1. Maximizing Classifier Utility when Training Data is Costly Gary M. Weiss Ye Tian Fordham University

2. August 20, 2006 2UBDM 2006 Workshop Outline Introduction Introduction Motivation, cost model Motivation, cost model Experimental Methodology Experimental Methodology Results Results Adult data set Adult data set Progressive Sampling Progressive Sampling Related Work Related Work Future Work/Conclusion Future Work/Conclusion

3. August 20, 2006 3UBDM 2006 Workshop Motivation Utility-Based Data Mining Utility-Based Data Mining Concerned with utility of overall data mining process Concerned with utility of overall data mining process A key cost is the cost of training data A key cost is the cost of training data These costs often ignored (except for active learning) These costs often ignored (except for active learning) First ones to analyze the impact of a very simple cost model First ones to analyze the impact of a very simple cost model In doing so we fill a hole in existing research In doing so we fill a hole in existing research Our cost model Our cost model A fixed cost for acquiring labeled training examples A fixed cost for acquiring labeled training examples No separate cost for class labels, missing features, etc. No separate cost for class labels, missing features, etc. Turney 1 called this the “cost of cases” Turney 1 called this the “cost of cases” No control over which training examples chosen No control over which training examples chosen No active learning No active learning

4. August 20, 2006 4UBDM 2006 Workshop Motivation (cont.) Efficient progressive sampling 2 Efficient progressive sampling 2 Determines “optimal” training set size Determines “optimal” training set size Optimal is where the learning curve reaches a plateau Optimal is where the learning curve reaches a plateau Assumes data acquisition costs are essentially zero Assumes data acquisition costs are essentially zero What if the acquisition costs are significant? What if the acquisition costs are significant?

5. August 20, 2006 5UBDM 2006 Workshop Motivating Examples Predicting customer behavior/buying potential Predicting customer behavior/buying potential Training data from D&B and Ziff-Davis Training data from D&B and Ziff-Davis These and other “information vendors” make money by selling information These and other “information vendors” make money by selling information Poker playing Poker playing Learn about an opponent by playing him Learn about an opponent by playing him

6. August 20, 2006 6UBDM 2006 Workshop Outline Introduction Introduction Motivation, cost model Motivation, cost model Experimental Methodology Experimental Methodology Results Results Adult data set Adult data set Progressive Sampling Progressive Sampling Related Work Related Work Future Work/Conclusion Future Work/Conclusion

7. August 20, 2006 7UBDM 2006 Workshop Experiments Use C4.5 to determine relationship between accuracy and training set size Use C4.5 to determine relationship between accuracy and training set size 20 runs used to increase reliability of results 20 runs used to increase reliability of results Random sampling to reduce training set size Random sampling to reduce training set size For this talk we focus on adult data set For this talk we focus on adult data set ~ 21,000 examples ~ 21,000 examples We utilize a predetermined sampling schedule We utilize a predetermined sampling schedule CPU times recorded, mainly for future work CPU times recorded, mainly for future work

8. August 20, 2006 8UBDM 2006 Workshop Measuring Total Utility Total cost = Data Cost + Error Cost Total cost = Data Cost + Error Cost = n∙C tr + e ∙|S| ∙C err = n∙C tr + e ∙|S| ∙C err n = number training examples e = error rate |S| = number examples in score set C tr = cost of a training example C err = cost of an error Will know n and e for any experiment Will know n and e for any experiment With domain knowledge can estimate C tr, C err, |S| With domain knowledge can estimate C tr, C err, |S| But we don’t have this knowledge But we don’t have this knowledge Treat C tr and C err as parameters and vary them Treat C tr and C err as parameters and vary them Assume |S| = 100 with no loss of generality Assume |S| = 100 with no loss of generality If |S| is 100,000 then look at results for C err /1,000 If |S| is 100,000 then look at results for C err /1,000

