1. Characterization of Ground Motion Hazard PEER Summative Meeting - June 13, 2007 Yousef Bozorgnia PEER Associate Director

2. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Numerous Research Projects on Characterization of Ground Motion Hazard  Attenuation models and related projects

3. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Numerous Research Projects on Characterization of Ground Motion Hazard  Ground motion selection & modification for nonlinear analysis  Attenuation models and related projects

4. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Numerous Research Projects on Characterization of Ground Motion Hazard  Ground motion selection & modification for nonlinear analysis  Attenuation models and related projects  Investigation of various IMs Inelastic Spectra

5. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Numerous Research Projects on Characterization of Ground Motion Hazard  Ground motion selection & modification for nonlinear analysis  Attenuation models and related projects  Investigation of various IMs  Input motion for tall buildings with large embedded structures

6. Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Models

7. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Next Generation “Attenuation” (NGA) Is a Multidisciplinary “Program” Coordinated by PEER over the last four years Bringing together: geologists, seismologists, geotechnical engineers, structural engineers, and users of ground motion models And Researchers, practitioners USGS Private Industry Caltrans Private Industry USGS UC Berkeley UC Santa Barbara San Diego State U. U. Nevada Student

8. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Previous Data 173 worldwide earthquakes PEER Compiled One of the Largest Uniformly- Processed Strong-Motion Databases in the World New Data > 10,500 uniformly processed records

9. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting PEER Strong-Motion Database There are more than 100 variables describing source/path/site conditions of a record: 6 types of distance measures 4 site classification schemes Estimated V S30 for most of recording sites HW/FW classes The database is fully available to the public

10. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting NGA Model Developer Teams NGA empirical ground motion model developers Abrahamson & Silva (updating their 1997 model) Boore & Atkinson (updating Boore et al., 1997 model) Campbell & Bozorgnia (updating their 1997, 2003 models) Chiou & Youngs (updating Sadigh et al., 1997 model) Idriss (updating his 1993 & 1996 models) All model developers started with a common database

11. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Ground motion parameters : Horizontal components PGA, PGV, PGD Pseudo spectral acceleration at 5% damping Period: 0 - 10 sec NGA Attenuation Models Magnitude range:  5.0 - 8.0+ Fault Mechanism:  Strike-Slip  Reverse  Normal Site Effects  V s30 Distance range:  0 – 200 km

12. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting NGA Models Were Constrained by Simulation  To fill the gaps in data  Simulations of 3-D basin and 1-D rock motions  To model amplification due to sediment-depth  To constrain attenuation models  Nonlinear soil response analysis  Amplification factors for different soil profiles subjected to a wide range of input motions Depth (m) to Vs=1.5 km/s Amplification (Natural Log) Period (sec)

13. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Example Result: C&B NGA Predicted Acceleration Spectra Strike Slip, M = 7.0, V S30 = 760 m/s

14. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Behavior at Long Periods C&B NGA Predicted Spectral Displacement Strike Slip, R RUP = 10 km, V S30 = 760 m/s

15. Examples of Comparison of NGA Models

16. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Campbell & Bozorgnia (C&B) NGA vs. C&B 2003 Strike-Slip Fault, NEHRP B-C

17. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting S a (T=1.0s) – Strike-Slip, M 7.5, NEHRP B-C

18. NGA & US National Seismic Hazard Maps

19. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Impact of NGA Models on Seismic Design USGS has extensively reviewed NGA, and is adopting the NGA models for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps Design spectra based on either deterministic or probabilistic approach will be affected by NGA models

20. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Using same set of fault sources as 2002 maps; Subduction zone and deep earthquakes are not included Rock site condition Period=0.2 sec Spectral Acceleration 2% P.E. in 50 years Ratio of New/Old : Using 3 NGA relations Versus: 2002 Hazard Maps Abrahamson and Silva (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Boore et al. (1997), Campbell and Bozorgnia (2003), Spudich et al. (1999) for extensional areas Preliminary Map

21. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Period=1.0 sec Spectral Acceleration 2% P.E. in 50 years Ratio of New/Old : Using 3 NGA relations Versus: 2002 Hazard Maps Abrahamson and Silva (1997), Sadigh et al. (1997), Boore et al. (1997), Campbell and Bozorgnia (2003), Spudich et al. (1999) for extensional areas Preliminary Map

22. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting  “Some of the decrease of 1 sec S a from the 2002 maps is caused by:  Difference in the Vs30 assigned for “rock” sites in the 2002 maps and the average V s30 for rock sites reported in NGA (shouldn’t be a factor in the Campbell-Bozorgnia and Boore-Atkinson NGA relations)”  “Most of the decrease is from having additional data from moderate and large earthquakes and improved functional forms to fit the data” Reasons… Courtesy: Art Frankel

23. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting NGA Reports & Papers Including computer files of the models Draft final reports are available at PEER web site PEER reports are being printed Journal papers will be published in special issue of EERI Spectra, March 2008

24. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting NGA Models Are More Robust Than Old Models Because… Quantity and quality of data Amount of time the developers spent on models Interactions among model developers Number of independent variables Availability of supporting ground motion simulations Public participation via workshops and conferences Formal peer review commissioned by USGS

25. NSF-PEER Summative Meeting Finally…It would have been much more difficult to accomplish NGA without a framework of a national earthquake engineering center Example: For NGA, PEER coordinated efforts, and has had research contracts with: USGS (different researchers) California Geological Survey SCEC (various contracts) Various universities Several firms and practitioners

26. Special Thanks To: