1. Sun – Solar System Connections Foundation Roadmap Status Report March 15 2005 J. Todd Hoeksema & Team

2. SSSC Foundation Roadmap The bottom line Our society can no longer function efficiently without space weather understanding Human beings can not work safely and effectively outside low Earth orbit without space weather forecasts Predictive space weather capability requires basic knowledge we do not have

3. Earth-Space Activities... disrupted by solar and geomagnetic events Satellite operations Navigation Space Shuttle and Space Station activities High-altitude polar flights Electric power distribution Long-line telephone communication HF radio communication Pipeline operations Geophysical exploration Satellite reliability Going to Moon or Mars A few Space Weather Effects

4. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Space Weather Effects

5. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Radiation Effects Needs to be developed

6. Oct/Nov 2003 Superstorms Disturbed Upper Atmosphere Space Storms at the Outer Planets Solar System Blast Wave Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss Dangerous Radiation Space Storms at Earth LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 2003 SUPERSTORMS: A fleet of earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft with distinctly different missions joined together in late October 2003 as one “great observatory” to provide a first-ever view of a space weather front moving through the solar system from its source on the sun’s surface to space storms triggered at Earth, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn and finally to its encounter with the outer boundary of the heliosphere many months later. This front was created by a series of strong solar eruptive events from three active regions on the Sun. Surprises lie in the inhomogeneity of the front propagation and of the energetic solar particles even at locations in close proximity; thus highlighting the importance of global propagation, energization and expansion in local space weather conditions and the difficulties in predicting such conditions for future explorers. The space weather front elicited different responses from planets protected with a magnetosphere and those without protection. At Mars,in the absence of a strong global magnetic field, high solar wind dynamic pressure pushed in the solar wind - ionosphere boundary to low altitudes allowing…

7. SSSC FRM Halloween 2003

8. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Enabling Exploration Spacecraft Design Requirements Space Operations information Solar System – wide space weather prediction

9. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Space Weather Prediction

10. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Important Science Reconnection Particle Acceleration Magnetic Dynamo Global Change

11. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Enabling Exploration Spacecraft Design Requirements Space Operations information Solar System – wide space weather prediction

12. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Exciting Science & Exploration Visit the solar corona Probe the interstellar medium Investigate planetary habitability

13. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Science in the Sweet Spot Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent

14. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Objectives SSSC Science & Exploration Objective F: Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium. SSSC Science & Exploration Objective H: Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment. SSSC Science & Exploration Objective J: Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey Maximize the productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

15. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction SSSC Science & Exploration Objective F Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium. F.1 Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms. F.2 Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles F.3 Understand How Nonlinear Interactions Transfer Energy and Momentum Within Planetary Upper Atmospheres. F.4 Determine how solar and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary. F.5 Understand the role of cross-scale coupling in creating plasma boundaries and the significance of boundaries in controlling physical processes.

16. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Understanding the Nature of our Home in Space SSSC Science & Exploration Objective H Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment. H.1 Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of solar activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment H.2 Determine changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects H.3 Understanding the role of the Sun as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, and in particular the role of solar variability in driving change. H.4 Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability

17. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey SSSC Science & Exploration Objective J Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey Maximize the productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space. J.1 Characterize the variability, extremes, and boundary conditions of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers. J.2 Develop the capability to predict the origin and onset of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather events.. J.3 Develop the capability to predict the propagation and evolution of solar disturbances (including shocks, and the acceleration and transport of energetic particles from solar, interplanetary, and galactic sources) to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers. J.4 Understand and characterize the space weather effects on and within planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities.

