1. Data Mining – Best Practices CAS 2008 Spring Meeting Quebec City, Canada Louise Francis, FCAS, MAAA Louise_francis@msn.comLouise_francis@msn.com, www.data-mines.com

2. Topics in Data Mining Best Practices Introduction: Data Mining for Management Data Quality Data augmentation Data adjustments Method/Software issues Post deployment monitoring References & Resources

3. Introduction Research by IBM indicates on 1% of data collected by organizations is used for analysis Predictive Modeling and Data Mining widely embraced by leading businesses –2002 Strategic Decision Making survey by Hackett Best Practices determined that world class companies adopted predictive modeling technologies at twice the rate of other companies –Important commercial application is Customer retention: 5% increase in retention  95% increase in profit –It costs 5 to 10 times more to acquire new business Another study of 24 leading companies found that they needed to go beyond simple data collection

4. Successful Implementation of Data Mining Data Mining: Process of discovering previously unknown patterns in databases Needs insights from many different areas Multidisciplinary effort –Quantitative experts –IT –Business experts –Managers –Upper management

5. Manage the Human Side of Analytics Data Collection Communicating business benefits Belief, model understanding, model complexity ‘Tribal’ Knowledge as model attributes Behavioral change and Transparency Disruption in ‘standard’ processes Threat of obsolescence (automation) Pay greater attention to the interaction of models and humans Don’t over rely on the technology and recognize the disruptive role you play Becoming a better practitioner

6. CRISP-DM Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining Standardized approach to data mining www.crisp-dm.org

7. Phases of CRISP-DM

8. Data Quality Scope of problem How it is addressed New educational resources for actuaries

9. Survey of Actuaries Data quality issues have a significant impact on the work of general insurance (P&C) actuaries –About a quarter of their time is spent on such issues –About a third of projects are adversely affected –See “Dirty Data on Both Sides of the Pond” – 2008 CAS Winter Forum –Data quality issues consume significantly more time on large predictive modelling Projects

10. Statistical Data Editing Process of Checking data for errors and correcting them Uses subject matter experts Uses statistical analysis of data May include using methods to “fill in” missing values Final result of SDE is clean data as well as summary of underlying causes of errors See article in Encyclopedia of Data Warehousing and Data Mining

11. EDA: Overview Typically first step in analyzing data Purpose: –Explore structure of the data –Find outliers and errors Uses simple statistics and graphical techniques Examples include histograms, descriptive statistics and frequency tables Step 2 Transformations Aggregations Step 3 Analysis Step 4 Presentation of Results Step 1 Data Collection Step 0 Data Requirements Final Step Decisions

12. EDA: Histograms Step 2 Transformations Aggregations Step 3 Analysis Step 4 Presentation of Results Step 1 Data Collection Step 0 Data Requirements Final Step Decisions

13. Data Educational Materials Working Party Formation The closest thing to data quality on the CAS syllabus are introductions to statistical plans The CAS Data Management and Information Committee realized that SOX and Predictive Modeling have increased the need for quality data So they formed the CAS Data Management Educational Materials working party to find and gather materials to educate actuaries

14. CAS Data Management Educational Materials Working Party Publications Book reviews of data management and data quality texts in the CAS Actuarial Review starting with the August 2006 edition These reviews are combined and compared in “Survey of Data Management and Data Quality Texts,” CAS Forum, Winter 2007, www.casact.org This presentation references our recently published paper: “Actuarial IQ (Information Quality)” published in the Winter 2008 edition of the CAS Forum: http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/08wforum/

15. Data Flow Step 2 Transformations Aggregations Step 3 Analysis Step 4 Presentation of Results Step 1 Data Collection Step 0 Data Requirements Final Step Decisions Information Quality involves all steps: Data Requirements Data Collection Transformations & Aggregations Actuarial Analysis Presentation of Results To improve Final Step: Making Decisions

16. Data Augmentation Add information from Internal data Add information from external data For overview of inexpensive sources of data see: “Free and Cheap Sources of Data”, 2007 Predictive modeling seminar and “External Data Sources” at 2008 Ratemaking Seminar

