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Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans léconomie des filières énergétiques.

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Presentation on theme: "Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans léconomie des filières énergétiques."— Presentation transcript:

1 Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans léconomie des filières énergétiques auprès du Délégué Interministériel au Développement Durable Charbon et développement durable Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006 Laboratoire dEconomie de la Production et de lIntégration Internationale département Energie et Politiques de lEnvironnement FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF

2 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 2 May the 18 th presentation Energy Demand Climate change issues It is not sustainable Efficient coal and CCS CCS going forward

3 Energy Demand

4 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 4 IEA forecasts a more than 50 % increase at the 2030 horizon Oil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy demand Coal Oil Gas Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1970198019902000201020202030 Mtoe 1971 44% 16% 25% 12% 35% 25% 22% 11% 5% Source: IEA World Primary Energy Demand (IEA Reference Scenario)

5 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 5 Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD (source: IEA) 3% 12% 85% 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 1971-20022002-2030 Mtoe OECDTransition economiesDeveloping countries 31% 10% 59% share of total increase (%)

6 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 6 Meet basics needs 32 million 1,041 million 522 million 39 million 1.634 billion people without electricity in developing countries

7 Needs in 1990 … Population mondiale, en milliards dhabitants Consommation par habitant en tep Amérique du Nord Amérique latine Europe de lOuest Chine … Asie du Sud Afrique Moyen-Orient Russie-PECO Australie Japon Source : « World Energy Assessment », UNDP, UNDESA, CME, 2001 9 Gtoe Energy demand

8 Population mondiale, en milliards dhabitants Consommation par habitant en tep … to 2050 Amérique du Nord Amérique latine Europe de lOuest Chine … Asie du Sud Afrique Moyen-Orient Russie-PECO Australie Japon …to 20 Gtoe Energy demand

9 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 9 Energy use with GDP growth

10 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 10 Primary sources of world electricity generation in 2002 : 16,000 TWh In IEA 2030 reference scenario : 32,000 TWh –i. e.: + 100 % A DOUBLING OF COAL

11 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 11 Annual Average U.S. Energy Prices for the Electric Power Sector Dollars per million Btu Nominal Dollars Source: Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2006

12 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 12 Power production in USA Source: DOE/EIA 2006

13 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 13 The Impact on Investment 2004-2030 The power sector will need $10 trillion, over 60% of total energy-related investment T&D Power Generation Electricity 61% Coal 2% Oil 19% Gas 18% 54% 46% Total investment: 17 trillion dollars WEO Source: IEA

14 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 14 4700 new GW to be installed before 2030 Inde Chine USA +Canada UE à 15 Yo be built by 2030 (AIE) Capacity as of 1999 (GW) 55 %

15 Climate change issues

16 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 16 1910192019301940195019601970198019902000 x 10 7 Annex I Year N2O CH4 Forestry CO2 Fossil CO2 191019201930194019501960197019801990 x 10 7 Non-Annex I Year N2O CH4 Forestry CO2 Fossil CO2 1900 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Emissions in Tg CO2eq. 1900 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Emissions in Tg CO2eq. 2000 2010202020302040 IPCC SRES A1B scenario Energy / GHG Energy 25 % Energy

17 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 17 CO2 emissions world wide 26 Gt of CO 2 in 200538 Gt of CO 2 in 2030 (IEA reference scenario) Electricity accounts for 40% of CO2 emissions related to energy CO 2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most Coal = 11,5 GtCO 2 in 2030 ; + 4 GtCO 2 Coal is and should remain 2/3 of CO 2 emissions for Power Gen

18 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 18 CO 2 Emissions Growth 2004-2030 OECD CO 2 emissions growth are about three quarters of Chinese CO 2 rise, but on a per capita basis, OECD emissions will be still two times higher in 2030 0 1 2 3 4 China OECD Gt North America Pacific Europe 0 3 6 9 12 15 tonnes per capita 2004 2030 2004 2030 WEO

19 It is not sustainable

20 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 20 This is Not Sustainable! Source : Claude Mandil, directeur exécutif de lAIE World Bank Energy Week, Washington, 7 mars 2006

21 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 21 Substantial global fossil resources Gas Coal 2,000 bnboe 4,800 bnboe conventional yet to find unconventionalKey: Source: BP estimates Oil 2,000 bnbls R/P = 41 yrs R/P = 67 yrs R/P > 200 yrs

22 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 22 Resources scarcity cannot solve by itself climate change issues Past emissions Potential

23 Efficient coal and CCS

24 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 24

25 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 25 31 - 36 % 40 - 45 % Mid-term: Investment in coal can deliver efficiency enhancements Feasible today Possible tomorrow 1950 - 19701970 - 19901990 - 2010> 2010 ~+30% 25 - 31 % 50, 150, 300 300, 600 up to 1000 Unit size in MW Source : Euracoal

26 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 26 Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology Source : vision paper DIDD

27 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 27 Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario Source : vision paper DIDD

28 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 28 Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology + capture and sequestration (90% rate of success) + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario Source : vision paper DIDD

29 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 29 Main conclusions of the global vision paper The full deployment of Ultra Low emission technologies is therefore required, if one want to keep coal running and limit GHG emissions. Those « ultra low emission » technologies require technologies such as CCS We need to accelerate the deployment of « ultra low emission » coal technologies But, to arrive to such a result, it is necessary to increase efforts in several fields. Existing technologies at the laboratory stage must be transferred to demonstration phase. An economic framework must be built in order to make profitable their deployments. The questions of acceptability & environmental impacts must be addressed (now).

