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Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model Studies of Arctic Ozone Depletion Wuhu Feng and Martyn Chipperfield School of the Earth and Environment, University.

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Presentation on theme: "Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model Studies of Arctic Ozone Depletion Wuhu Feng and Martyn Chipperfield School of the Earth and Environment, University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model Studies of Arctic Ozone Depletion Wuhu Feng and Martyn Chipperfield School of the Earth and Environment, University of Leeds Acknowledgments S. Davies, B. Sen, G. Toon, J.F. Blavier, C.R. Webster, C.M. Volk, A. Ulanovsky, F. Ravegnani, P. von der Gathen, H. Jost, E.C. Richard, H. Claude NERC, EU TOPOZ III, QUILT, QUOBI projects Model description Recent improvements to SLIMCAT 3D CTM Results Comparisons of new/old CTM for Arctic winter 2002/3 Improved decadal simulations of Arctic O 3 loss (Rex plot) Conclusions

2 Aim of the work 1: Quantify and understand the degree of chemical ozone loss Aim of the work 2: Improve the Chemical Transport Model (e.g. Rex plot) Measurements: colored squares Old SLIMCAT: black points Rex et al. (GRL,2004) ARCTIC OZONE LOSS

3 Off-line chemical transport model [e.g. Chipperfield, JGR, 1999] Extends to surface using hybrid  -  levels (SLIMCAT version). Variable horizontal/vertical resolution. Horizontal winds and temperatures from analyses (e.g. UKMO, ECMWF (ERA-40 or operational)). Vertical motion from diagnosed heating rates or divergence. Radiation scheme MIDRAD or CCM scheme Tropospheric physics: convection, PBL mixing etc. Chemistry: ‘Full’ stratospheric chemistry scheme (41 species, 160 reactions) with heterogeneous chemistry on liquid/solid aerosols/PSCs and an equilibrium denitrification scheme. NAT-based denitrification scheme included. www.env.leeds.ac.uk/slimcat SLIMCAT/TOMCAT 3D CTM

4 2002/03 Meteorology PSC extent decreases with height Very Low Temp. in Dec. 2002 (produces early O 3 loss)

5 NEW SLIMCAT VS OLD SLIMCAT comparison with MK4 balloon data  Old SLIMCAT model (with lower boundary at 350K) overestimates N 2 O above 20 km. New version of SLIMCAT (which extends to the surface) gives better N 2 O distribution.  Different radiation schemes result in different transport (CCM better). N2ON2O CH 4

6 2) NEW SLIMCAT VS OLD SLIMCAT comparison with M55 aircraft data New version of SLIMCAT with CCM radiation scheme gives more (better) descent than MIDRAD radiation scheme in the old version of SLIMCAT N2ON2O CH 4

7 3) NEW SLIMCAT VS OLD SLIMCAT Comparison with O3 sonde data Significant improvements in the new version of SLIMCAT (I.e. better representation of O 3 in the lower stratosphere – better transport and better chemical loss) 425K 460K 495K

8 OLD SLIMCAT Run NEW SLIMCAT Run 4) NEW SLIMCAT VS OLD SLIMCAT comparison with POAM data Singleton et al., ACP(submitted),2004  Significant improvements in the NEW SLIMCAT when compared with POAM satellite data (daily average in the vortex). 450K

9 Observations SLIMCAT - OLD 1990 2004 SLIMCAT – NEW 7.5 o x 7.5 o New Model: Multiannual Simulations of Polar O 3 Loss  New SLIMCAT reproduces the Rex plot much better 99 98 03 97 93 95 96 00 94 96

10 Jan 15 Mar 25 SLIMCAT Obs. Run OLD Profile of O 3 loss looks ok generally, even in warm winters. Model has larger changes near 550K. Model vortex-average does not get very low values of 2000. 1993 20001999 19981997 19961995 1994 C C C C C W W 400 550  40 New SLIMCAT: Vortex Averaged Profiles 1993-2000 for O 3 (left) and  O 3 (right)

11 A lot! Key points for polar O 3 are probably: Updated kinetics (JPL 2002) + faster JCl 2 O 2 (Burkholder et al extended to 450 nm). NAT-based denitrification scheme. Minimum aerosol (H 2 SO 4 ) loading. Better vertical transport (more Cly in lower stratosphere) and no lower boundary near tropopause. ECMWF analyses (ERA40 + operational). Source gas scenarios: + 100pptv short-lived organic Cl, + shift in long-lived organic loading to shorter lived species. What else has changed in model between old and new model?

12 Importance of model resolution Higher resolution model produces large chemical ozone depletion, which agrees better with observations 1999/2000 425K 460K 495K

13 2.8 o x 2.8 o 7.5 o x 7.5 o 1999/2000 Cly y (ppbv)NO y (ppbv) More denitrification at 2.8 o x 2.8 o ERA 40 Vortex maintains stronger gradients – more isolated Op Effect of Resolution: New Model

14 2.8 o x 2.8 o 7.5 o x 7.5 o 99/00 02/03 03/04 ClO x (ClO + 2Cl 2 O 2 ) (ppbv)Ny Alesund (79 o N, 12 o E) ERA40! Effect of Resolution: New Model

15 Conclusion Updated New SLIMCAT CTM now gives a good simulation of seasonal O 3 column loss (and better January loss rates – not shown here). Significant improvement in modelling of cold winters in mid 1990s – more modelled O 3 loss. Higher resolution (2.8 o ) does increase O 3 loss especially in late winter/spring through maintaining active Cl for longer. Importance of radiation scheme in the model: Different radiation schemes used in the model can result in different transport and polar ozone loss. More sophisticated CCM scheme gives a better simulation than other schemes. Chemical models/modules (based on tested/validated code) within CCMs can be expected to produce reasonable simulations of chemical polar O 3 loss (under conditions so far experienced) – more positive than results of Rex et al (2004)!

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