1. Ⓒ Olof S. On trade and trade-related questions: some personal reflections CEAS/AES Conference on Regional Trade Agreements 24 June 2011 Keynes College, University of Kent Tassos Haniotis Director - Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

2. 22 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements 1.Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? 2.What could the role of agriculture be in them? 3.What is the impact of trade agreements on the overall economy? 4.Are available analytical tools sufficient?

3. 33 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements

4. 4 Recent trends in commodity prices Source: World Bank. Fertilisers + 163 %Energy + 223 % Agriculture + 50 %

5. 5 Price developments in the EU food chain Source: European Commission – DG Economic and Financial Affairs, based on Eurostat data FOOD PRICE CRISIS PRODUCER LAG RETAIL LAGDEJA VU? Agricultural commodity prices Overall inflation (HICP) Food producer prices Food consumer prices

6. 6 EU agricultural prices Source: Eurostat

7. 77 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements

8. 8 Where does trade fit in all this? Tariffs and market access exogenous strong influence on price effects unpredictable short-term price swings predictable long-term tariff adjustments Export competition diminishing role of price support increasing role of environmental support uncertain role of indirect measures irrelevance of export subsidies unpredictability of export bans relevance of net-trade position Domestic support

9. 99 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements

10. 10 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements

11. 11 Four basic questions on trade-related agreements 1.Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? 2.What is the role of agriculture in them? 3.What is the impact of trade agreements on the economy? 4.Are available analytical tools sufficient? Conclusion: paradigm shift needed, but nowhere in sight

12. 12 Thank you