1. North-South Migration Circulation Frequent movers between Sweden and the Global South Research project based on earlier studies of return migration in US-Mexican and Swedish-Chilean context Qualitative studies showed that return migration was not definitive In both cases tendencies towards migration circulation

2. Transnational citizens or circulating semi- proletarians? The emerging field of research on transnational migration Qualitative work with theoretical contributions In what contexts is transnationalism being formed? Interest in examining the larger picture of migration circulation

3. Research questions Is migration circulation a large and growing share of North-South migration? What are the characteristics of migration circulators (gender, country of birth/destination, age) Does Swedish citizenship lead to circulation? Are circulators more likely to be in the high- end and low-end labour market hierarchy (education and income)?

4. Data Longitudinal register data covering immigration and emigration between from 1968 to 2002. Sampling procedure 1.Select all individuals being registered in Sweden 2002. 2.Select all individuals born in any of the five regions: a) America (except the USA & Canada); b) Northern Africa & the Middle East; c) Africa; d) Iran & Iraq; e) Asia, Turkey & Oceania (except Japan, Australia, and New Zeeland)  ca 400 000 people

5. Three groups of analysis 400 000 people  1.Circular migrants (three migration events): 1) immigrated to Sweden, 2) emigrated to any foreign country, 3) immigrated to Sweden (13 400 people – 3.5%) 2.Double circular migrants (≥ 5 migration events): two or more rounds of circular migration (1 100 people – 0.3%) 3.Stayers: immigrated to Sweden before 2002 and are not observed as emigrants or re-immigrants in the registers (384 400 people)

6. CharacteristicsCircular migrants Double circular migrants StayersSwedish population Men/Women (%)54/4658/4250/50 Age (Men/Women, average, years)41/3844/4034/3441/41 Married (%)48495244 University education (≥3 years, %)18.220.714.814.9 Income from work (average, SEK)87 00078 70084 700148 800 Income from self-employment4 5006 0005 0003 800 Early retirement pension7 1009 0005 5006 100 Unemployment benefits4 7003 6005 3005 700 Study allowances5 4003 9005 7004 800 Parents’ allowance3 1002 1004 1002 800 Sum social benefits*11 70011 10012 8006 300 Disposable income of the household204 500180 000222 600254 000 * This variable is the sum of disability pension (handikappersättning), social allowance socialbidrag), occupational injury annuity (arbetsskadelivränta), and income from occupational injury, rehabilitation and illness (inkomst föranledd av sjukdom, arbetsskada och rehabilitering).

7. Estimation results Circular migrants versus Stayers Men have higher probability of being circular migrants Having Swedish citizenship increases the likelihood of being a circular migrant Circular migrants are more likely to be older, non- married and having a Latin American country of birth The probability of being a circular migrant increases by higher education. Low-income earners (<150’ SEK/year) are more likely to be circular migrants. High-income earners (>300’ SEK/year) are not more likely to be circular migrants.

8. Conclusions Selective feminisation of circular migration (Latin America and Asia). Swedish citizenship enables circulation (Exception in the Latin American case due to Swedish return policy towards Chilean citizens)

9. Conclusions Low percentage of North-South migrants are circulators (3.5%) Actual mobility and transnational links may be more important than the registered migrants But the phenomenon seems to be highly limited and restricted

10. Migration circulation is associated with high education and low income Vicious circle of exclusion from Swedish labour market and continued migration Double circulation aggravates these problems Not individual problem of qualification Structural problem of discrimination Lose-lose-lose rather than win-win-win? Conclusions

11. Region of originCircular migrantsDouble circular migrants Circulation to the region of origin (%) Other most frequent destinati on (region, %) Circulation to the region of origin (%) Other most frequent destinati on (region, %) Latin America69Southern Europe (4.6%) 71Southern Europe (5.3%) Northern Africa & The Middle East 60Central Europe (8.3%) 63Denmark (6.2%) Africa43Central Europe (13.3%) 46Central Europe (14%) Iran & Iraq31USA & Canada (16.6%) 33USA & Canada (16.2%) Asia, Turkey & Oceania 49Central Europe (9.3%) 46Denmark (9.9%)

12. Circular migrants/StayersDouble circular migrants/Stayers Circular migrants/Double circular migrants Variable CoefficientSignCoefficientSignCoefficientSign University (≥3 y)0.274.0000.461.008-0.171.347 Compulsory school-0.087.028-0.063.6240.008.950 High-income earner (>300’)-0.073.637-0.800.2680.725.326 Low-income earner (<150’)0.257.0000.472.002-0.188.229 Born Latin America1.047.0001.407.000-0.359.050 Born Northern Africa0.340.0000.693.000-0.350.070 Born Africa0.100.121-0.090.7090.202.421 Born Iran/Iraq-0.483.000-0.630.0020.126.557 Woman-0.291.000-0.471.0000.180.144 Age0.017.0000.018.000-0.006.283 Marriage-0.186.000-0.280.0210.063.615 Swedish citizen0.499.0000.310.0100.154.207 Early retirement pension0.001.0010.001.1550.000.538 Study allowances0.001.1280.001.4030.000.348 Parents’ allowance0.001.145-0.001.0430.001.133 Sum social benefits0.001.0000.001.0230.000.474 Constant-4.405.000-6.830.0002.655.000 LOG-L-29 737-4 050-2 138 N115 388108 1703 799

13. Region of origin Circular migrants Double circular migrants Stayers Numbers% % % Latin America4 22531.539334.757 10614.9 Northern Africa & The Middle East2 20916.520918.550 78013.2 Africa1 46310.91008.846 71512.2 Iran & Iraq2 23516.714813.1112 95129.4 Asia, Turkey & Oceania3 28524.528224.9116 82830.4 Total 13 4171001 132100384 380100

14. Estimation results Double circular migrants versus Stayers: The results of the analysis are similar to the previous analysis. Circular migrants versus Double circular migrants: Strong resemblance between circular migrants and double circular migrants – insignificant parameter estimates.