17. Data Augmentation – Internal Data Create aggregated statistics from internal data sources –Number of lawyers per zip –Claim frequency rate per zip –Frequency of back claims per state Use unstructured data –Text Mining

18. Data Adjustments Trend –Adjust all records to common cost level –Use model to estimate trend Development –Adjust all losses to ultimate –Adjust all losses to a common age –Use model to estimate future development

19. KDnuggets Poll on Data

20. Methods: What are data miners using? How well does it work?

21. Major Kinds of Data Mining Supervised learning –Most common situation –A dependent variable Frequency Loss ratio Fraud/no fraud –Some methods Regression Trees/Machine Learning Some neural networks Unsupervised learning –No dependent variable –Group like records together A group of claims with similar characteristics might be more likely to be fraudulent Ex: Territory assignment, Text Mining –Some methods Association rules K-means clustering Kohonen neural networks

22. KDnuggets Poll on Methods

23. KDnuggets Poll on Open Source Software

24. The Supervised Methods and Software Evaluated Research by Derrig and Francis 1) TREENET7) Iminer Ensemble 2) Iminer Tree8) MARS 3) SPLUS Tree 9) Random Forest 4) CART10) Exhaustive Chaid 5) S-PLUS Neural11) Naïve Bayes (Baseline) 6) Iminer Neural 12) Logistic reg ( (Baseline)

25. TREENET ROC Curve – IME Explain AUROC AUROC = 0.701

26. Plot of AUROC for SIU vs. IME Decision

27. Monitoring Models Monitor use of model Monitor data going into model Monitor performance –This requires more mature data

28. Novelty Detection Problem Statements: At the time of underwriting a risk, how different is the subject risk from the data used to build the model? How are the differences, if any, logically grouped for business meaning An example of model interaction with people to improve business outcomes

29. Clustering Methods Make Models 1.Select features that you are interested in clustering, e.g. Demographics, Risk, Auto, Employment 2.Run cluster algorithms within the grouped features to find homogenous groups (let the data tell you the groupings). Each member has a distance to the ‘center’ of the cluster. 3.Explore each cluster and statistically describe them compared to the entire ‘world’ from the training data; create thresholds for distance to the center that you care about; may add additional description and learning 4.Assign business meaning (names) to cluster members; homogenous group; Deploy; score new data as it becomes available 5.Look at novelty within each cluster on the new sample; distance, single variable differences 6.Use the Threshold to determine differences from the cluster membership. 7.Investigate for business impact or unexpected changes

30. Novelty Score Uses Dimensional Novelty –Market Cycles –Policy Limits –Exposure –Geography –Demographics Operationalize –Book drift –Evaluation of pricing and marketing activities –Model refresh cycle –Regulatory Support Novelty Score: to detect ‘drift’ of aspects of clusters in predictor data over time

31. Example – Automobile Insurance Data

32. Six clusters with the following statistical profile and distribution in the sample set; look a the data and assign names to the groups (in this case 3 variables) WORLD Demographic Features and Clusters The view of the current book

33. Display the distribution of named clusters within the grouping of features (Demographic Cluster) in the test set View of the clusters in the current book business within Demographics

34. Monitor the changes in distribution of the clusters in the data over time Initial Customer Base After 6 months Two clusters now show up in different percentages

35. Humility Models incorporate significant uncertainties about parameters When deployed, models will likely not be as good as they were on historic data Need to appreciate the limitations of the models

36. Additional References www.kdnuggets.com www.r-project.org Encyclopedia of Data Warehousing and Data Mining, John Wang For GLMs: 2004 CAS Discussion Paper Program 2008 Discussion Paper program on multivariate methods “Distinguishing the Forest From the Trees” – 2006 Winter Forum, updated at www.data-mines.com –See other papers by Francis on CAS web site Data Preparation for Data Mining using SAS, Mamdouh Refaat Data Mining for Business Intelligence: Concepts, Techniques and Applications in Microsoft Excel with XL Miner, Shmuel, Patel and Bruce

37. Questions?