2. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Should we place a limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development? Discussion Point 5:

3. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 10 9 kg CO 2 ) Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

4. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 10 9 kg CO 2 ) Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

5. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global Carbon Cycle Fossil- fuel burning 5.3 Land use 0.6 – 2.6 Photosynthesis 100-120 Plant respiration 40 - 50 Decay of residues 50 - 60 Sea-surface gas exchange 100 - 115 Net ocean uptake 1.6 – 2.4 Numbers are billions of tons of carbon Geological reservoir

6. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere (in ppmv) Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations 385.3 ppmv in 2008 275 ppmv in pre- industrial time

7. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

8. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The Greenhouse effect A T M O S P H E R E S U N

9. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.

10. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs

11. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs

12. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. Global Warming

13. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global temperature anomalies from land meteorological stations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Base period

14. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Base period

15. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Base period

16. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2 o C during the past 100 centuries. The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.

17. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Consequences…………

18. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Consequences………… Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/ Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015. World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea.

19. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 death of coral reefs fewer cubs for p olar bears spread of dengue and other diseases heavy rains & severe draughts fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes changed rainfall patterns warming and aridity loss of biodiversity Consequences…………

20. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Rate of increase of CO 2 concentration (in ppmv/year) Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013 and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html 1.8 ppmv/year in 2008

21. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv) global temperature may be up by 2 o C

22. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO 2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO 2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2 o C (compare it with the 0.01 o C per decade estimate by WWF).

23. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Some say, forget about the 2 o C. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO 2. It is 550 ppmv CO 2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not.

24. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 We are lucky. Are we? CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv)

25. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sustainable Limit Calculations

26. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO 2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 10 12 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

27. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO 2 equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:

28. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit

29. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit Norway Singapore Japan Iceland

30. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + EI 3 + GDPI 3 LI (Life Index) = Life Expectancy - 25 85 - 25 GDPI (GDP Index) = ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) EI (Education Index) = 2 Adult Literacy 3 100 1 School Enrollment 3 100 +

31. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm Sustainable limit HDI > 0.8 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO 2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) USA Sri Lanka

32. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Discussion Point 6: How to limit the CO 2 emissions below the sustainable limit? Take 10 mins.

33. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.

34. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

35. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO 2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

36. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Energy from sustainably managed renewable sources Ulf Bossel – October 2005 Solar energyPhotovoltaicDC electricity thermalAC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. Wind energyAC electricity HydropowerAC electricity Ocean energywaves, tidesAC electricity GeothermalheatAC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. Biomass & organic waste heat, organic fuels Biomass & organic waste heatAC electricity, hot water, space heating etc.

37. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 10 15 BTU) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

38. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

39. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

40. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

41. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit- oriented energy markets.

42. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 More people More pollution Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population

43. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power Electricity use in 2006

44. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 in 2005

45. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 in 2005

46. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.

47. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Controversial since permanent storage of CO 2 underground is not guaranteed

48. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (very fragile) are not known

49. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Discussion Point 7: What could you do to limit the CO 2 emissions below the sustainable limit as an engineer? Take 10 mins.

50. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Food for thought: What are the Engineering Challenges to sustainability? Global climate change Energy production and use Food production Resources depletion Toxics in the environment Making sustainable lifestyles attractive Base for your CP551 project

51. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics