1. 1 Science and global environmental politics The Case of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

2. POL S 384 Lec 8 2 Science, Uncertainty & Risk The authority of science Modern notion of progress “Knowledge is power” Perceived neutrality, objectivity (fact/value) Uncertainty: incomplete information Risk: probability of an undesirable event Policy Qs Which risks to mitigate? How to mitigate risk? Who decides? Risk assessment Cost-benefit analysis Probabilistic; money is the measure Problems Future vs. present; elitism; nonmonetary values; risk cultures

3. POL S 384 Lec 8 3 Risk Perception & (Ir)rationality Representativeness: drawing analogies Availability: over-rating highly publicized risks Anchoring: people stick to old information Overconfidence, denial of risk Subjective factors Autonomy: more risk-accepting when voluntary Fairness: who causes & who bears risks? Natural causes more acceptable than human-induced

4. POL S 384 Lec 8 4 Epistemic Communities Groups of technical experts united by consensual knowledge and common policy goals Transnational scope Influential through state agencies, IOs, NGOs, media Agenda-setting, fact finding, developing policy options, implementation Said to be influential in many treaties Rational experts > international cooperation

5. POL S 384 Lec 8 5 Why science does not generate rational policy Scientific consensus is rare “Facts” must be interpreted Scientists are rarely advocates Much policy is not based on science Risk of information overload Scientific agenda is moral, political decision What counts as knowledge? “Other” knowledges

6. POL S 384 Lec 8 6 Precautionary Principle Under threat to human health or environment, precautions should be taken even without full scientific proof of causality. “ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure” German “forecaring principle” (acid rain) Embryonic principle of international law Shifts burden of proof Promotes foresight, humility, recognition of interdependence

7. POL S 384 Lec 8 7 Ozone Depletion: Agenda Setting CFCs: the “miracle compound” Non-toxic, chemically inert, many uses Few makers (DuPont is #1) Stratospheric ozone O 3 absorbs UV-radiation, which causes skin cancer, cataracts, phytoplankton death… 1974 discovery: CFCs destroy ozone 1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban 1977-85: fact-finding, little action

8. POL S 384 Lec 8 8 Science in the Ozone Negotiations Vienna Convention (1985) Antarctic ozone hole (1986) Not predicted by models Cause unknown; CFCs suspected Negotiators advised to ignore it Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050 Montreal Protocol (1987) U.S. vs. E.U.; virtually no DC participation IC’s to cut CFCs in half by 2000 DC’s can increase CFC use for 10 years

9. POL S 384 Lec 8 9 How did the ozone hole have an effect? Not predicted by models, opened door to knew way of framing the knowledge “Chlorine-loading” scheme Emerged when chlorine concentrations reached 2 ppb Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction U.S. position: 95% cutback Montreal Protocol was not enough

10. POL S 384 Lec 8 10 Beyond Montreal Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s Binding on dissenters: sovereignty? 1988: New Science Arctic “hole” Antarctic hole linked to CFCs Global ozone losses 1990s: CFC substitutes & Multilateral Fund Necessity for DC participation India & China to consume 1/3 CFCs by 2008 Grand bargain: participation for development aid

11. POL S 384 Lec 8 11 Amending Montreal London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000 Plus carbon tetrachloride & methyl chloroform Multilateral ozone fund ($1 B since) Copenhagen, 1992: phaseout by 1996 Phase out HCFCs by 2030 Bangkok, 1993: phase out methyl bromide Montreal, 1997: ban MB by 2005 (IC’s) Beijing, 1999: HCFC freeze @ 1989 levels IC’s ban by 2004; DC’s by 2016 Compliance, black market

12. POL S 384 Lec 8 12 Coming Attractions 2010 ~ Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and carbon tetrachloride in developing countries. 2015 ~ Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and methyl bromide in developing countries. 2030 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed countries. 2040 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing countries

13. POL S 384 Lec 8 13 Montreal Protocol Effectiveness The shining example of green diplomacy Ozone hole 1986: 14 million km 2 2006: 28 million km 2 Chlorine loading near its peak At least a decade before it begins to heal Predicted to be normal mid-century Multilateral ozone fund $2.2 billion, 1991-2007 Considered very effective

14. POL S 384 Lec 8 14 Relationship & contrast to climate change Scientists increasingly outspoken Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of the global economy Availability of profitable substitutes Science-led protocol amendment process Norms of universal participation and “common but differentiated responsibility” U.S. demands “universal participation” on climate change