Introduction In the last lecture we defined and measured some key macroeconomic variables. Now we start building theories about what determines these key.
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0 National Income: Where it Comes From and Where it Goes Topic 3:National Income: Where it Comes From and Where it Goes(chapter 3) revised 9/21/09These are three of the most important economic statistics. Policymakers and businesspersons use them to monitor the economy and formulate appropriate policies. Economists use them to develop and test theories about how the economy works. Because we’ll be learning many of these theories, it’s worth spending some time now to really understand what these statistics mean, and how they are measured.
1 IntroductionIn the last lecture we defined and measured some key macroeconomic variables.Now we start building theories about what determines these key variables.In the next couple lectures we will build up theories that we think hold in the long run, when______________________.Called ___________________ theory.
2 The Neoclassical model Is a general equilibrium model:Involves multiple _____.each with own supply and demand____ in each market adjusts to make quantity demanded equal quantity supplied.
3 Neoclassical model The macroeconomy involves three types of markets: needed to produce goods and services3.Are also three types of agents in an economy:HouseholdsFirmsGovernment
4 Three Markets – Three agents Labor MarkethiringworkFinancial MarketborrowingborrowingsavingHouseholdsGovernmentFirmsproductiongovernmentspendingconsumptioninvestmentGoods Market
5 Neoclassical modelAgents interact in markets, where they may be demander in one market and supplier in another1) Goods market:Supply:Demand: by households for consumption, government spending, and other firms demand them for investment
6 Neoclassical model 2) Labor market (factors of production) Supply: Demand:3) Financial marketDemand: firms borrow funds for investment; government borrows funds to finance expenditures.
7 Neoclassical modelWe will develop a set of equations to charac-terize supply and demand in these marketsThen use algebra to solve these equations together, and see how they interact to establish a general equilibrium.Start with production…
8 Part 1: Supply in goods market: Production Supply in the goods market depends on a production function:denoted Y = F (K, L)WhereK =L =In the simple model of this chapter, we think of capital as plant & equipment. In the real world, capital also includes inventories and residential housing, as discussed in Chapter 2.Students may have learned in their principles course that “land” or “land and natural resources” is an additional factor of production. In macro, we mainly focus on labor and capital, though. So, to keep our model simple, we usually omit land as a factor of production, as we can learn much of what we need to know about macroeconomics without the factor of production land.
9 The production function shows how much output (Y ) the economy can produce from K units of capital and L units of labor.reflects the economy’s level of technology.Generally, we will assume it exhibits constant returns to scale.
10 Returns to scale Initially Y1 = F (K1 , L1 ) Scale all inputs by the same factor z:K2 = zK1 and L2 = zL for z>1(If z = 1.25, then all inputs increase by 25%)What happens to output, Y2 = F (K2 , L2 ) ?If ______ returns to scale, Y2 = zY1If ______ returns to scale, Y2 > zY1If ______ returns to scale, Y2 < zY1
11 Exercise: determine returns to scale Determine whether each the following production function has constant, increasing, or decreasing returns to scale:Answers:(a) and (b) have constant returns to scale. (c) has decreasing returns to scale.An easy way to see this is to pick two values for K and L (say, K=1 and L=1), and a value for z (say, z=2). Then, compare F(K,L) with F(zK,zL).
12 Assumptions of the model Technology is fixed.The economy’s supplies of capital and labor are fixed atEmphasize that “K” and “L” (without bars on top) are variables - they can take on various magnitudes. On the other hand, “Kbar” and “Lbar” are specific values of these variables. Hence, “K = Kbar” means that the variable K equals the specific amount Kbar.Regarding the assumptions:In chapters 7 and 8 (Economic Growth I and II), we will relax these assumptions: K and L will grow in response to investment and population growth, respectively, and the level of technology will increase over time.
13 Determining GDPOutput is determined by the fixed factor supplies and the fixed state of technology:So we have a simple initial theory of supply in the goods market:Again, emphasize that “F(Kbar,Lbar)” means we are evaluating the function at a particular combination of capital and labor. The resulting value of output is called “Ybar”.
14 Part 2: Equilibrium in the factors market Equilibrium is where factor supply equals factor demand.Recall: Supply of factors is fixed.Demand for factors comes from firms.Recall from chapter 2: the value of output equals the value of income. The income is paid to the workers, capital owners, land owners, and so forth. We now explore a simple theory of income distribution.
15 Demand in factors market Analyze the decision of a typical firm.It buys labor in the labor market, where _____________.It rents capital in the factors market, __________.It uses labor and capital to produce the good, which it sells in the goods market, at price P.
16 Demand in factors market Assume the market is competitive:Each firm is small relative to the market, so its actions do not affect the market prices.It takes ____________________________________________________________________
17 Demand in factors market It then chooses the optimal quantity of Labor and capital to maximize its profit.How write profit:Profit = revenue -labor costs -capital costs=
18 Demand in the factors market Increasing hiring of L will have two effects:1) Benefit:2) Cost:To see how much output rises, we need the marginal product of labor (MPL)
19 Marginal product of labor (MPL) An approximate definition (used in text) : The extra output the firm can produce using one additional labor (holding other inputs fixed):MPL = F (K, L +1) – F (K, L)
20 The MPL and the production function Youtput1MPLAs more labor is added:1MPL(Figure 3-3 on p.49)To the instructor:It’s straightforward to see that the MPL = the prod function’s slope: The definition of the slope of a curve is the amount the curve rises when you move one unit to the right. On this graph, moving one unit to the right simply means using one additional unit of labor. The amount the curve rises is the amount by which output increases: the MPL.Slope…MPL1Llabor
21 Diminishing marginal returns As a factor input is increased, its marginal product falls (other things equal).Intuition: L while holding K fixed fewer machines per worker lower productivityTell class: Many production functions have this property.This slide introduces some short-hand notation that will appear throughout the PowerPoint presentations of the remaining chapters:The up and down arrows mean increase and decrease, respectively.The symbol “” means “causes” or “leads to.”Hence, the text after “Intuition” should be read as follows:“An increase in labor while holding capital fixed causes there to be fewer machines per worker, which causes lower productivity.”Many instructors use this type of short-hand (or something very similar), and it’s much easier and quicker for students to write down in their notes.
22 MPL with calculus We can give a more precise definition of MPL: where D is ‘delta’ and represents changeEarlier definition assumed that DL=1.F (K, L +1) – F (K, L)We can consider smaller change in labor.
23 MPL as a derivative As we take the limit for small change in L: Which is the definition of the (partial) derivative of the production function with respect to L, treating K as a constant.This shows the slope of the production function at any particular point, which is what we want.
24 The MPL and the production function YoutputMPL is slope of the production function (rise over run)F (K, L +DL) – F (K, L))(Figure 3-3 on p.49)To the instructor:It’s straightforward to see that the MPL = the prod function’s slope: The definition of the slope of a curve is the amount the curve rises when you move one unit to the right. On this graph, moving one unit to the right simply means using one additional unit of labor. The amount the curve rises is the amount by which output increases: the MPL.Llabor
25 Derivative as marginal product Y963L149fL:F(L):L:0.756941
26 Return to firm problem: hiring L Firm chooses L to maximize its profit.How will increasing L change profit?D profit = D revenue - D cost= ______________If this is: > 0 should ________< 0 should ________= 0 ______________
27 Firm problem continued So the firm’s demand for labor is determined by the condition:___________Hires more and more L, until MPL falls enough to satisfy the condition.Also may be written:________, where W/P is the ‘real wage’
28 Real wage Think about units: W = ______ P = _______ W/P = ($/hour) / ($/good) = _________The amount of purchasing power, measured in units of goods, that firms pay per unit of work
29 Example: deriving labor demand Suppose a production function for all firms in the economy:
32 MPL and the demand for labor Units of outputUnits of labor, LEach firm hires labor up to the point where MPL = W/PMPL, Labor ____________ ____It’s easy to see that the MPL curve is the firm’s L demand curve.Let L* be the value of L such that MPL = W/P.Suppose L < L*. Then, benefit of hiring one more worker (MPL) exceeds cost (W/P), so firm can increase profits by hiring one more worker.Instead, suppose L > L*. Then, the benefit of the last worker hired (MPL) is less than the cost (W/P), so firm should reduce labor to increase its profits.When L = L*, then firm cannot increase its profits either by raising or lowering L.Hence, firm hires L to the point where MPL = W/P.This establishes that the MPL curve is the firm’s labor demand curve.
33 Determining the rental rate We have just seen that MPL = W/PThe same logic shows that MPK = _____:diminishing returns to ______: MPK as K The MPK curve is the firm’s demand curve for renting capital.Firms maximize profits by choosing K such that MPK = _____ .In our model, it’s easiest to think of firms renting capital from households (the owners of all factors of production). R/P is the real cost of renting a unit of K for one period of time. In the real world, of course, many firms own some of their capital. But, for such a firm, the market rental rate is the opportunity cost of using its own capital instead of renting it to another firm. Hence, R/P is the relevant “price” in firms’ capital demand decisions, whether firms own their capital or rent it.
34 How income is distributed: We found that if markets are competitive, then factors of production will be paid their marginal contribution to the production process.total labor income =_________________The last equation follows from Euler’s theorem, discussed in text on p. 52.total capital income =_________________
35 Euler’s theorem:Under our assumptions (constant returns to scale, profit maximization, and competitive markets)…total output is divided between the payments to capital and labor, depending on their marginal productivities, __________________________._____________________________
36 Mathematical exampleConsider a production function with Cobb-Douglas form:Y = AKL1-where A is a constant, representing technologyShow this has constant returns to scale:multiply factors by Z:F(ZK,ZY) = A (ZK) (ZL)1-= A Z K Z1- L1-= A Z Z1- K L1-= Z x A K L1-= Z x F(K,L)
37 Mathematical example continued Compute marginal products:MPL =MPK =Compute total factor payments:MPL x L + MPK x K==YSo total factor payments equals total production.
38 Outline of model A closed economy, market-clearing model Goods market: Supply side: productionDemand side: C, I, and GFactors marketSupply sideDemand sideLoanable funds marketSupply side: savingDemand side: borrowingDONE Next DONE DONE
39 Demand for goods & services Components of aggregate demand:C =I =G = government demand for g & s(closed economy: no NX )“g & s” is short for “goods & services”
40 Consumption, C def: disposable income (Y-T) is: Consumption function: __________Shows that______________def: The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) isSo MPC = derivative of the consumption function with respect to disposable incomeMPC must be between 0 and 1.Again, we are using the short-hand notation that will appear throughout the remaining PowerPoints:X Y means “an increase in X causes a decrease in Y.”Please feel free to edit slides if you wish to substitute other notation.
41 The consumption function Y – TC (Y –T )The slope of the consumption function is the MPC.riserun
42 Consumption function cont. Suppose consumption function:C= YMPC = _____For extra dollar of income, spend _____ dollars consumptionMarginal propensity to save = _____
43 Investment, I The investment function is I = I (r ), where r denotes the real interest rate, the nominal interest rate corrected for inflation.The real interest rate is the cost of borrowing the opportunity cost of using one’s own funds to finance investment spending.So, _______
44 The investment function rISpending on investment goods is a downward-sloping function of the real interest rateI (r )
45 Government spending, GG includes government spending on goods and services.G excludes transfer paymentsAssume government spending and total taxes are exogenous:It might be useful to remind students of the meaning of the terms “exogenous” and “transfer payments.”
46 The market for goods & services The real interest rate ___________________________________.Note the only variable in the equilibrium condition that doesn’t have a “bar” over it is the real interest rate.When the full slide is showing, before you advance to the next one, you might want to note that the interest rate is important in financial markets as well, so we will next develop a simple model of the financial system.
47 The loanable funds market A simple supply-demand model of the financial system.One asset: “loanable funds”demand for funds: investmentsupply of funds: saving“price” of funds: real interest rate
48 Demand for funds: Investment The demand for loanable funds:comes from investment: Firms borrow to finance spending on plant & equipment, new office buildings, etc. Consumers borrow to buy new houses.depends negatively on r , the “price” of loanable funds (the cost of borrowing).
