2. From Brave New Unwired World to the Ever Smarter World ————————————— Opportunities for Internet Innovators North American IPv6 Global Summit June 25, 2003 By Alex Lightman Cal–(IT) 2 Scholar CEO, Chairman, Cofounder of Charmed Technology Conference Chairman, Global IPv6 Summit

3. June, 2003: A Month of Milestones  Invention of Ethernet, Bob Metcalfe, Xerox PARC, Palo Alto, June, 1973  TCP/IP (IPv4), Stanford University, Palo Alto, June, 1973  100 th Birthday of George Orwell, June 25, 2003 (Big Brother)

4. Opening Thought  Our primary objectives in implementing IPv6 are to improve customer experiences while also improving civilization for all humanity

5. Improve experience: Getting 4 relationships/customer “Bank of America experienced churn.” “We were stuck at 13 million customers because 3 million would join but 3 million would leave each year.” “We found that if and when people had four or more different relationships with B of A (checking, savings, credit card, bill paying, auto loan, mortgage) then our retention went UP and our churn for these people went way down.”

6. Service Provider Revenues New Sources Old Sources Total Revenue Time $$$

7. Cambrian Explosion Complex Environmental Interaction Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.” Invertebrates Vertebrates Bacteria Insects Multicellularity Discovered

8. What is a Commercial Explosion?  Rapid growth of a new product / service  Deep penetration of market  Spawns new, supporting industry  Transforms the economy  Examples: automobiles, PCs

9. Drivers Of Commercial Explosions  Satisfies a compelling consumer need  Possibly one they didn’t know they had  Leads to deep penetration of the market  Requires convergence of:  Technologies  Government policy  Standards  Companies via partnerships and alliances  Ultimate winners represent best trade-off along a number of dimensions  Simple metrics not easy to define early on  Transportation: why did the gasoline powered automobile win?

10. Economics Powered by Convergence:  Convergence of devices and innovations: clock, axle, wheel, lever, odometer, steering, speedometer, better tires, brakes, navigation systems, CDs…) with a dozen or more improvements every year.  Convergence of networks (oil industry consolidation, self service stations, national highways, cheap maps, driver’s licensing, parts, used cars, repairs, warranties, AAA…) with improvements.  Many parallels to communications industry. Success is about the convergence of multiple device capabilities and of networks.

11. Wanted: IPv6 Prosumer Innovators “We need people who create supply and demand for new IPv6 services”. Ministry of Science and Technology, Madrid IPv6 Summit.  George Washington Carver (100 uses for peanut, entire dinner, SW)  Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct current, AC, and hundreds of way to use it)  Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC access to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The importance of CREATIVITY and VISION!

12. Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption 1 1. The basis for an explosion of evolutionary experiments, followed by robust survivors. 2.Massive increase in feedback loops (output changes input), assisting civilization. 3. Historical opportunity to increase subscriptions, and thus service exports. 4.Million fold increase in sensors (and data…) 5.Commercial explosion, keep public interest.

13. Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption 1 6. Give every person thousands of IPv6 addressed nanodocs, reduce cancer, aging. 7. Head start in 5 way race to be 1st in 4G and win a multitrillion dollar grand prize. 8. Augmented memory (hyper documentation of one’s life, uploading) and augmented reality (info overlays). 9. Endowing users with superpowers. 10. Computational collective intelligence.

14. Feedback Loops: The Ultimate Multiplier  Feedback loops allow for learning outputs to change behavior, prices, decisions…  IPv6 adoption fosters HUGE feedback loops.  Advanced civilizations are based on an ever expanding quality, quantity and diversity of feedback loops. IPv6 supports this growth.  Societies with the most sophisticated ecosystems of feedback loops win in war and peace. IPv6 adoption will determine social progress, justice, and prosperity.

15. Trade Deficit Feedback… Export Services!  Services: over 80% of US $11 T GDP.  Annual deficit of $500 B in goods (about one third oil, one third autos)  Annual surplus of $15 B in agriculture, $50 B in services  Biggest leverage: increase service exports from less than 1% to 5% of US services.  First Next Gen Cluster has opportunity to double GDP as service export and 4G hub.

16. Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery  Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D for Microsoft: “The most valuable thing we’ve learned is that in the future everything that costs over $25 except food will be connected to the Internet.”  IP + a pico radio could compliment, then embrace and extend, then replace, bar codes and RFID tags.  Gillette: just ordered 500,000 RFID tags. Razorblade sweeping.

17. Sensor subscriptions very valuable!  Eric Frost: 30 measures of oil extraction allows doubling, from 35% to 70%, of recoverable oil from a given reservoir.  Will Recker: World Wide Wagon Train of 737 million to 1 billion vehicles that exchange information on the road ahead.  John Orcutt: From Buoys to MEN (Marine Environmental Networking). Weather prediction, climate change, government.  Articles are on http://www.calit2.net. Search site for “Alex Lightman”http://www.calit2.net

18. The Mobile High Performance Internet The Next Boom, and the Next 4 Relationships 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 1999200020012002200320042005 Mobile Internet Fixed Internet Subscribers (millions) Source: Ericsson

19. Wireless Billing  Minute buckets  Pre-pay  By-the-packet  Micropayment  Wireless wallet  QoS (conversational, streaming, interactive, background)  Bundling  IDC: value of packet-based billing will rise from $94.6 million in 2001 to $855.7 million in 2005.

20. The Mobile Internet is a Huge Opportunity AspectFixedMobile  Users 2003FewerMore  Cost of deviceMoreLess  BillingsCumbersomeEasy  MicropaymentsVery difficultBuilt in  Willingness to pay Want for Free Assume it will cost

21. Rules of Thumb for Wireless Profits  “Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic” Arthur C. Clarke  MAGIC: Mobile Anytime Globally Integrated Customized (NTT DoCoMo)  PAIR: Personal Available Immediate Real time  0-1-2-3: 0 manuals, 1 button to Internet, 2 seconds max delay, 3 keystrokes maxi to any svc  SMS messages set the pain threshold for billing (10 to 15 cents/message) so use grows

22. Wireless Money: The 5 M’s  Movement: escaping the fixed place  Moment: expanding the concept of time  Me: extending myself and my community  Money: expending financial resources  Machines: empowering devices.

23. Deeper Services  Movement: Mobility, Locality, Globality, Home Base, Positioning  Moment: Plan, Postpone, Fill Time, Catch Up, Multitask, Real Time  Me: Customized, Relevant, Community, Permission, Presence, Multisession (most powerful, relates to ‘cool’ self image)  Money: M-commerce, Micropayments, M - banking, M-wallet, M-advertising, Sponsorship  Machines: Telematics, Metering, Remote Access, Appliances, Robotics, Automation, Connecting with Anything and Everything

24. Granularity: Ever Smarter Guide  Location aware pull information  Location aware pull information with location sensitive map  Location aware pull information with map and guidance  Preference based pull information with map and guidance  Preference based push information with map and guidance  Time sensitive push information with map and guidance  Preferences learning intelligent guide with map and guidance

25. Adventures in Transparent Infrastructure  Broadband Internet Connection via Wireless Wi-Fi  Over 600 Access Points on the Campus  Year- Long “Living Laboratory” Experiment 2001-02  500 Computer Science & Engineering Undergraduates  300 Entering UCSD Sixth College Students—Fall 2002  Experiments with Geo-Location and Interactive Maps Cal-(IT) 2 Team: Bill Griswold, Gabriele Wienhausen, UCSD; Rajesh Gupta, UCI UC San Diego UC Irvine

26. The New World of Mobile Geolocation Source: Bill Griswold, CSE, UCSD

27. Local Wi-Fi Can Be Linked With Wide Area Cellular Internet  First US Taste of 3G Cellular Internet  UCSD Jacobs School Antenna  Three Years Before Commercial  Linking to 802.11 Mobile “Bubble”  Tested on Campus CyberShuttle  You Can Ride it on Friday on the Tour!b Rooftop Qualcomm 1xEV Access Point www.calit2.net/news/2002/4-2-bbus.html Roberto Padovani, CTO Qualcomm

28. Movement: Other Services  Launch soon and learn from feedback  Translation (typed in text, translate text and say the words, human interpreters, translate my speech)  Business Services  Fleet control (get right vehicle in right place, time)  CRM and the corporate portal (present only vital data on customer, calendar, FAQs)  Order entry system (Purchasing history)  Telehealth (patient monitoring devices, remote care, access to doctors  Synchronizing devices (Virtual PDA)  Employee (monitoring, bundle h/o, Vir Home Env)

29. Moment: Making use of every second  Mobile Entertainment (esp. games)  Micro Movies and advertainment  Entertainment bundling (jokes, horoscopes, puzzles, games, cartoons, spoofs, trivia, voting)  Repackaging serial content (daily subscription, content archive, content fan club, ‘Hollycules’ to own or gift, viral marketing content)  Mobile information and infotainment (info push, news, premium news coverage, news partners)  Customized news, alerts (apartment finder)  Info pull (white and yellow pages, dictionaries, calendars, comparison shopper)

30. Me Mobile: Extending Self, Community  Rich calls (enhancing voice with images, sounds)  Draw me the map/shared whiteboard)  Shared video image, shared original music  Games and rich call (taunting opponents)  Personalizing calls (custom ring and picture, Corporate Face Catalog, Look who’s calling, Personal publicity photo, image of topic)  Show me (remote eye, repairman, real estate)  Video calls  CRM (money rewards, dynamic location lock)  Messaging for love (Dating, SMS, MMS)  Communities (spreading message, chat)

31. Mobile Money  M-Commerce (ticketing…look for lines)  Selling digital content (mass audience content that is already digital, know how in digital form)  Delivering digitally non digital content  Government fees, licenses, taxes  Tangible item purchase (vs. credit card, but on phone bill)  Mobile Advertising (mAd, NOT mAd spam, location based advertising at mass audience events, sports, ballet, church, movies)  Ads in music streaming, guaranteed listeners  Rewarding mAd/frequent viewer miles  Infovirus, call to action, “Smart mobs”, coupons, blue light.  M-banking, wiring money to mobile users phone

32. Machine Services: The Internet Iceberg  Automobile Telematics (Car service and maintenance, car navigation, road advertisement requests, car security)  Car multitasking, games for kids in car  Service integration (Home Entertainment tells car what businesses you clicked on, streaming to PDA of MP3 on home computer, three degrees)  Remote views (inspections, Homeland security)  Remote control (home control, home alarm, industrial metering, traffic monitoring)  Law enforcement (speed trap, call criminal)  Feedback (customer surveys, auto check in)

33. Exercise Was the First Wireless Monitoring Application

34. As Our Bodies Move On-Line Digital Medicine Will Emerge  New Sensors—Video Pill  Battery, Light, & Video Camera  Images Transmitted to Hip Device  Next Step—Putting You On-Line!  Wireless Internet Transmission  Key Metabolic and Physical Variables  Model -- Dozens of Processors and 60 Sensors / Actuators Inside of our Cars  Post-Genomic Personalized Medicine  Combine Across Populations  Genetic Code  Digital Imaging  Body Data Flow  Use Powerful AI Data Mining www.givenimaging.com www.philometron.com

35. BP Blood Glucose Heart Rate Temp Personal Medical Assistant - Multi-Network Gateway - Processor: -Sensor Data Analysis, -Monitoring, -Coding -Communicates With Monitoring Station Medical Monitoring Station -Event Analysis -Data Shaping -Control Data Sensors -Sensor Data -Control Data -Local-area networking Conceptual Framework for a Personal Medical Assistant Source: Sujit Dey. UCSD ECE

36. Current and Potential Markets for Remote Patient Monitoring  Wellness  Fitness Monitoring  Obesity Epidemic  Ambulatory Hospital Patients  Cardiac Out Patients  Elder Care  Global Population of People Over 65, Will Increase 88% by 2025  Clinical Trials  New Drug Discovery  Emergency Response  Natural Disasters  Homeland Security

