1. Modeling Ecological and Economic Benefits of Post-Fire Revegetation in the Great Basin Becky Niell

2. Brief Ecological History of Sagebrush-Steppe Historically co-dominated by native bunchgrasses and sagebrush Cattle grazing (1850’s)  decline of native bunchgrasses & increase in sagebrush Cheatgrass invasion (early 1900’s)  increased fire frequency & changed successional patterns

3. invasion of nonnative plant species loss of native shrublands increased fire frequency loss of native biodiversity reduced forage for livestock increased management costs decreased water quality reduced recreation values Ramifications of Ecological Change

4. Aggressive management is needed …. Revegetation Crested wheatgrass Native seed What to do…… Constrained by lack of information & high costs.

5. Need: “predictive models to forecast the potential effects of various management actions on resources” “economic models that can put restoration costs and benefits into a framework that will support choosing among restoration alternatives as well as explaining benefits to the public and other constituents (BLM 2000).”

6. Markov chain model (quantitative, dynamic model) State-and-transition model (conceptual model) 1.Predict long term vegetation change 2.Predict costs and benefits of revegetation strategies

7. 2. Native Perennial Bunchgrass - Sagebrush 1. Native Perennial Bunchgrass Dominant 3. Sagebrush- Native Perennial Bunchgrass 4. Dense Sagebrush- Sparse Bunchgrass Cheatgrass Understory 5. Dense Sagebrush w/ Cheatgrass Understory 6. Cheatgrass Dominant w/ Sagebrush 7. Cheatgrass w/ Sagebrush seedlings & rootsprouting shrubs 8. Cheatgrass Monoculture 10. Introduced Perennial Bunchgrass - Sagebrush 9. Introduced Perennial Bunchgrass Dominant 11. Sagebrush - Introduced Perennial Bunchgrass Natural Succession Fire Event Fire Event with Revegetation State Transition Wyoming Big Sagebrush Vegetation in the Great Basin with grazing and cheatgrass present. (8-10 inch precipitation zone)

8. Average Transition Times Between Vegetation Types Average Fire Frequencies

9. Markov Chain Model

10. 150 year simulation of Cheatgrass Monoculture: 31 - 41% 25% 35 - 51% 40 - 69%78 - 89% w/ revegetation no revegetation t = 0t = 20t = 150 No reveg. Reveg.

11. Immediate Action Needed!! Without revegetation : Revegetation is not cheap: $25-100+ /acre (1.7 million acres burned in 1999) 40 – 69% of the landscape cheatgrass monoculture or worse in 20 years. 1/20 to 1/3 of landscape burning every year… Costs….

12. So… What are economic and ecological trade-offs of different post-fire revegetation strategies? Reducing cheatgrass monoculture Maintaining native vegetation Minimizing management costs

13. 50 YEAR RESULTS: Area of Cheatgrass Monoculture (% of landscape) Goal 1. Reduce Area of Cheatgrass Monoculture: No revegetation (71%) Native seed (42%) * CWG (42%) * Area of Native Vegetation (% of landscape) Goal 2. Increase Area of Native Vegetation: No revegetation (10%) Native seed (42%) * CWG (10%)

14. Goal 3. Minimize Management Costs: No revegetation ($7.83/ac) Native seed ($6.64/ac) CWG ($6.00/ac) * Average Management Costs ($ / 100 ac.) Management costs = fire suppression costs + reveg. costs Revegetation can cost 1.9 times more per acre than fire suppression and still cost less than no revegetation in the long run!!

15. 1) No revegetation  Ecological and economic disaster 2) Post-fire revegetation was more effective than no revegetation for: achieving ecosystem objectives reducing costs 3) The appropriate choice of seed mix depends on the prioritization of management objectives native seed costs more than crested wheatgrass seed native seed was equally or more effective for achieving each ecosystem goal 4) Post-fire revegetation is not sufficient! Conclusions:

16. Questions??