1. 1 Non-stationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observation and Model 1. Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 2. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 3. Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 Le Kuai 1, Run-Lie Shia 1, Xun Jiang 2, Ka-Kit Tung 3, Yuk L. Yung 1

2. 2 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)  Westward and eastward wind regimes periodically repeat  Average period: 28 months; Inter-annual variability: 22-34 months  Propagate downwards: 1 km/month  Maxima amplitude: ~20 m/s  Westward and eastward wind regimes periodically repeat  Average period: 28 months; Inter-annual variability: 22-34 months  Propagate downwards: 1 km/month  Maxima amplitude: ~20 m/s Baldwin et al. [2001]  Symmetric about equator: 12°  In ozone & T  Transported to polar region  Symmetric about equator: 12°  In ozone & T  Transported to polar region

3. 3 Motivations 1) Underemphasized features:  Synchronization with the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO)  Random quantum jumps of QBO period 2) Debates on the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the QBO period  Anti-correlation/Correlation  Volcanic aerosols  Clear stratosphere  Short observational records 1) Underemphasized features:  Synchronization with the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO)  Random quantum jumps of QBO period 2) Debates on the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the QBO period  Anti-correlation/Correlation  Volcanic aerosols  Clear stratosphere  Short observational records

4. 4 Perpetual Solar Forcing Modeling Experiments Advantages Longer time period Without volcanic influence The solar radiation perpetual condition THINAIR (Two and a Half dimensional INterActive Isentropic Research) Model Chemical-radiative-dynamical model Isentropic vertical coordinate, 29 layers up to 100 km 19 meridional grids from pole to pole The QBO-source term: parameterization

5. 5 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Observation - ERA-40 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Model - Solar cycle varying case - Perpetual solar mean case

6. 6 QBO-SAO Synchronization – Observation (ERA-40) 2-7 hPa region: The presence of both the QBO and SAO Transitions to the QBO below Removed QBO: The w-QBO starts with a w-SAO (Why?) QBO period is an integer multiple of the SAO period

7. 7 Quantum jumps in integral multiples of SAO periods. No correlation/anti- correlation with the 11-year solar cycle Mean QBO period: 27.7 months Period about constant with height QBO-SAO Synchronization – Observation (ERA-40)

8. 8 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Observation - ERA-40 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Model - Solar cycle varying case - Perpetual solar mean case

9. 9 QBO-SAO Synchronization – Model Solar cycle varying case Quantum jump Non-stationary manner 4-SAO5-SAO

10. 10 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Observation - ERA-40 QBO-SAO Synchronization in Model - Solar cycle varying case - Perpetual solar mean case

11. 11 Phase speedKelvin waveRossby-Gravity wave c (m s -1 )25-30 CaseA 1 / (A 1 ) baseline A 2 / (A 2 ) baseline (a)11.1 (b)11 (c)0.911 (d)0.831.05 QBO-SAO Synchronization – Model Perpetual solar mean case The non-stationary jumps in QBO period are not a result of the solar cycle The intrinsic period is determined by wave forcing 4-SAO 5-SAO

12. 12 Conclusions  The initiation of the w-QBO synchronized with the w-SAO  the QBO period in the upper stratosphere should be an integer multiple of the SAO period  The non-stationary jumps under perpetual solar forcing  the intrinsic period of the QBO determined by the wave-mean flow system

13. 13 Solar Cycle Modulation on QBO period? Short term period: Correlation Anti-correlation no relation Need much longer period Le Kuai, Run-Lie Shia, Xun Jiang, Ka-Kit Tung, Yuk L. Yung

14. 14 Acknowledgement  Yuk L. Yung  Run-Lie Shia  Ka-Kit Tung  Xun Jiang  Yuk L. Yung  Run-Lie Shia  Ka-Kit Tung  Xun Jiang

15. 15 Solar cycle modulation on QBO period CasesMean QBO period (a) 15×SC-min24.64 (b) 10×SC-min25.66 (c) SC-mean27.20 (d) 5×SC-max26.67 (e) 10×SC-min28.43 (d) 15×SC-min29.04

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18. 18 The Motivations  The effects on chemical constituents  The effect on the wintertime stratospheric polar vortices and SSW events.  Controversy of the 11-year solar cycle modulation on QBO periods.  The effects on chemical constituents  The effect on the wintertime stratospheric polar vortices and SSW events.  Controversy of the 11-year solar cycle modulation on QBO periods.

19. 19 Previous work: Debate on the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the QBO period Anti-correlation: 1957~1991 (3 major volcanic eruptions) Salby & Callaghan, 2000; Pascoe, et al, 2005; Soukharev & Hood, 2001; Hamilton, 2002; Fischer & Tung, 2007 In-phase relation: 1953~1957 & 1991~2005 (Clear stratosphere) Hamilton, 2002; Fischer & Tung, 2007 Anti- correlation

20. 20 THINAIR model  Solve the continuity, momentum, thermal wind and thermodynamic equations in isentropic surface.  Parameterization for waves  UARS/SOLSTICE spectral irradiance observation for 11-year solar cycle  Dynamics: ground ~ 100 Km  Chemistry: ground ~ 60 Km  Thermal damping rate >30 km, peak at 50 km ~ 2*10 -6 /s <30 km, constant 0.35*10 -6 /s  Solve the continuity, momentum, thermal wind and thermodynamic equations in isentropic surface.  Parameterization for waves  UARS/SOLSTICE spectral irradiance observation for 11-year solar cycle  Dynamics: ground ~ 100 Km  Chemistry: ground ~ 60 Km  Thermal damping rate >30 km, peak at 50 km ~ 2*10 -6 /s <30 km, constant 0.35*10 -6 /s

21. 21 QBO mechanism

22. 22 QBO induced circulation and its modulation of the Column Ozone When the QBO is in the westerly (easterly) phase, there is descending (upwelling) anomalous motion in the tropical stratosphere and upwelling (descending) anomalous motion in the subtropical stratosphere (Plumb and Bell, 1982). This results in more (less) ozone at the equator in the westerly (easterly) QBO phase (Tung and Yang, 1994a).

23. 23 Holton-Tan Mechanism

24. 24 Stream function: easterly – westerly

25. 25 Solar conditionMean QBO period (Month) 3  SC-min 24.00 2  SC-min 24.00 1  SC-min 25.08 SC-mean28.59 1  SC-max 31.85 2  SC-max 36.01 3  SC-max 38.29

26. 26 The thermal wind balance equation Westerly wind warm Easterly wind cold T perturbation~ 3 K at the equator