9. August 20, 2006 9UBDM 2006 Workshop Measuring Total Utility (cont.) Now only look at cost ratio, C tr :C err Now only look at cost ratio, C tr :C err Typical values evaluated: 1:1, 1:1000, etc. Typical values evaluated: 1:1, 1:1000, etc. Relative cost ratio is C err /C tr Relative cost ratio is C err /C tr Example Example If cost ratio is 1:1000 then even trade-off if buying 1000 training examples eliminates 1 error If cost ratio is 1:1000 then even trade-off if buying 1000 training examples eliminates 1 error Alternatively: buying 1000 examples is worth a 1% reduction in error rate (then can ignore |S| = 100) Alternatively: buying 1000 examples is worth a 1% reduction in error rate (then can ignore |S| = 100)

10. August 20, 2006 10UBDM 2006 Workshop Outline Introduction Introduction Motivation, cost model Motivation, cost model Experimental Methodology Experimental Methodology Results Results Adult data set Adult data set Progressive Sampling Progressive Sampling Related Work Related Work Future Work/Conclusion Future Work/Conclusion

11. August 20, 2006 11UBDM 2006 Workshop Learning Curve

12. August 20, 2006 12UBDM 2006 Workshop Utility Curves

13. August 20, 2006 13UBDM 2006 Workshop Utility Curves (Normalized Cost)

14. August 20, 2006 14UBDM 2006 Workshop Optimal Training Set Size Curve

15. August 20, 2006 15UBDM 2006 Workshop Value of Optimal Curve Even without specific cost information, this chart could be useful for a practitioner Even without specific cost information, this chart could be useful for a practitioner Can put bounds on appropriate training set size Can put bounds on appropriate training set size Analogous to Drummond and Holte’s cost curves 3 Analogous to Drummond and Holte’s cost curves 3 They looked at cost ratio of false positives and negatives They looked at cost ratio of false positives and negatives We look at cost ratio of errors vs. cost of data We look at cost ratio of errors vs. cost of data Both types of curves allows the practitioner to understand the impact of the various costs Both types of curves allows the practitioner to understand the impact of the various costs

16. August 20, 2006 16UBDM 2006 Workshop Idealized learning curve

17. August 20, 2006 17UBDM 2006 Workshop Outline Introduction Introduction Motivation, cost model Motivation, cost model Experimental Methodology Experimental Methodology Results Results Adult data set Adult data set Progressive Sampling Progressive Sampling Related Work Related Work Future Work/Conclusion Future Work/Conclusion

18. August 20, 2006 18UBDM 2006 Workshop Progressive Sampling We want to find the optimal training set size We want to find the optimal training set size Need to determine when to stop acquiring data before acquiring all of it! Need to determine when to stop acquiring data before acquiring all of it! Strategy: use a progressive sampling strategy Strategy: use a progressive sampling strategy Key issues: Key issues: When do we stop? When do we stop? What sampling schedule should we use? What sampling schedule should we use?

19. August 20, 2006 19UBDM 2006 Workshop Our Progressive Sampling Strategy We stop after first increase in total cost We stop after first increase in total cost Results therefore never optimal, but near-optimal if learning curve is non-decreasing Results therefore never optimal, but near-optimal if learning curve is non-decreasing We evaluate 2 simple sampling schedules We evaluate 2 simple sampling schedules S1: 10, 50, 100, 500, 1000, 2000, …, 9000, 10,000, 12,000, 14,000, … S1: 10, 50, 100, 500, 1000, 2000, …, 9000, 10,000, 12,000, 14,000, … S2: 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, … S2: 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, … S2 & S1 are similar given modest sized data sets S2 & S1 are similar given modest sized data sets Could use an adaptive strategy Could use an adaptive strategy

20. August 20, 2006 20UBDM 2006 Workshop Adult Data Set: S1 vs. Straw Man

21. August 20, 2006 21UBDM 2006 Workshop Progressive Sampling Conclusions We can use progressive sampling to determine a near optimal training set size We can use progressive sampling to determine a near optimal training set size Effectiveness mainly based on how well behaved the learning curve is (i.e., non-decreasing) Effectiveness mainly based on how well behaved the learning curve is (i.e., non-decreasing) Sampling schedule/batch size is also important Sampling schedule/batch size is also important Finer granularity requires more CPU time Finer granularity requires more CPU time But if data costly, CPU time most likely less expensive But if data costly, CPU time most likely less expensive In our experiments, cumulative CPU time < 1 minute In our experiments, cumulative CPU time < 1 minute

