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Burton G. Malkiel Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics Princeton University “Investing in a Restrained Market” University of Pennsylvania January.

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Presentation on theme: "Burton G. Malkiel Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics Princeton University “Investing in a Restrained Market” University of Pennsylvania January."— Presentation transcript:

1 Burton G. Malkiel Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics Princeton University “Investing in a Restrained Market” University of Pennsylvania January 17, 2006

2 Exhibit 1

3 Exhibit 2 January, 2006

4 Exhibit 3

5 Exhibit 4

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8 Exhibit 5

9 Exhibit 6 So Does Rebalancing

10 Exhibit 7

11 Exhibit 8 Asset Allocation for Person in Mid-Fifties

12 Suggested Asset Allocation Retirement Portfolio Exhibit 9

13 Exhibit 10 BOW TO THE WISDOM OF THE MARKET Markets are reasonably efficient Index Funds Outperform Past is not prologue

14 The Case for Indexing continues to be strong The Case for Active Management continues to be weak Percent of Large Capitalization Equity Funds Outperformed by Index Ending December 31, 2004. 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs S&P vs. Large Cap Equity 74%76%63%86%90% Funds Exhibit 11

15 Exhibit 12 Index Funds tend to outperform by Over Two Percentage Points Comparison of Returns-Average Equity Fund vs. Indexes 10 Yrs 20 Yrs to 12/31/04 to 12/31/04 S&P 500 Index 12.00% 12.78% Average Equity Fund* 9.30% 10.54% S&P 500 Advantage 2.70 2.48 (percentage points) Source: Lipper, Wilshire, & the Vanguard Group. *Consists of ALL Lipper equity categories.

16 Exhibit 13

17 Fund Name 12/31/1996 12/31/1999 Ann Total Return 12/31/1999 12/31/2002 Ann Total Return 99 – 02 Rank (851 total funds) 1 Rydex: OTC Fund; Inv65.82-37.07841 2 RS Inv: Emerg Growth62.46-31.17832 3 Morg Stan Cap Oppty; B59.47-40.72845 4 Janus Olympus Fund58.49-27.42791 5 Janus Twenty54.79-28.63801 6 Managers: Capital Apprec53.28-28.20798 7 Janus Mercury51.51-27.24790 8 Fidelity Aggr Growth51.46-39.09843 9 Van Wagoner: Emrg Growth50.05-51.66851 10 WM: Growth; A49.67-27.88793 11 Janus Venture49.56-29.70819 12 Van Kampen Emerg Growth;A49.34-26.38785 13 Fidelity New Millennium49.22-14.90500 14 PBHG: Sel Equity;PBHG49.14-33.45837 15 Janus Enterprise48.71-33.11836 16 TCW Galileo:SC Growth;Instl45.95-39.32844 17 Morg Stan Inst: MC Growth;l45.42-23.28735 18 Morg Stan Spec Growth;B45.34-41.46846 19 IDEX: Jan Growth;T44.96-28.70802 20 ING: SmCp Opptys;B44.06-30.64826 Average – Top 2051.44-32.00 S&P 50027.56-14.55 Exhibit 14 Getting Burned by Hot Funds

18 Exhibit 15

19 Exhibit 16 Percentage of Actively Managed Bond Funds Outperformed by Benchmark 10 Years Ended 12/31/04 Short-term Intermediate-term Long-term Gov’t.Corp.GNMAHigh-Yield 98%100%90%83% 9099 7583 Source: Lipper Inc. and Morningstar, Inc.

20 Exhibit 17 How to Buy Bonds Taxable vs. Tax Exempt Mutual Funds NJ/PA Money Market Fund NJ/PA (insured) Long-Term Bond Fund Buy Bonds Directly Only buy insured new issues Yields today about 4½% for insured bonds (AAA)

21 Exhibit 18 DON’T BE YOUR OWN WORST ENEMY AVOID STUPID INVESTOR TRICKS Overconfidence Herding Loss Aversion A couple of other common errors - Hot tip Investing - New Issue Investing

22 Exhibit 19 Retirement Strategies Buy Annuities Pro: Surest way to guarantee you won’t Outlive your money Con: Expensive, inflexible, and inconsistent With a bequest motive. Do it Yourself 1. Determine the takeout rate Assume Portfolio half equities (7 ½ % return) and half bonds (5% return). Average return6 ¼ % Minus Inflation Adjustment2 % Takeout rate4 ¼ % 2. Rebalance– Take money out of best performing asset class


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