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Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo) Presented by Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International.

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Presentation on theme: "Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo) Presented by Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International."— Presentation transcript:

1 Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo) Presented by Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo) Sheraton Towers, Singapore 31 October 2007 Rubber Markets 2007 Domestic Prices Influencing the Export Sector

2 2 The scenario of Thailands rubber production due to external factors in todays context (what could possibly happen at present?) Introduction

3 3 Northern Part 2 Chiang Mai 3 Chiang Rai 12 Phitsanulok Northeastern Part 21 Nong Khai 20 Udon Thani 41 Burirum Central Part 29 Kanchana Buri 45 Ratcha Buri Eastern Part 58 Rayong 59 Chantha Buri Southern Part (East Coast) 65 Surat Thani 69 Nakhornsi Thammarat 73 Songkhla Southern Part (West Coast) 67 Krabi 70 Trang The Map of Thailand with Locations of Rubber Plantation

4 4 Year Planted Area ('000 ha) Production (tons) Yield (kg/ha/yr) MatureImmatureTotal 20001,523,899463,3311,987,2302,377, ,523,407466,8671,990,2742,561, ,553,214450,4622,003,6762,631, ,601,353416,8542,018,2072,860, ,656,686417,2442,073,9303,005, ,691,588488,1292,179,7172,974, Table 1. Planted area, production of natural rubber in Thailand, 2000 – 2005 Source: 4th ITRC Stat. Committee

5 5 Introduction (cont.) Earnings of natural rubber accounted for billion baht (US$ 10.2 billion) in 2006 Value creation of agricultural products is one of conceptual development framework for the 10th National Economic and Social Development Plan (10th NESDP: )

6 6 National Policy on Natural Rubber Recognizing the importance of the rubber products industry as a one of potential industry and support the development of rubber products industry in five areas as follows:- Natural rubber becomes one of the most important cash crops of Thailand Continuingly increase in supply and demand for world natural rubber in response to expanding demand for worlds transportation and rising oil prices

7 7 National Policy on Natural Rubber (cont.) Constructing the well - established and strong rubber products industry and business and aiming for the Asias largest rubber producer by giving more emphasis on strengthening of technology, especially by providing incentives fro import of new and more efficient machinery and technology, transfer of technology to Thai personnel and establishment of R&D programs Encouraging and providing budget for R&D in productivity from upstream to downstream to the universities and research institutes Speeding up technology licensing and transfer from aboard

8 8 National Strategic Development of Rubber Products Industry and Business for Medium and Long - Term 1st: Increasing Sufficient Quality Supply of Natural Rubber Raw Materials Productivity improvement of raw materials Creating pioneer farming zones to maximize productivity and efficient supply to the rubber industry Transferring necessary agricultural knowledge and technology to rubber smallholders, and Providing suitable agricultural inputs, and managing supply of raw materials in sufficient quantities to meet industrial demand

9 9 2nd: Development of Science and Technology Supporting research on modifying and improving existing technology in SMEs Supporting knowledge transfer to the private sector to create skilled knowledge Promoting public and private latex Bio – tech R&D investment Building strong research community Enhancing the capacity of private and public research institutes and university to support SMEs Creating intellectual property with value in the commercial market

10 10 3rd: Competitiveness and Capacity Enhancement Enhancing efficiency in existing agencies concerned to coordinate networks Adjusting production processes and methods to make them more efficient and higher quality Enhancing efficiency in output distribution by improving marketing system at all levels and promoting e – commerce Developing product quality standard systems to meet international standards Promoting sustainable rubber production process Supporting establishment of The Rubber Board of Thailand

11 11 4th: Establishment of Supportive Infrastructure Reviewing and revising laws and regulations, which are barriers to the private sector for stimulating the upgrading of their production technology. Promoting and stimulating demand for made-in-Thailand rubber products by government procurement agencies and so on Accelerating logistics system development master plan Establishing rubber products standards and test centers Promoting the use of regional economic and technical cooperation bodies to expand rubber markets Sources: NESDB, Thailand and IRCo, September 2007

12 12 Table 2. Natural Rubber Production, Exports, Domestic Consumption, Stocks, and Imports of Thailand, Year Production Exports Domestic Consumption StocksImports '000 tons % (+/-) '000 tons % (+/-) '000 tons % (+/-) '000 tons % (+/-) '000 tons % (+/-) 19961,970-1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Average Annual Growth Source: RRIT, Thailand

13 13 Table 3. Natural Rubber Production of Thailand by Types, YearRSS STR Conc. Latex * CrepeOthersTotal 19991, , , , , , , ,2371, , ,2831, , ,0281, , ,0351, ,137 Proportion (%) Source: RRIT, Thailand Unit: '000 tons

