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chapter 21 The Demand For Money
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 2 Quantity Theory of Money Velocity P Y V = M Equation of Exchange M V = P Y Quantity Theory of Money 1. Irving Fisher’s view: V is fairly constant 2. Equation of exchange no longer identity 3. Nominal income, PY, determined by M 4. Classicals assume Y fairly constant 5. P determined by M Quantity Theory of Money Demand 1 M = PY V M d = k PY Implication: interest rates not important to M d
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 3 Cambridge Approach Looks at motives for holding money 1.Medium of exchange—related to Y 2.Store of wealth—related to Y M d = k PY Looks like Quantity Theory, but is different 1.k could fluctuate in short-run because of change in i and RET e on other assets Is velocity constant? 1.Classicals thought V constant because didn’t have good data 2.After Great Depression, economists realized velocity far from constant
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 4 Change in Velocity from Year to Year: 1915–99
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 5 Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory 3 Motives are in Cambridge tradition 1.Transactions motive—related to Y 2.Precautionary motive—related to Y 3.Speculative motive A. related to W and Y B. negatively related to i Liquidity Preference M d = f(i, Y) P–+
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 6 Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory Implication: Velocity not constant P1 = M d f(i,Y) Multiply both sides by Y and M = M d PYY V = = Mf(i,Y) 1. i , f(i,Y) , V 2. Change in expectations of future i, change f(i,Y) and V changes
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 7 Baumol-Tobin Model of Transactions Demand Assumptions 1.Income of $1000 each month 2.2 assets: money and bonds If keep all income in cash 1.Yearly income = $12,000 2.Average money balances = $1000/2 3.Velocity = $12,000/$500 = 24 Keep only 1/2 payment in cash 1.Yearly income = $12,000 2.Average money balances = $500/2 = $250 3.Velocity = $12,000/$250 = 48 Trade-off of keeping less cash 1.Income gain = i $500/2 2.Increased transactions costs Conclusion: Higher is i and income gain, less likely to hold cash: Therefore i , M d
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 8 Keep Full Payment in Cash
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 9 Keep Only 1/2 Payment in Cash
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 10 Precautionary and Speculative M d Precautionary Demand Similar tradeoff to Baumol-Tobin framework 1. Benefits of precautionary balances 2. Opportunity cost of interest foregone Conclusion: i , opportunity cost , hold less precautionary balances, M d Speculative Demand Problems with Keynes’s framework: Hold all bonds or all money: no diversification Tobin Model: 1. People want high RET e, but low risk 2. As i , hold more bonds and less M, but still diversify and hold M Problem with Tobin model: Maybe no speculative demand because T-bills have no risk (like money) but have higher return
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 11 Friedman’s Quantity Theory Theory of asset demand: M d function of wealth (Y P ) and relative RET e of other assets M d = f(Y P, r b – r m, r e – r m, e – r m ) P+––– Differences from Keynesian Theories 1.Other assets besides money and bonds: equities and real goods 2.Real goods as alternative asset to money implies M has direct effects on spending 3.r m not constant: r b , r m , r b – r m unchanged, so M d unchanged: i.e., interest rates have little effect on M d 4.M d is a stable function Implication of 3: M d Y = f(Y P ) V = Pf(Y P ) Since relationship of Y and Y P predictable, 4 implies V is predictable: Get Q- theory view that change in M leads to predictable changes in nominal income, PY
Copyright © 2001 Addison Wesley Longman TM 21- 12 Empirical Evidence on Money Demand Interest Sensitivity of Money Demand Is sensitive, but no liquidity trap Stability of Money Demand 1.M1 demand stable till 1973, unstable after 2.1973-82: Case of Missing Money, M1 velocity overpredicted 3.After 1982, M1 velocity slowdown underpredicted 4.M2 demand stable in 1980s, unstable in 1990s. 5.Most likely source of instability is financial innovation
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