1. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Rapid Metabolic Change as a Chance and a Threat to Sustainability: The Case of Amazonia Marina Fischer-Kowalski (Vienna) Norbert Fenzl (Belem) José A. da Costa Machado (Manaus) Hercilio C. Bohorquez (Caracas) Prepared for Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 6-8, 2001

2. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Preface The following presentation is based upon a preliminary analysis of data on Brazil and Venezuela generated within the EU- financed project “Amazonia 21” (http://www.amazonia21.org/). We related these data to national material flow accounts for various other countries, from various sources (among them most prominently: World Resources Institute: Adriaanse et al. 1997, Matthews et al. 2000). Our analysis aims at illustrating whether MFA is an adequate tool for issues of sustainability. The reader should be aware, though, that despite many efforts (see for example Steurer/Eurostat 2001) data reliability and comparability across countries is far from excellent, and so our conclusions should be considered rather as grounded hypotheses than as final, well established results. For a more elaborate discussion see Fischer-Kowalski & Amann 2001.

3. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Overview 1.The Context: Amazonia 21 2.Metabolic Transition – what is that? 3.Metabolic transition in a globalized economy – Brazil and Venezuela 4.Is global trade driving environmental exploitation of the periphery? 5.Conclusions

4. Social Ecology, University of Vienna 1) The Context: Amazonia 21 Ongoing EU-financed research – teams from Panamazonian Countries (PACs) and Europe participating Response to Agenda 21-setting by PAC, searching for less destructive ways of economic development Is material flow analysis an adequate tool to define sustainable development, and develop strategies, for PAC?

5. Social Ecology, University of Vienna 2) Metabolic transition – what is that? Metabolic transition: major change in socio-ecological regime It implies a qualitative transformation of the mode of subsistence of a society, and therefore of the society – nature interrelation Core: change in energy metabolism

6. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Socio-ecological regimes in world history per capita annual use Energy Material Basic human metabolism 3,5 GJ 1 t (biomass intake by nutrition) Hunter-gatherers 10-20 GJ 2-3 t (uncontrolled solar energy use) agrarian societies 60-80 GJ 4-5 t (controlled solar energy use) industrial societies 250 GJ 20-22t (fossil energy use)

7. Social Ecology, University of Vienna In history: Symptoms of Metabolic transition from agrarian to industrial mode Rapid increase in fossil energy use Rapid population growth Rapid increase in income (GDP)

8. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Historical examples: fossil fuels use in Austria and UK

9. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Fossil fuels, Population, GDP in Brazil & Venezuela 1975-1995

10. Social Ecology, University of Vienna In history: Symptoms of metabolic transition from agrarian to industrial mode continued... Relief on agricultural and forestry land use Per capita levels energy & materials use = transition from agrarian to industrial level

11. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Biomass used in Brazil & Venezuela 1975-1995

12. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Per capita levels of materials use: history and present

13. Social Ecology, University of Vienna 3) Metabolic transition now: Symptoms of „extractive economies“ Intensification of agriculture and forestry, increasing pressure on land High per capita materials and energy use Very high materials intensity of the economy (tons per unit GDP)

14. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Per capita materials use 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI

15. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Per capita income, 1995 Sources: World Bank

16. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Material Intensity 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank

17. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Metabolic transitions in the globalized economy Declining material intensity in the industrial core countries Alarming: Rising materials intensity at the periphery („extractive economies“) Rich industrial countries externalize materially intensive processes, and environmental burdens

18. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Material Intensity declining in industrial, but rising in developing countries Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD GDP (real, constant) Material Input (DMI) Material Intensity (DMI/GDP)

19. Social Ecology, University of Vienna 4) Is global trade driving environmental exploitation in peripheral economies?

20. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Imports & Exports in tons as share of material input, 1975-1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD Exports [% share of DMI] Imports [% share of DMI]

21. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Physical trade balances: tons imported minus tons exported, 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank

22. Social Ecology, University of Vienna Material Intensity (tons/$) of International Trade, 1995 Sources: Amazonia21, IFF, WRI

23. Social Ecology, University of Vienna 5) Conclusions Amazonian countries have a specific metabolic profile: different from history, different from present-day industrial countries an unsustainable profile: high material input, low income, rising material intensity this profile is reinforced by international trade no „wait and see“: ongoing structural change is not working towards sustainability

24. Social Ecology, University of Vienna References Adriaanse, A., Bringezu, S., Hammond, A., Moriguchi, Y., Rodenberg, E., Rogich, D., and Schütz, H. (1997), Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies, Washington DC, World Resources Institute. Berkhout, F. (1998), "Aggregate resource efficiency: A review of evidence", in Vellinga, P., Managing a material world: Perspectives in industrial ecology, Dordrecht, Kluwer Fischer-Kowalski, M. (1998), Society's Metabolism. The Intellectual History of Material Flow Analysis, Part I, 1860 - 1970, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 61-78. Fischer-Kowalski, M. and Amann, C. (2001). „Beyond IPAT and Kuznets Curves: Globalization as a Vital Factor in Analysing the Environmental Impact of Socio-Economic Metabolism”, in: Population and Environment, 23: 7-47. Matthews, E., Amann, C., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Bringezu, S., Hüttler, W., Kleijn, R., Moriguchi, Y., Ottke, C., Rodenburg, E., Rogich, D., Schandl, H., Schütz, H., van der Voet, E., and Weisz, H. (2000), The Weight of Nations: Material Outflows from Industrial Economies, Washington, World Resources Institute. Muradian, R. and Martinez-Alier, J. (2001), South-North Materials Flow: History and Environmental Repercussions, Innovation, Vol. 14, No. 2, 171-187. Schandl, H. and Schulz, N. B. (2001), "Industrial Ecology: United Kingdom", in Ayres, R. U. et al., Handbook for Industrial Ecology, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, in print Steurer, Anton, Schütz, Helmut, and Eurostat (2001). Economy-wide Material Flow Accounts and derived Indicators. A methodological guide. Luxenburg, Eurostat. Weisz, H., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Grünbühel, C. M., Haberl, H., Krausmann, F., and Winiwarter, V. (2001), Global Environmental Change and Historical Transitions, Innovation, Vol. 14, No. 2, 117-142.