22. August 20, 2006 22UBDM 2006 Workshop Related Work Efficient progressive sampling 2 Efficient progressive sampling 2 It tries to efficiently find the asymptote It tries to efficiently find the asymptote That work has a data cost of ε That work has a data cost of ε Stop only when added data has no benefit Stop only when added data has no benefit Active Learning Active Learning Similar in that data cost is factored in but setting different Similar in that data cost is factored in but setting different User has control over which examples are selected or features measured User has control over which examples are selected or features measured Does not address simple “cost of cases” scenario Does not address simple “cost of cases” scenario Find best class distribution when training data costly 4 Find best class distribution when training data costly 4 Assumes training set size limited but size pre-specified Assumes training set size limited but size pre-specified Finds the best class distribution to maximize performance Finds the best class distribution to maximize performance

23. August 20, 2006 23UBDM 2006 Workshop Limitations/Future Work Improvements: Improvements: Bigger data sets where learning curve plateaus Bigger data sets where learning curve plateaus More sophisticated sampling schemes More sophisticated sampling schemes Incorporate cost-sensitive learning (cost FP ≠ FN) Incorporate cost-sensitive learning (cost FP ≠ FN) Generate better behaved learning curves Generate better behaved learning curves Include CPU time in utility metric Include CPU time in utility metric Analyze other cost models Analyze other cost models Study the learning curves Study the learning curves Real world motivating examples Real world motivating examples Perhaps with cost information Perhaps with cost information

24. August 20, 2006 24UBDM 2006 Workshop Conclusion We analyze impact of training data cost on classification process We analyze impact of training data cost on classification process Introduce new ways of visualizing the impact of data cost Introduce new ways of visualizing the impact of data cost Utility curves Utility curves Optimal training set size curves Optimal training set size curves Show that we can use progressive sampling to help learn a near-optimal classifier Show that we can use progressive sampling to help learn a near-optimal classifier

25. August 20, 2006 25UBDM 2006 Workshop We Want Feedback We are continuing this work We are continuing this work Clearly many minor enhancements possible Clearly many minor enhancements possible Feel free to suggest some more Feel free to suggest some more Any major new directions/extensions? Any major new directions/extensions? What if anything is most interesting? What if anything is most interesting? Any really good motivating examples that you are familiar with Any really good motivating examples that you are familiar with

26. August 20, 2006 26UBDM 2006 Workshop Questions? If I have run out of time, please find me during the break!! If I have run out of time, please find me during the break!!

27. August 20, 2006 27UBDM 2006 Workshop References 1. P. Turney (2000). Types of cost in inductive concept learning. Workshop on Cost-Sensitive Learning at the 17 th International Conference on Machine Learning. 2. F. Provost, D. Jensen & T. Oates (1999). Proceedings of the 5 th International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. 3. C. Drummond & R. Holte (2000). Explicitly Representing Expected Cost: An Alternative to ROC Representation. Proceedings of the 6 th ACM SIGKDD International Conference of Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 198-207. 4. G. Weiss & F. Provost (2003). Learning when Training Data are Costly: The Effect of Class Distribution on Tree Induction, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 19:315-354.

28. August 20, 2006 28UBDM 2006 Workshop Learning Curves for Large Data Sets

29. August 20, 2006 29UBDM 2006 Workshop Optimal Curves for Large Data Sets

30. August 20, 2006 30UBDM 2006 Workshop Learning Curves for Small Data Sets

31. August 20, 2006 31UBDM 2006 Workshop Optimal Curves for Small Data Sets

32. August 20, 2006 32UBDM 2006 Workshop Results for Adult Data Set

33. August 20, 2006 33UBDM 2006 Workshop Optimal vs. S1 for Large Data Sets