18. SSSC Foundation Roadmap A New Science

19. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Predictive Requirements Geo- & planetary space storms X-rays/EUV events Energetic particle events CME’s & heliospheric storms Cosmic ray modulation Irradiance variations

20. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Priorities & Implementation NOT YET COMPLETED

21. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Discovery Schedule

22. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Strategic Elements Current thinking: –Implement the program currently underway –Use strategic lines to address key problems –Emphasize need for the Explorer & LCAS programs –Evolve the SSSC Great Observatory –Consider new initiatives for new objectives –Develop Analysis, Modeling & Forecast Tools –Focus Technology development –Maintain Human Resources

23. SSSC - Exploration Exploration encompasses both new locations and new understanding Scientific and Technical progress go hand in hand SSSC already provides knowledge essential for safe and productive “Exploration” SSSC already provides transformational scientific knowledge of the universe

24. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Our Great Observatory Missions in the extended operations become something new - part of a “Great Observatory” that is more than the sum of its parts The widely distributed fleet of SSSC spacecraft, coupled with data analysis and modeling, provide a remarkable view of solar system events The SSSC great observatory is constantly being renewed, upgraded, and refocused The great observatory addresses all three SSSC objectives

25. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Explorers, STP, LWS The RM Team has only begun to discuss implementation. Current SSSC programs will certainly be elements of the continued program. EXPLORER’s are crucial to SSSC advance; they augment the strategic lines. Competitive selection of the most exciting current science. Provides decision points for pathways. STP’s address strategic objectives that absolutely require a larger investment to successfully address fundamental questions required for progress in broader areas. LWS addresses questions of direct relevance to life and society. LWS missions focus on understanding the complex systems, building on STP results. LWS missions may lead to operational missions.

26. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Infrastructure Productivity depends on a healthy science community infrastructure SSSC relies on SR&T, GI, Theory, LWS TRT to analyze data and lead future developments Computing, Modeling, Assimilation, and Visualization Combining data from multiple sources – Virtual Observatories Interpretation of sparse measurements Collaboration with other agencies

27. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Low Cost Access to Space Some exciting SSSC science can only be done in the LCAS program New opportunities can be realized soon Instrument development, reduction of program risk are important benefits Rapid response to evolving needs Training of future observers, PI’s, engineers

28. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Partnerships Multiple partnerships exist at various levels International Living With a Star (ILWS) Exploration missions and support of VSE Explorers, New Millennium, Technology Planetary missions – Mars, planets, comets, moons, etc. Astrophysics – stars, ISM, planetary systems Climate variability, weather effects, modeling, visualization Europe, Canada, Japan, Russia DOE, DOD, NOAA, NSF

29. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Science Achievements Helioseismology – Solar Far Side, Sunspots, Dynamo Coronal Loop Dynamics CME Origin, Evolution and Propagation Flare energy release Solar Particle Acceleration Particle Acceleration in the Heliosphere Heliospheric Boundary Encounters Interstellar Particle Observations Magnetic Reconnection Particle Acceleration in the Magnetosphere Parallel Electric Fields in the Auroral Region ENA Imaging of trapped particles – Earth & Saturn

30. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Technology Enabling high delta-V propulsion Enabling the development of compact low-cost spacecraft Enabling the visualization, analysis and modeling of solar system plasmas Enabling the development of the next generation of SSSC instrumentation Enabling the return of large data sets from throughout the solar system

31. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Education & Public Outreach Many successful efforts currently underway Evolving to more uniform NASA format SSSC effort emphasizes unique content Coordinate formal and informal programs Integrate SESD content into curriculum Need more centralized outreach to educational system

32. SSSC Foundation Roadmap External Factors Implementation has been left for future meetings, but important external factors that limit our programs are already apparent. Access to affordable launch capability of appropriate size Public Trust and Risk Tolerance at NASA National Security & Working with International Partners

33. SSSC Foundation Roadmap The bottom line Our society can no longer function efficiently without space weather understanding Human beings can not work safely and effectively outside low Earth orbit without space weather forecasts Predictive space weather capability requires basic knowledge we do not have

34. SSSC – Backup Charts Backup Charts

35. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Information Important documents for the RM effort are available at several web sites. http://sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/roadmap for general informationhttp://sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/roadmap http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap for working documentshttp://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap

36. Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems. NASA Strategic Objective #15

37. Sun – Solar System Connections Science & Exploration Objectives Understand the fundamental physical processes important in space – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium. Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space. Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment. Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems.