30 CCS going forward

31 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 31 Several winning technologies to capture CO2 Availabilit y ? Now 2015- 2020 2010- 2015 Others Solvents Chemic al Looping Oxy- firing IGCC with capture 2010- 2015 Source : ALSTOM

32 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 32 Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system Source : STATOIL

33 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 33 STORAGE POTENTIAL FOR CO2 IN SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF THE WORLD Source: J. Bradshaw and T. Dance, 2004: Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO 2 for the worlds sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies, September 5-9, 2004, Vancouver, Canada.

34 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 34 Significant WW R&D programs Most technologies have been tested in labs R&D funding from institutions and companies Demonstration projects (20 to 50 MW) ongoing or under preparation –Vatenfall in Germany, Total in France, FutureGen project in the USA … International Cooperations –IPCC (2005) special report on CCS –Carbon Storage Leadership Forum (CSLF) –IEA GHG : IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (Implementing Agreements are open to Non-OECD countries)

35 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 35 Political level G8 Gleneagles plan of action China Summit (5th September 2005) : Joint Declaration on Climate Change & Energy Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

36 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 36 Significant European R&D programs substantial global fossil resources IncaCO 2 COACH ACCSEPT Cooperation Trust

37 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 37 Many french corporations involved

38 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 38 A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (1) Bassin Parisien Oil fields : green Gas fields : red Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1

39 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 39 Parentis Lacq A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (2) Bassin Aquitain Oil fields : green Gas fields : red Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1

40 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 40 France has a long and successful experience in underground storage Gaz Naturel Concessions en cours : En aquifère En cavités salines En gisements déplétés Demandes de concession En aquifère En cavités salines Autorisations de recherches En aquifère En cavités salines Hydrocarbures liquides : concessions En cavités minées ou mines En cavités salines Produits chimiques de base : concessions En cavités salines 10 Gm 3 (500 gas storage sites in the world = 164 Gm 3 ) Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1

41 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 41

42 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 42 ANR projects launched in 2005 TransCO2 Capture & Transport Storage CAP-CO2 amines, adsorbates CLC-MAT chemical looping Geocarbone INJECTIVITE CO2 injection Geocarbone INTEGRITE confinement Geocarbone MONITORING monitoring Geocarbone PICOREF Sites evaluation Geocarbone CARBONATATION Long term behaviour CO2-SUBLIM antisublimation 8,3 M Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1

43 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 43 Future Demonstration Projects in France PICOREF A CCS project supported by the French Network of Oil & Gas Technologies (RTPG): understanding the CO 2 fate during and after injection looking for an experimental site in the SE of Paris Basin (Deep saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields) Lacq Project announced by Total in Sept 2005 (50M) Courtesy of Gestco project Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1

44 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 44 CO2 Storage Operation by Gaz de France RECOPOL (EU) K12B (CRUST) SNOVHIT

45 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 45 CCS by Total

46 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 46 IFP and CO 2 Domestic actions The CO2 Club The PICOREF project European projects CO2 from capture to storage: IFP as leader of the European CASTOR project IFP on the front line of the European fight against CO2: FP5 (RECOPOL, ICBM, SACS, NGCAS, CO2NET) and FP6 (CASTOR, ENCAP) projects Europe in the international CO2 capture and storage development concert: the INCA-CO2 project International programs CSLF GHG (IEA) Research projects conducted in partnership with industrialists: JIPs (Joint Industry Projects) JIP WIN CO2 JIP CO2 SECURE

47 Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.organtoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org 47 BRGM involvement in CO 2 projects BRGM stands for Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières JOULE II project (1993-1995) "The underground disposal of carbon dioxide": SACS (Phase 1) (1998-1999) and SACS2 (Phase 2) (2000-2002) GESTCO (2000-2003) NASCENT (2001-2003) WEYBURN (2001-2004) CO2STORE (2003-2006) CO2NET (2001-2002) and CO2NET2 (2003-2005) SAMCARDS (2002-2003) PICOR (RTPG Subproject A) (2002- 2004) RTPG Subproject B (2004) RTPG Subproject C (2004) PICOREF (2005-2006) CASTOR (2004-2008) CO2GEONET (2004-2009) InCA-CO2 "International Co-ordination Action on CO2 Capture and Storage" (2004-2007) ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking project) (2004-2009) ICSFFEM (CO2 emission reduction in phosphate production) (2002-2003) SEQMIN (CO2 sequestration by mineral carbonation) (2004) ProCO2 (Processes for management of industrial CO2 emissions) (2005°

48 Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans léconomie des filières énergétiques auprès du Délégué Interministériel au Développement Durable Charbon et développement durable Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006 Laboratoire dEconomie de la Production et de lIntégration Internationale département Energie et Politiques de lEnvironnement FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF


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