The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project:
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Presentation on theme: "The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project:"— Presentation transcript:
1 The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Overview of Study Design, Downscaling Approaches, and Selected ProductsAlan F. HamletMarketa McGuire ElsnerJISAO/CSES Climate Impacts GroupDept. of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Washington
2 Team Acknowledgements: Marketa McGuire ElsnerGuillaume MaugerRob NorheimEric SalathéPablo CarrascoJeff DeemsIngrid TohverSe-Yeun Lee
3 Study Partnerships Funding Partners: WA Department of Ecology (via HB 2860)Bonneville Power AdministrationNorthwest Power and Conservation CouncilOregon Water Resources DepartmentBC Ministry of the EnvironmentCollaborative Partners:Montana Department of Natural ResourcesIdaho Department of Water ResourcesUSBR, Boise Regional OfficeUSACE, Seattle and Portland Districts
4 Study Objectives:Provide comprehensive hydrologic data bases to support water planning at a range of spatial and temporal scales in the Columbia River basin and PNW.Increase spatial resolution of hydrologic models to capture smaller basins relevant to planning.Conduct pilot studies using fine scale hydrologic simulation tools and compare to macro-scale tools that are currently being more widely implemented.Improve range of products and services available, and construct tools and data processing methods to make future updates easier (and less expensive) to produce.
5 Overlap with the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303)
6 A comprehensive climate change impacts assessment for Washington State Human HealthInfrastructureAgriculture/EconomicsWater ResourcesA comprehensive climate change impacts assessment for Washington StateCoastsEnergyIn this impacts assessment, we are evaluating the impacts of climate change on essentially eight sectors, including hydrology and water resources, energy, salmon, forest resources, coasts, agriculture, and human health. The Climate Impacts Group has performed similar assessments in the past; however, this work includes new sectors in which there is little past research. These include coasts, agriculture, health, and infrastructure.We will also be assessing barriers, both legal and institutional, to climate change adaptation.Forest ResourcesSalmonAdaptation6
7 Downscaling Global Climate Change Scenarios for the PNW
8 21st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2009: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest (in review)
9 Overview of Downscaling Approaches: Delta MethodRealistic daily time series and spatial variability.91 years of variability associated with each time frame and emissions scenario.Only incorporates changes in mean T and P.Bias Corrected and Statistically Downscaled GCM Data (BCSD)Incorporates more information from the GCMs, but as a result may also inherit undesirable aspects of GCMs as well.Facilitates trend analysis, examination of potentially altered variability.Hybrid MethodsTakes time series and spatial behavior from the observed record, but incorporates more detailed statistical changes from the GCMs.
10 Typical Applications of Each Downscaling Approach: Delta MethodSensitivity studiesSummary of all GCM projections in one run (limited runs to identify the central tendencyBias Corrected and Statistically Downscaled GCM Data (BCSD)Trend Analysis of Hydrologic VariablesEnsemble uncertainty analysis for 30-year windows at any time in the 21st century (flexible time period of analysis)Hybrid MethodsEnsemble analysis of water systems over 90 years of variability.Flood and low flow analysisAny application that needs very realistic time series behavior, spatial extent of storms, etc.
11 Selected Runs for Two Emissions Scenarios (A1b, B1) GCM RunHybrid Delta 2020s( )HybridDelta 2040sDelta 2080sTransient( )cnrm_cm3_A1Bxecham5_A1Becho_g_A1Bhadcm_A1Bpcm1_A1Bccsm3_A1Bcgcm3.1_t47_A1Bmiroc_3.2_A1Bipsl_cm4_A1Bhadgem1_A1B[ Total of 76 Runs including Six Composite Delta Runs ]
15 Large-Scale Transformation of Watershed Characteristics
16 Historical and Projected 21st Century Flows for the A1b Scenario Yakima River
17 Future Projections of Flood Risk Floods in warmer areas of the basin are expected to increase in magnitude due to the combined effects of warming and increasingly intense winter storms.In other parts of the basin, changes in flooding are smaller, and in strongly snowmelt dominant basins reductions in flood risk are common due to loss of spring snow cover.
26 Reservoir Model Inflows Specific bias adjusted products to support the following reservoir simulation models will be produced under funding for this project:GENESYS (VIC)Snake River basin simulation models (VIC)ColSim model for the Columbia Mainstem (VIC)Additional simulation products supported by HB 1303:USBR Riverware model for the Yakima basin (VIC)Seattle, Everett and Tacoma water supply systems (DHSVM)
29 VIC Model Calibration Procedure Task 2 - Calibrate VIC model and develop statistical bias correction proceduresVIC Model Calibration ProcedureCalibrate model to simulated streamflow by changing soil parameters (uncertainty in subsurface processes)Compare simulated and historical streamflow using summary statisticse.g. R2, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, annual volume errorUse split sample calibration/validation approachUtilize auto-calibration tool developed by U. of AZ
30 Net Monthly Mean Flow (units of 1000AF) Yakima River at ParkerNet Monthly Mean Flow (units of 1000AF)Naturalized FlowSimulated FlowSummary StatisticsR2: 0.88N-S Efficiency: 0.71Avg. Ann. Flow,Sim/Nat: 1.08Long-term Monthly Mean ( )