1. Lectures in Macroeconomics- Charles W. Upton Fiscal Policy-Part 1

2. The Argument The myth: –Increased Government Spending causes inflation. The reality: –It is a complicated story.

3. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Our Starting Point Y M PoPo roro

4. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 An Example Y M PoPo roro Suppose the government decides to increase spending by $X

5. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 An Example Y M PoPo roro Suppose the government decides to increase spending by $X A one period spending increase on a foolish project

6. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 An Example Y M PoPo roro Suppose the government decides to increase spending by $X A one period spending increase on a foolish project Financed by a surcharge on last year’s tax bill

7. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Why this Choice? Y M PoPo roro We know beneficial products (a new highway) can have a beneficial effect, raising A or K

8. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Why this Choice? Y M PoPo roro We know beneficial products (a new highway) can have a beneficial effect, raising A or K We also know that taxes on wages, consumption, etc can have disincentive effects.

9. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Why this Choice? Y M PoPo roro We know beneficial products (a new highway) can have a beneficial effect, raising A or K We also know that taxes on wages, consumption, etc can have disincentive effects. Here we are looking at spending per se

10. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 What Happens Y M PoPo roro Y is up by $X because of the government’s spending.

11. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 What Happens Y M PoPo roro Y is up by $X because of the government’s spending. Y is down by <$X because of reduced wealth and consumption

12. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 What Happens Y M PoPo roro Y is up by $X because of the government’s spending. Y is down by <$X because of reduced wealth and consumption In part the increased demand is met by people working harder

13. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 What Happens Y M PoPo roro Y is up by $X because of the government’s spending. Y is down by <$X because of reduced wealth and consumption In part the increased demand is met by people working harder The auctioneer notes that D Y -S Y = X-Y>0.

14. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro

15. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The M Curve Y M PoPo roro With wealth down,, Money Demand is down. Ergo, the M curve shifts up and to the left

16. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro

17. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro This is a familiar case, “Spending Foolishly”

18. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro

19. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro We know P is up, r is uncertain

20. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro We know P is up, r is uncertain As drawn, r is up; economists think this is the likely outcome

21. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro We know P is up, r is uncertain As drawn, r is up; economists think this is the likely outcome This is sometimes referred to as demand pull inflation (or cost push inflation)

22. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 The Shift in the Y Curve Y M PoPo roro We assumed that there was an increase in Government Spending, financed by taxation. Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

23. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Changing the Experiment Y M PoPo roro We assumed that there was an increase in Government Spending, financed by taxation. Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

24. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Changing the Experiment Y M PoPo roro We assumed that there was an increase in Government Spending, financed by taxation. Could different financing scenarios lead to different results? Suppose the government just borrowed $X

25. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Changing the Experiment Y M PoPo roro We assumed that there was an increase in Government Spending, financed by taxation. Could different financing scenarios lead to different results? Suppose the government just borrowed $X If people have a bequest motive, no change

26. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Borrowing, No Bequest Motive Y M PoPo roro

27. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 Borrowing, No Bequest Motive Y M PoPo roro Here there is a difference, albeit a small one

28. Fiscal Policy-Part 1 End ©2004 Charles W. Upton. All rights reserved