37. What is a SensorNet?  Sensors  Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…  Sensor Platform  Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …  Telecommunications Infrastructure  Wired, Wireless, Internet, …  Sensor Arrays  Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …  Layered Software  Backend Data Systems

38. Environmental SensorNets--Water and Climate Instruments in the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve Source, Dan Cayan, UCSD SIO

39. HOTLINKs for Damage Locations using GPS and Digital Photos on GIS Integrate Remote Reconnaissance with Satellite Imagery and Ground SensorNets Maria Feng UCI Civil & Environmental Engineering

40. Putting Laboratories on a Chip Source: Greg McRae, MIT and ANL $ 10 Cermet Sensor $ 300,000

41. Can Schools Become a Source for Data Intensive Science? US EPA PAMS Sites PAMS (Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station) SLAMS (State & Local Air Monitoring Stations) 11 PAMS/SLAMS Monitors in 2001 (CO, NO2, O3, SO2, PB, PM10) California Air Resources Board Potential for Dramatic Increase in Coverage! Schools in Los Angeles Unified School District

42. Application Examples Homeland Security Emissions Monitoring M2M Communications Ad Hoc Mesh Wireless Distributed Sensor Network Source: Graviton

43.  Common Needs for Research or Emergency Response  Situational Awareness  Common Operational Picture  Local Data Warehouse with Remote Data Access  AI Data Mining of Distributed Databases  Spatial Data Analysis  Consequences Assessment Tool Set Image Source: Panoram Technologies Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Control Rooms Will Integrate SensorNets with Legacy Data

44. Prevailing wind Warm zone Compromised Transportation Corridor Hot Zone CAL-(IT) 2 WIISARD Scenario for Improving Emergency Medical Response Source: Dr. Leslie Lenert, UCSD SOM Transportation Assets With Mobile Internet Bubble Field Treatment Station Mobile Bubbles Patient RF IDs First Responder PDAs Electronic record of field care Hospital #1 Hospital #2 Stadium WMD Attack Transport station Incident command center 2-Way Telemedicine Control Room GPS Tracking High Bandwidth

45. IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World  Data collection to knowledge synthesis, data mining  Data  Information  Knowledge  IPv6 will help us collect & mine usable information from massive amounts of data.  Integrated technologies  Sensors, computation, data management  IPv6 will enable us to develop end-to-end applications which integrate ALL technologies.

46. IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World  Universal Access  Location-independence, ubiquitous access to computing, data, resources  IPv6 enables us to develop applications that can be initiated from anywhere at anytime  Global-scale collaboration  Collaboration tools, access, interoperability  IPv6 enables us to communicate, work, and recreate with people all over the world, even as we go nomadic and constantly mobile

47. Trends that will drive this decade  Shrinking computers  Cooper’s Law  Shifting from Hardware to software to services  Galaxy of Gadgets  AR and Milgram’s Continuum

48. The Incredible Shrinking Computer

50. The Borgs are Loose and Coming for You (New York Times, Oct., 1999)  BORGS ARE THE HARBINGERS OF 4G and use wearable computers all day, every day  TEXT BORGS: Thad Starner, REMEMBRANCE AGENT, a sort of onbody Google that searches and ranks each new input for relevance.  SOUND BORGS: Greg Priest Dorman, dyslexic sysadmin, uses CharmIT to do text to speech for all his messages, at 3 to 5 times normal rate.  VIDEO BORGS: Steve Mann has been wearing video cameras for over a decade of ‘souveillance’. Asks wife to pick fruit remotely & friends for location advice.

