1. Risk assessment of natural hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office – an overview Sigrún Karlsdóttir Eiríkur Gíslason Trausti Jónsson Evgenia Ilyinskaya

2. Content The role of the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) Natural hazards in Iceland Methodology Risk assessment activities at IMO Snow avalances, slush flows, landslides, debri flows and rockfall Volcanic eruptions Floods

3. The role of the Icelandic Meteorological Office The main purpose of IMO is to contribute towards increased security and efficiency in society by: Monitoring, analyzing, interpreting, informing, giving advice and counsel, providing warnings and forecasts and where possible, predicting natural processes and natural hazards. Issuing public and aviation alerts about impending natural hazards, such as volcanic ash, extreme weather and flooding Atmosphere Water, snow, glaciers EarthOcean Geophysical processes

4. Natural Hazards in Iceland 1965-1974 1965-71 Sea Ice 1970 Poisonous ash (Hekla eruption) 1972 Grid-breaking storm 1973 Eruption in Heimaey in the vicinity of a settlement 1973 Hurricane 1974 Devastating avalanche 4

5. Natural Hazards in Iceland 1975-1995 1975-1984 Volcanic unrest in NE-Iceland 1976 Earthquake damage 1976-1977 Sea flooding 1980 Hekla eruption (small) 1981 Hurricane 1983 Slush flood 1990 Sea flooding 1991 Hekla eruption (small) 1991 A severe hurricane 1995 Devastating avalanches in January and October 5

6. Natural Hazards in Iceland 1976-2011 1996Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn and a large jökulhlaup 1998Volcanic eruption in Gjálp 2000Two earthquakes of significant size Hekla eruption (small) 2004Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn (small) 2006Floods in South and West Iceland 2008Earthquake causing exstensive damage 2010Volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull 2011Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn 2011Jökulhlaup 6 photo: Þ.M. Pétursson

7. Direct economic loss due to the largest natural catastrophes in Iceland since 1973

8. Fatal accidents in natural catastrophes in Iceland 1901−2009 8

9. Snow avalances, slush flows, landslides, debri flows and rockfall After the two catastrophic snow avalanches in 1995 the previous hazard zoning methodology was totally revised. Among key fetures in the resulting method are: IMO does the hazard zoning The hazard zoning is risk based Individual risk is chosen to by the definative term/unit A level of acceptable risk is defined The methodology is in good agreement with the WMO guidelines for Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Natural Hazards The method can form a basis for the assessment of other natural hazards. 9

10. Risk acceptance decisions 10 Material cost/benefit assessments replacement costs Human loss Excess mortality - risk behavior individual risk - aggregate risk Infrastructure disturbance Local - total the 0.5% GNP-level funds - insurance Short- or long-term Sudden events – slow changes need different acceptance levels

11. Volcanic activity in Katla and Eyjafjallajökull There has allready been made a comprehensive assessment of hazard due to volcanic activity in Katla and Eyjafjallajökull. This work of Gudmundsson et al. (2005) includes: Map showing estimated frequency of supglacier eruptions Maps showing known and likely floodways Maps showing estimated extent of reference floods and arrival times as a results of dynamical modelling Evacuation plans 11

14. Assessment of risk due to volcanic activity for the whole of Iceland The Icelandic government is organizing a long term to assess the risk do to volcanic activity for the whole of Iceland. A plan of a three years initial phase has been layed out and preperation is under way: An appraisal of current knowledge where scenarios for each volcano will also be described for improved preperdness Initial assessment of floods related to volcanic eruptions (jökulhlaup) Initial assessment of explosive eruptions in Iceland Initial assessment of volcanic eruptions that may cause extensive damage to property, i.e. eruption in vicinity of urban areas and international airports in Iceland 14

15. Floods Floods in South and West Iceland in December 2006 brought attention to flood hazard A three year project on mapping of inundated areas was finalized in November 2010 Historical information gathered Mapping of inundated areas Ph.D. thesis of Emmanuel P. Pagneux Floods in the ölfusá basin, Iceland: A geographic contribution to the assessment of flood hazard and management of flood risk This work is considered to be a pilot project in flood hazard assessment The EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) will possibly be implemented in Iceland later this year 15

17. 21.12.2006 Peak discharge VHM64: 1840 m³/s

18. Source and literature WMO (1999) Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Natural Hazards WMO/TD No. 955, 92 p. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction http://www.unisdr.org/ Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives (2004) Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction (2009) http://www.unisdr.org Terminology, new version (2009) http://www.unisdr.org/eng/terminology/terminology-2009-eng.html Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (UN, 2005) http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/hfa Mitchell, J.K. (ed. 1996): The long road to recovery: Community responses to industrial disaster. UN University Press, 307 p. Mitchell, J.K. (ed. 1999): Crucibles of hazard: Mega-cities and disasters in transition. UN University Press, 535 p. 18

19. ÞÓR – Coast Guard Vessel 19

20. THANK YOU 20