The business cycle “A wavelike movement in the overall level of business activity”
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The business cycle “A wavelike movement in the overall level of business activity”
The Business Cycle þThe term business cycle is used to describe observed fluctuations in key macroeconomic measures such as real GDP, personal income, profits, or employment. þA full cycle consists of an expansion and a contraction (or recession). þBusiness cycles are recurring phenomena; however, they are irregularly recurring. Time Real GDP
The Burns and Mitchell (NBER) definition 1 Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in aggregate economic activity.... [A] cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revival which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of change is recurrent but not periodic; in duration cycles vary from one year to 10 to 12 years. 1 Burns, A. and Mitchell, W. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of economic Research, 1947, p. 3
1 Expansion was at 64 months through August, 1996. The NBER could date the peak retroactively, however. 2 phases of the 1954-58 cycle Real GDP Year/Month May ‘54 Aug. ‘57 Apr. ‘58 expansion contraction Trough Peak Trend line
Dating business cycles To date business cycle peaks and troughs, economists at the NBER look for well-defined turning points in key “coincident” indicators such as industrial production or nonfarm payrolls
A “full” business cycle consists of two “half-cycles”—an expansion is one half-cycle and the (chronologically) adjacent contraction is the other half cycle. The table on the following slide gives the record of cycles in the U.S. since 1919, as dated by the NBER
TroughPeakTrough Expansion in Months Contraction in Months Mar 1919Jan 1920July 19211018 July 1921May 1923July 19242214 July 1924Oct 1926Nov 19272713 Nov 1927Aug 1929Mar 19332143 Mar 1933May 1937June 19385013 June 1938Feb 1945Oct 1945808 Oct 1945Nov 1948Oct 19493711 Oct 1949July 1952May 19544510 May 1954Aug 1957Apr 1958398 Apr 1958Apr 1960Feb 19612410 Feb 1961Dec 1969Nov 197010611 Nov 1970Nov 1973Mar 19753616 Mar 1975Jan 1980July 1980586 July 1980July 1981Dec 19821217 Dec 1982July 1990Apr 1991889 Apr 1991March 2001Nov 20011208 Nov 2001December 2007June 20098318
Statistic Depression (1929.4 to 1933.1) Six Severe Recessions 1 Four Mild Recessions 2 Current Recession 2007.4 - Ave. Duration (Months) 43121027 % Decline Real GDP -32.6-3.3-1.7- 3.66 % Decline Industrial Production -53.4-13.1-7.8 -14.81 % Decline Nonfarm Employment -31.6-3.8-1.7-5.37 Duration and Depth of Selected Business Cycles Contractions Source: Zarnowitz (1985), and Economagic.com 1 The dates are 1923.2 to 1924.3; 1948.4 to 1949.4; 1953.3 to 1954.2; 1957.3 to 1958.2; 1973.4 to 1975.1; and 1981.3 to 1982.2. 2 The dates are 1926.4 to 1927.4; 1960.2 to 1961.1; 1969.4 to 1970.4; and 1980.1 to 1980.3
Performance of GDP Components, 2007-IV to 2008-III. Component Percent Change GDP-3.66 Consumer Durables -1.86 Nonresidential Fixed Investment -12.24 Residential Investment -19.03 Government Expenditure 4.05 Exports -34.4 Imports-12.59 Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Economic Analysis
Economic Activity Stage IStage IIStage III Trough Peak 1 year 2 years The “typical” business cycle
Component Percent Change During Recession 1 Percent Change First Year Percent Change Second Year Consumer Durables -8.1515.965.50 Consumer Nondurables -5.503.813.55 Consumer Services 1.414.314.59 Business Fixed Investment -8.044.109.17 Percent Change in Components of GDP Over the Business Cycle 1 Based on the 1957-58, 1960-61, 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 recessions. Source: Oyen (1991).
Component Percent Change During Recession 1 Percent Change First Year Percent Change Second Year Residential Construction -16.3026.035.47 Inventories-153.85258.91-38.35 Federal purchases 2 1.99-3.001.29 State & Local Purchases 2 2.644.252.52 Percent Change in Components of GDP Over the Business Cycle (Part 2) 1 Based on the 1957-58, 1960-61, 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 recessions. 2 Excludes transfer payments Source: Oyen (1991).
Aggregate Supply Aggregate supply: The relationship between the quantity of real GDP supplied and the price level when all other influences on production plans remain the same.