51. Market Adoption Adopters of Wearable Computers Time Innovatos 2001 2002 Late majority Early majority 1 2 Early adopters  Innovators  Research Labs, Universities  Technophiles  Govt / Military  Early Adopters  Field Technicians  Medical Specialists  Stock Brokers  Early Majority  Gen Y  Upper / Middle Income Entertainment  People with Disabilities  Late Majority  Mobile workforce

52. Applications of Wearable Computers  Mobile Entertainment Systems  Point of Sales Terminals  Portable Test Equipment  Industrial Automation  Automotive Repair & Diagnostics  Banking  Kiosks  Thin Client/Server Applications  Embedded Internet/intranet Appliances/Gateways/Firewalls  Wireless Network Repeaters or Base Stations  Scientific Surveys  Construction  Academic Instruction  Personnel training  Customer and user studies  Network analysis: mobile nfs diagnosis, intruder detection, packet sniffing

53. Value Proposition High MobilityLow Mobility Cell Phones PDAs Pagers Old Mainframes Low Functionality Wearable Computers Laptops High Functionality

54. New network operations systems must be designed for adaptability and change (new equipment, multiple vendors, new service offerings/ provisioning). 1970-1990Minicomputer/ DEC era 1:1 people/machine ratio 1980-Workstation/ PC era 1:10 people/machine ratio 1990- Enterprise networks/ Cisco era 1:100? people/machine ratio 2000- Broadband packet networks ? 1:1000? people/machine ratio 1960-1980 Time Mainframe/ IBM era Platform(s) 10:1 people/machine ratio Network Operations Model Source: Paul Johnson Old network management systems were single vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid five-year preplanned networks. The New Powers of Ten

55. 1000’s of subscriptions/person  Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you swallow, with data recorded onto a hiptop Personal Black Box.  Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high resolution medical records, each with IP address.  Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A Deepness in the Sky will link internal and external bodies.  The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.

56. Source: Pister,Berkeley

57. 16 mm 3 total circumscribed volume ~4.8 mm 3 total displaced volume Source: Pister, Berkeley

58. Over the Next Decade Nanobioinfoengineering Will Revolutionize SensorNets 5 nanometers Human Rhinovirus IBM Quantum Corral Iron Atoms on Copper VCSELaser 2 mm Nanogen MicroArray 500x Magnification 400x Magnification

59. How do you manage all those tiny doctors?  IPv6  features 3.4*10 38 unique addresses available Stateless autoconfiguration Security: authentication and encryption Mobility management

60. How can we secure these doctors? IPv6  IPSec  uses IPv6 extension headers  security modes  authentication on IP level  encryption on IP level  based on private and public key algorithms  manual or automatic key distribution  allows secure end-to-end communication and Virtual Private Networks

61. Mobility management in IPv6  Goals  transparency of mobility to higher layers  addressability using the home address Home subnet Correspondent node Home agent Foreign subnet Mobile node Internet

62. The mobile cyborg IPv6

63. Cooper’s Law Spectral efficiency doubles every 2.5 years

64. The Shifting Market Hardware  Software  Services Services Hardware S oftware

66. Endowing IPv6 Users with Superpowers  Omniscience: ability to know almost anything, instantly (John Doe)  Clairvoyance: ability to see what is happening anywhere on earth  Omnipresence: ability to project power or influence anywhere  Collective Intelligence: joining minds

67. The Killer App of Ubiquitous IP  Six billion people online…  using human-centric wearable devices…  that allow reception, context-aware processing, retransmission of signals…  including electromagnetic spectrum (television, radio, cellular, satellite, medical, etc.)…  and molecules (smells and chemicals)…  all provided for an affordable fee…  and constituting the largest industry.

68. The Wireless Broadband University  Any data, images, videos, animations, avatar mentors living or dead or imaginary or composite are available to anyone at anytime.  Augmented reality presentations replace Powerpoint presentations.  Pocket College: any course, any test, anytime, anywhere, anyone.  Upgrading the workforce every quarter.