14 14 Table 4. Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand by Types, YearRSS STR Conc. Latex * OthersTotal 19961, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,772 Proportion (%) Source: RRIT, Thailand Note: * Dry Rubber Content Unit: '000 tons

15 15 Table 5. Exports of RSS of Thailand by Grades, Year RSS's Grades Total 1X , , , , , , , , Proportion (%) Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

16 16 Table 6. Exports of TSR of Thailand by Grades, Year STR Un-specified Block Total XL5L51020CV , ,069 Proportion (%) Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

17 17 Table 7. Exports of Other Types of Natural Rubber of Thailand, Year Air Dried Sheet CrepeSkimUSSOthersTotal Proportion (%) Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

18 18 Table 8. Imports of Thai Natural Rubber by Countries, YearChina JapanU.S.Malaysia S.Kore a EUOthersTotal , , , , , , , , , , ,772 Proportion (%) Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

19 19 Table 9. Exports of Thai Natural Rubber by Ports/Customs Houses, Year PortsCustoms Houses OthersTotal BKKSongkhla Laem- chabang Phuket Chiang Saen Padang Besar SadaoBetong , , , , , , , , , , , ,772 Proportion (%) Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

20 20 Table 10. Value of Natural Rubber Exports of Thailand by Types, YearRSSSTR Conc. Latex OthersTotal ,65811,6397, , ,99314,6157, , ,93115,0968, , ,76012,5076, , ,13020,8857, , ,58522,27612, , ,81826,82417, , ,26545,26426, , ,05053,40334, , ,90263,93736, , ,62083,87052, ,361 Proportion (%) Unit: Million Baht Source: RRIT, Thailand

21 21 Table 11. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand by Types, Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand YearSTR Conc. Latex RSSADSOthersCrepeTotal Proportion (%)

22 22 Table 12. Natural Rubber Consumption of Thailand by Types of Products, Types of Products Tires Elastic Glove Tire and Tube for motorcycles Rubber band Canvas shoes & Foam Candle Others Shoe Layer Glue Belt Accessories part for motor vehicle Hose Scientific instruments Foam Products Retreading Ballon0010 Total Unit: '000 tons Source: RRIT, Thailand

23 23 Table 13. Export Value of Natural Rubber Products of Thailand, Types of Products Tire & Tube for Motorcars25,72234,57543,583 Glove23,91626,07827,288 Others7,32410,47411,293 Compound Rubber4,4734,20312,927 Elastic4,0964,6306,866 Gasket / Seal2,1132,3242,743 Hose3,3853,4964,060 Rubber Band1,8411,9122,468 Piping and Tubing Tires1,5421,6611,901 Condom1,4931,8441,796 Belts1,0001,2561,057 Floor Tiles Apparel Clothing Nipple Vulcanised Rubber Rubber Eraser Total78,62894,351117,577 Unit: Million Baht Source: RRIT, Thailand

24 24 Natural Rubber Prices in Thailand, 1996 – 2007 The Fall: 1996 – 2001 The global economic slowdown Less bargaining power of NR producing countries despite firm global economy in some years Low prices of synthetic rubber Asian economic crisis in mid-1997 The overhang of Thai government stockpile The demise of INRO in 1999

25 25 The Rise: 2002 – 2007 The global economy has rebounded steadily to the present Higher demand for rubber from China, India, and the emerging economies Higher prices of synthetic rubber due to rising oil prices Erratic weather and more natural disasters due to the global climate change Establishment of Tripartite rubber cooperation among Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia (ITRC and IRCo)

26 26 Table 13. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, * Year Conc. LatexUSS3STR20 RSS3 BahtUS Cents %(+/-)%(+/-) BahtUS Cents % ( + / -) BahtUS Cents % ( + / -) BahtUS Cents % ( + / -) * % Change ( ) Source: RRIT, Thailand Note: * * Average of Jan - Sep 2007

27 27 Figure 1. Natural Rubber Prices of Thailand, * Note: * Average of Jan - Sep 2007

28 28 Table 14. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures Markets Year Tokyo Singapore Yen/kg% (+/-)US$/kg% (+/-) * % Change ( ) Source: RRIT, Thailand Note: * * Average of Jan - Sep 2007

29 29 Figure 2. Tokyo and Singapore Rubber Futures Markets Note: * Average of Jan - Sep 2007

30 30 The Future: ?????

31 31 Conclusion The balance of supply and demand for natural and synthetic rubber will lead to a sustainable development of the rubber industry, and the physical rubber market should be strengthened in order to lower rubber prices volatility.

32 32 Thank you for your attention


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