Aggregate Supply Basics The quantity of real GDP supplied (Y) depends on: The quantity of labor employed The quantities of capital (including human capital) and the technologies they embody The quantities of land and natural resources used The amount of entrepreneurial talent available.
Change in the quantity of real GDP (Y) supplied Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 Potential GDP 10.0 110 AS As price level increase, AS increases As price level decreases, AS decreases GDP Deflator is the “broad” price index
These influences include: The money wage rate The money prices of other resources As we move along AS, all other influences on productions plans remain constant (aside from the price level).
The Labor Market Let L S denote the supply of labor, which is presumed to be a positive function of the real wage, where the real wage is equal to the nominal wage divided by the price level (w/p). L D denote the demand for labor, which is presumed to be a negative (or inverse) function of the real wage (w/p). As the real wage increases, the opportunity cost of leisure rises as well. Hence, people substitute work for leisure.
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5) = (3) (4) Number of Workers Output (Units) Marginal Output (Units) Price per Unit ($) Value of Marginal Output ($) 0---0$0.25$0.00 170 $0.2517.50 213565$0.2516.25 318752$0.2513.00 422236$0.259.00 523816$0.254.00 Plato’s Vineyard
0 Plato’s L D Number of workers w/p $17.50 $15.25 12 I couldn’t afford to pay more than $16.25 for the second worker Diminishing Returns
Real Hourly Wage = w/p Hours Worked/Year 150 billion = Full Employment 0 Excess Demand for Labor LDLD LSLS 10 15 $20 E B A J H The Labor Market Excess Supply for Labor Real Wage = w/p
Real GDP ($ Trillions) Hours Worked/Year (billions) 0 150 10 Potential GDP is $10 Trillion
Potential GDP Corresponds to Labor Market Equilibrium Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 Potential GDP 10.0 Note that potential GDP does not change when the price level changes $10 trillion of real GDP can be produced when the economy is at full employment
Why is AS upward-sloping? Holding the nominal wage (w) constant, the real wage (w/p) decreases when the price level increases. This induces firms to hire more workers. Real GDP expands
Changes of Aggregate Supply Aggregate supply can change (shift) due to A change in the money wage A change in the money prices of other productive resources A change in potential GDP
Shifts of AS Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 Potential GDP 10.0 110 AS 1 AS 0 AS 1 to AS 0 Falling wages or benefits costs. Falling prices of other inputs (e.g., diesel fuel, rubber, copper, wood).
Potential GDP can change too Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 Potential GDP 10.011.0 Potential GDP can rise as a result of Growth of the labor force Capital accumulation including human capital Improved technology
The aggregate demand (AD) curve Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 AD The AD curve shows what spending units plan to spend at various price levels, holding all other influences on buying plans constant.
Why is the AD curve downward-sloping? Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 AD 120 110 Y1Y1 Y2Y2 A B Change in the real interest rate Change in the relative prices of exports and imports Change in the buying power of money
Changes (shifts) of (AD) curve Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 AD 0 AD 1 AD 2 AD 0 to AD 1 is an increase in AD AD 0 to AD 2 is a decrease in AD
What could cause AD to shift? AD will increase if: Expected future income, profits, or inflation increase. Government units or the Federal Reserve take steps to stimulate planned spending. The exchange rate falls or the global economy expands
The Aggregate demand (AD Multiplier) Price level (GDP deflator) Real GDP (trillions of 1996 dollars) 0 AD 1 AD 0 AD 0 + I 110 Increase in I Induced increase in C 10.010.411.0 Increase in investment induces increase in C via the effect on income
Price Level Real GDP 110 Y* AD AS e AD’ e’ 117 Y’
The Aggregate Demand (AD) Fluctuations A business cycle might be explained strictly on the basis of fluctuations of AD. The next 2 slides show how investment fluctuations can produce a business cycle.
10.0 9.510.5 Potential GDP AD 1 AD 2 AD 0 AS Price level Real GDP 00 105 115 A B C C AD 2 10.59.5 D E 115 105 AD 3 AD 4 Expansion Contraction An aggregate demand (AD) cycle
Year Real GDP A B C D E Peak Trough Full employment 10.5 10.0 9.5 1 234 5
Stagflation is a combination of recession (falling real GDP) and inflation. Now we will show how stagflation could be produced by a supply shock