 5 subgroups Established GEO Secretariat Established Implementation Plan Task Team Membership open to all countries –60 countries (including the EC) are now represented International organizations are participants –43 organizations are now represented Organized into 5 subgroups Established GEO Secretariat Established Implementation Plan Task Team

27. GEO Moves Forward Working Towards Implementation of the Global Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005 New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget Formally created GEO Committees GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005 New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget Formally created GEO Committees GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region

28. Global Earth Observation System of Systems Integrated Observations & Data Management Intercalibration of foreign and domestic satellites is fundamental to GEOSS

29. Societal Benefit Areas 1.Improve Weather Forecasting 2.Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters 3.Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources 4.Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change 5.Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation 6.Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being 7.Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts 8.Protect and Monitor Water Resources 9.Monitor and Manage Energy Resources 1.Improve Weather Forecasting 2.Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters 3.Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources 4.Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change 5.Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation 6.Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being 7.Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts 8.Protect and Monitor Water Resources 9.Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

30. Importance of Cal/Val and Next Steps

31. Satellite Observations Have Contributed to More Accurate Weather Forecasts Southern Hemisphere forecasts are now as accurate as NH forecasts Today’s 5-day forecasts as accurate as 3-day forecasts 25 years ago BUT …..forecast centers remove satellite biases approximately and empirically Improved calibration and intercalibration can be expected to lead to further gains in forecast accuracy ECMWF

32. Satellite Observations Have Contributed to Improved Monitoring of Global Climate Change One Example: May 3, 2006 Federal Study Finds Accord on Warming By ANDREW C. REVKIN A scientific study commissioned by the Bush administration concluded yesterday that the lower atmosphere was indeed growing warmer …… Above conclusion based on careful analyses of NOAA’s MSU observations (one analysis is shown on right) But enormous challenges remain in monitoring global climate change MSU Tropospheric Temp Anomaly (C) (U. Alabama)

33. Challenges in Monitoring Global Climate Change from Space Need to construct time series by stitching together observations of many satellites Extremely small signals –Atmospheric temperature trends as small as 0.1 C/decade –Ozone changes as little as 1%/decade –Variations in the sun’s output as tiny as -0.02%/decade Different analyses of observations vary from: -0.023 to +0.25 W/m 2 Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial (Wilson, 03) Total Solar Irradiance (After Frohlich)

34. Is the Earth Greening? NOAA’s AVHRRs have been used to construct a time series of Vegetation Index that indicates a greening Earth – but we don’t know if this is really happening because of uncertainties in calibration and intercalibration of the different satellites Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial Pinatubo eruption Equator Crossing Time (After Heidinger)

35. Next Steps: NOAA/NIST Initiative in Satellite Calibration and Intercalibration A Government program is needed to assure instruments meet specification and pre- launch tests are traceable to SI standards, and the on-orbit satellite instrument observations are well calibrated and validated by means of careful analysis of instrument performance, satellite intercalibration and validation with reference sites On-orbit validation is needed for foreign satellite instruments to meet GEOSS objectives Inadequate calibration can result in economic benefit losses in the billion dollar range. –Degraded climate trends and projections –Degraded weather forecasts –Degraded ocean and coastal ecosystems assessments –Degraded hazard support information (fires, flash floods, droughts) Benefits of improved calibration/intercalibration –Independent confirmation to ensure instruments meet specifications. –Independent recommendations for corrective actions –Better calibrated satellite observations for ecosystems, climate and weather applications Resulting in improved information for society Fundamental prerequisite for an Integrated Global Earth Observing Systems of Systems (GEOSS) –Need to properly characterize and minimize observational errors before information can be used in Earth System Models.

36. Next Steps: Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) GSICS: A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) program Overarching Goal: Ensure the comparability of satellite measurements provided at different times, by different instruments under the responsibility of different satellite operators Participants: WMO, satellite agencies, national standards institutes, national data centers, major NWP centers, and national research laboratories NOAA is taking a leading role

37. Next Steps: ASIC 3 National Roadmap By developing a National Roadmap for improving satellite instrument calibration and intercalibration, this workshop will advance the nation’s ability to monitor, understand and predict our natural environment Best wishes for a successful Workshop