38. SSSC Foundation Roadmap Activities Schedule: Roadmap kickoff with SECAS, approach, guidelinesMar. 10-11, 2004 Roadmap plans, schedule reviewed at HQ/OSSApr. 2004 SECAS, legacy RM strategy, charge to committeeJul. 26-27, 04 NRC draft report - update to decadal surveySep, 2004 Solar Sail technology workshopSep. 28-29, 2004 Roadmap team meeting #1Oct. 5-6, 2004 Roadmap activity review at SECASNov. 3-5, 2004 Community-led imaging technology workshopNov. 9-10, 2004 Community-wide legacy roadmap workshop Nov. 16-17, 2004 Roadmap team meeting #2Nov. 18-19, 2004 Roadmap team meeting #3Jan. 19-21, 2005 Roadmap team meeting #4Mar. 17-18, 2005

39. SSSC – Changes from 2002 2003 Understand the Sun, helio- sphere, and planetary environments as a single connected system. Understand the changing flow of energy and matter through-out the Sun, heliosphere, and planetary environments. Explore the fundamental physical processes of space plasma systems. Define the origins and societal impacts of variability in the Sun-Earth connection. 2005 Understand the fundamental physical processes important in space – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium. Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space. Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

40. Enabling Capabilities: Model Data Assimilation Radiation tolerance Solar Sails Solar Nadir Viewing Spacecraft clusters Constellations High Q data compression Upstream solar wind conditions for Earth Roadmap 10 Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system, and the space environ- mental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems. Theoretical Basis: Processes: Gas dynamics; Magnetohydrodynamics: Radiative transfer; Electrodynamics; Plasma physics; Ion-Neutral chemistry; Dusty- plasmas; Multi-fluid magnetodynamics; Fluid-particle hybrid dynamics; Nonlinear Dynamics - Chaos; Methods: Analysis; Modeling; Simulation; Data Assimilation; Parallel computing; Helioseismology and the Solar interior Solar dynamo and active region flaring observations Solar Corona and CME observations Solar wind structures and dynamics The Heliospheric Boundary and Interstellar interaction Missions I: … Missions II: … Missions III: … Focus Areas I Predict geospace weather Anticipate & mitigate geospace effects Understand atmospheric effects and impacts Apply studies to planetary evolution and habitability Focus Areas III Find causes of solar storms Understand particle acceleration in space Determine effects of atmospheric energy input Understand magnetodynamos Focus Areas II Characterize heliospheric and planetary environments Predict heliospheric weather Predict radiation hazards Anticipate planetary effects Measurements: Parameters: Gas; Neutral atoms; Plasma; Energetic particles; Electric Field; Magnetic Field; Sound, EM Waves Methods: Synoptic direct sensing; Remote sensing; Imaging; Spectroscopy; Polarization; Interferometry; Radio Sounding Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space. Understand how our society, its technological systems, and the general habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment. Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets and beyond to the interstellar medium. Upstream Solar wind conditions for inner planets Nonlinear dynamics of energy release by magnetotails The polar heliosphere and cosmic ray propagation TBD Investigation Martian atmospheric Response to space weather Acceleration of the Solar wind Solar energetic particle acceleration and transport Structure of CMEs in the heliosphere Non-Earth-like magnetospheres Atmospheric composition, winds and temperature Ionospheric composition winds and temperature Inner magnetosphere and radiation belt dynamics Solar wind coupling at the magnetospheric boundary Reconnection microphysics control of energy transfer

41. Orbit Insertion, Descent and Landing at Mars Predict the neutral density and wind structures for successful aerocapture, descent and landing Need Empirical models of Mars atmospheric structure Archival and real-time measurements of density, temperature, winds, surface to 250 km Enabling Capabilities & Measurements First principles data- assimilating models for predicting atmospheric structure Supporting Missions Basic Understanding Non-LTE radiative transfer Dust, aerosol evolution and characteristics Wave-wave interactions at all scales Wave- turbulence interactions Surface interactions Parameterizations of turbulence and gravity wave effects in GCMs Wave-mean flow interactions Neutral instabilities Example Flowdown Requirements