49 Loanable funds demand curve IThe investment curve is also the demand curve for loanable funds.I (r )
50 Supply of funds: Saving The supply of loanable funds comes from saving:Households use their saving to make bank deposits, purchase bonds and other assets. These funds become available to firms to borrow to finance investment spending.The government may also contribute to saving if it does not spend all of the tax revenue it receives.
51 Types of saving private saving = public saving = national saving, S = (Y –T ) – C T – G=After showing definition of private saving,- give the interpretation of the equation: private saving is disposable income minus consumption spending- explain why private saving is part of the supply of loanable funds:Suppose a person earns $50,000/year, pays $10,000 in taxes, and spends $35,000 on goods and services. There’s $5000 remaining. What happens to that $5000? The person might use it to buy stocks or bonds, or she might put it in her savings account or money market deposit account. In all of these cases, this $5000 becomes part of the supply of loanable funds in the financial system.After displaying public saving, explain the equation’s interpretation: public saving is tax revenue minus government spending.Notice the analogy to private saving – both concepts represent income less spending: for the private household, income is (Y-T) and spending is C. For the government, income is T and spending is G.
52 EXERCISE: Calculate the change in saving Suppose MPC = 0.8 and MPL = 20.For each of the following, compute S :G = 100T = 100
53 AnswersFirst, in the box at the top of the slide, we plug the given value for the MPC into the expression for S and simplify. Then, finding the answers is straightforward: just plug in the given values into the expression for S.
54 digression: Budget surpluses and deficits When T > G , budget ______ = (T – G ) = public savingWhen T < G , budget ______ = (G –T ) and public saving is negative.When T = G , budget is balanced and public saving = ___.
55 Loanable funds supply curve S, INational saving does not depend on r, so the supply curve is vertical.
56 Loanable funds market equilibrium S, II (r )Equilibrium real interest rateEquilibrium level of investment
57 The special role of rr adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously:If L.F. market in equilibrium, thenY – C – G = IAdd (C +G ) to both sides to getY = C + I + G (goods market eq’m)Thus,This slide establishes that we can use the loanable funds supply/demand diagram to see how the interest rate that clears the goods market is determined.Explain that the symbol means each one implies the other. The thing on the left implies the thing on the right, and vice versa.More short-hand: “eq’m” is short for “equilibrium.”Eq’m in L.F. marketEq’m in goods market
58 Algebra example Suppose an economy characterized by: Factors market supply:labor supply= 1000Capital stock supply=1000Goods market supply:Production function: Y = 3K + 2LGoods market demand:Consumption function: C = (Y-T)Investment function: I = 1000 – 5000rG=1000, T = 1000
59 Algebra example continued Given the exogenous variables (Y, G, T), find the equilibrium values of the endogenous variables (r, C, I)Find r using the goods market equilibrium condition:Y = C + I + G5000 = ( ) +1000-5000r5000 = 5250 – 5000r__________________________so r = _____And I = 1000 – 5000*(0.05) = ______C = ( ) = ______
60 Mastering the loanable funds model Things that shift the saving curve_________________: changes in G or T_______preferencestax laws that affect saving (401(k), IRA)Continuing from the previous slide, let’s look at all the things that affect the S curve. Then, we will pick one of those things and use the model to analyze its effects on the endogenous variables. Then, we’ll do the same for the I curve.
61 CASE STUDY The Reagan Deficits Reagan policies during early 1980s:increases in defense spending: G > 0big tax cuts: T < 0According to our model, both policies reduce national saving:
62 1. The Reagan deficits, cont. 1. The increase in the deficit reduces saving…rS, II (r )2. …which causes the real interest rate to rise…r13. …which reduces the level of investment.I1
63 Chapter summary Total output is determined by how much capital and labor the economy hasthe level of technologyCompetitive firms hire each factor until its marginal product equals its price.If the production function has constant returns to scale, then labor income plus capital income equals total income (output).
64 Chapter summary The economy’s output is used for consumption (which depends on disposable income)investment (depends on the real interest rate)government spending (exogenous)The real interest rate adjusts to equate the demand for and supply ofgoods and servicesloanable funds
65 Chapter summaryA decrease in national saving causes the interest rate to rise and investment to fall.An increase in investment demand causes the interest rate to rise, but does not affect the equilibrium level of investment if the supply of loanable funds is fixed.