69. Campuses Are Increasingly Covered With High Bandwidth “Wi-Fi” Wireless Internet Zones  UCSD Wireless Projects  ActiveClass  ActiveCampus  Explorientation  CyberShuttle  UCI Wireless Projects  GPS PDAs  Intelligent Transportation  Wearables http://activecampus2.ucsd.edu/acelaunch/coverage.php UCSD

70. Municipal Broadband Roll Out  Municipalities cover over 300 square miles with 802.11x (two circles with a 7 mile radius, pi x r squared, 49 sq. miles x 3.14) if they have backhaul. System now working at UCSD “Wi Fi Bubble”, including on the Cyberbus at gives bursts of 2 Mbps and, more typically, about 450 Kbps. Malls, campuses, bases can afford.  With 6WiFi and participation in CIBER, the CTIA administrated roaming billing system, this becomes roamable, and economically fungible.  Give citizens wireless broadband as a public good, like fountains that create a positive microclimate in dry, hot cities, only for business and communication.

71. The Great Augmentation Augmented memory allows hyper documentation of one’s life, recording everything and keeping the Life Bits on your 100 GB hard drive on your hip. In the future, after emergence of AI, you may want to upload yourself to the net. Augmented reality allows us to overlay semitransparent text, images, video, from context awareness. Head tracking enables hands free operation.

72. The Paradigm Shift

73. Milgram’s Continuum (1994) Reality Virtuality Augmented Reality (AR) Augmented Virtuality (AV) Mixed Reality (MR)

74. Transitions  Tangible AR interfaces support transitions along the Reality-Virtuality Continuum Reality Virtuality ARAV Mixed Reality (MR)

75. The Next Logical Step In Wireless Data

76. The Information Foundation  Just as foundation of building (brick vs. structural steel) determines how high it can go, the information foundation (structure of networks) determines how high civilization can reach.  Jim Bound: “IPv6 is infrastructure!”  Latif Ladid: IPv4 is straining to support just one application like the World Wide Web. IPv6 could support at least ten applications the size of the WWW.  Like putting round peg in round hole: how do we drop entire industries into the expanding IPv6, creating commercial explosions?

77. A Mania for Measures and New Names  The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society 1250 to 1600 by Alfred Crosby  Europeans were nothing special around 1000, were the science leaders in 1500, and then dominated the world. Why? Many excuses, but only one clear difference: mania for measurement and quantification.  Measuring India to the yard. “Mad dogs and Englishmen”.  Musical notation: thousand singing from the same sheet.  Perspective in painting: 50 innovators in Temperance, greater realism led to being on walls, led to goals setting, historical recognition, and objective mentality.  Clocks went from town squares > tables > wrists, and helped determine longitude.  Science led to technology led to victory and colonization.

78. The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World  The Pyramids of Giza  The Hanging Gardens of Babylon  The Colossus of Rhodes  The Lighthouse of Alexandria  The Mausoleum of Halicarnassus  The Temple of Artemis at Ephesus  The Temple of Zeus at Olympiad

79. The Seven Wonders of the IPv6 World  Terra Sapiens: create “us” as superorganism.  Earth, Incorporated: all of us shareholders  4GEO: Give every square meter its own unique IPv6 address, then link to GIS software, GPS, and allow posting messages.  The World Water Web: put RF sensors almost everywhere to signal Wet, Hot, etc. and get real time measure in liters.  The Great Replication: 3D copy of everything  The Great Augmentation: sharing POV  The Ultimate Market: anyone buy, sell, anything.

80. The Colossus of Rhodes The Statue of Liberty

81. ATLICATIONS the size of WWW  Atlas application, supports the world  Voice ($500 billion annually)  Radio (add personalization, location)  Television (Every show ever made)  Medical Monitoring  Simulations  High resolution Location Based Services, including security

82. Powers of IPv6  Power of Numbering  Power of Sequencing  Power of Ranking  Power of Naming  Power of Leading  Power of Granularity  Power of Bounding  Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)  Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions  Power of Containerized Cargo  Power of Tight Targeting  Power of Better Modeling and Simulation

83. Closing Thought  The future is here.  It’s just not evenly distributed.  William Gibson. Alex Lightman Alex@charmed.com

84. Books come with 24 hour tech support, lunch, and a friendship

85. Closing Thought Thank you for coming! See you in November at the next Summit. Thank you! Please stay in touch. Alex Lightman Alex@charmed.com Tel. 310 717 7745