1. Introduction Very Long Energy and Environmental Model: Outline of the Methodology T.Hamacher, M. Biberacher and the VLEEM consortium Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik

2. Introduction 1.Objective of VLEEM 2.Back-casting 3.The GIS interface 4.Global link as example 5.Conclusion and outlook

3. Objective of VLEEM The VLEEM project - sponsored by the DG- Research - should develop R&D guidelines for the European Energy Research.

4. Back-casting The goal of VLEEM is to develop a system view of possible future technologies and the possible contributions of these technologies to a sustainable energy future. Emphasise is more put on the technology than on the economy. Renewable FossilNuclear

5. The tool box GIS- Interface Energy- ressource database BALANCE Energy- technology database User- Interface BASESTASES Special models

6. The tool box BASES: module to estimate the future energy demand. Special emphasise is put on time budgets to describe the energy demand. BALANCE: module to describe the trajectory from today to the future end-point of the investigation. The module is based on a simple LP-approach. TASES: module to describe the future sustainable end- point and to “prove” the feasibility of certain technological solutions.

7. Global link as example One of the crucial questions for a prosperous future of renewable energies is the way the intermittent nature of wind and solar will be treated. While in a lot of studies hydrogen is proposed as possible way out, in VLEEM a second option is also investigated, a so called global link.

8. Global link: motivation Possible sites for off-shore wind parks in the North and Baltic sea.

9. Global link: motivation The installation of off-shore wind parks will not only impact the German network.

10. Global link: motivation Contribution of wind to the total demand.

11. green: max. use of capacity < 80% (no problem) blue: max. use of capacity 80% - 100% (could become critical) red: max. use of capacity 100% (critical) magenta: max. use of capacity >> 100% (new capacity needs to be installed) Global link: motivation Necessary enforcement of the German Grid.

12. Global link as example

13. World is divided in several regions.... represented by an hourly scattered load curve for on year regarding electricity demand (in TWh) electricity exchange between neighbour regions is possible electricity demand distribution windPV storage Assumption: Electricity demand in 2100 will be covered by solar- and wind power. Global link as example

14. Source: IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives, 1998 NEEDSSUPPLY force values to norm load curve Source: UCTE Statistical Yearbook 2000 shift and merge curves to regional appearing time zones % % % % % % % % % % Solar radiation increasing % % % % % % % % % % Wind speed Global link as example

15. Global link (data series preparation) for each raster slice one year hourly resoluted curves for wind speed... world is covered by a 5° x 5° grid pattern... and solar insolation are available

16. ... no storage available storage installations... storage available and expensive... storage available and becomes cheaper... storage available and very cheap Backgrounding limitations: only 0.5 % of earth surface per 5° x 5° can be utilised for solar radiation collection only 1.25 GW wind power can be installed per 10‘000 km 2 earth surface installed solar power plant installed wind power plant electricity exchange Global link as example

17. Comparison of cumulated numbers for the scenarios with different storage cost assumptions: tremendous grid capacities necessary – but it can be reduced by the combination with storage facilities; available storage capacities are suitable to increase grid exertion; storage installations increase with deacreasing cost assumptions; solar power profits from the combination with storage facilities more as from the connection to a global grid; fluctuations in wind power are more or less completely compensated by a global grid – no storage is necessary ; Global link as example

18. *electricity networks seem to be one of the bottlenecks in the employment of renewables (beside the cost) *R&D in new transmission technologies like super-conducting cables and system behaviour seem necessary *R&D in the system behaviour of large intra-continental electricity networks seems necessary

19. Conclusion and outlook *A toolbox was developed that is capable to fulfil the VLEEM objectives *first more comprehensive examples were developed *three major scenarios are under way and will be ready at the end of the year

20. 20% What happens if it is assumed that part of the base load will be covered by conventional plant? will be covered by near located (in a global context) base load plant and is therefore decoupled from the global optimisation power load curve of electricity demand Although the leaving part in the demand as well as the leaving supply technologies (wind and solar) show high fluctuations, the global assumed installations for grid, storage and solar power can be reduced evidently. Global link as example

21. Optimum 1.Necessary potentials are available; 2.Needed storage capacities are strongly reduced by a global grid; 3.Day/night fluctuations in solar power can completely compensated only by storage facilities and not by the connection to a global grid; 4.In opposite to solar power, the fluctuations in wind power are mostly compensated via the global connection. Optimum in the scenario pattern would be a combination of net facilities and storage facilities because in that case the necessary installations would be at the lowest Global link as example