1. Blessed Plots 2005 The current set of Blessed plots available from the MINOS website are taken from the 5 year plan exercise that occurred in mid-2003. The calculations at that time used selection efficiencies derived from the pdf- based method that forms the basis of the current analysis, but used parameterised smearing functions rather than full event reconstruction. The new plots that I am creating reflect the state of the analysis post-MDC: –Full event reconstruction with R1.16 (MDC was R1.12). Some re-tuning of cuts was required in going from R1.12 to R1.16. –Systematics: The current plots (for 1 and 3e20 pot) have the following systematics applied: –4% overall normalisation error –2% energy scale error –10% NC subtraction error Studies to incorporate x-sec/beam systematics from the MDC-era analysis are underway –Latest Super-K/K2K regions shown for comparison The next few slides preview the new generation of CC Blessed plots. –Initial results: Beam energy choice plots (1e20), sensitivity for 3e20 –Sensitivity for 7.4, 16, 25e20 p.o.t, spectrum ratios –Supplementary plots, pdf and pid distributions

2. Beam energy choice – 1e20 p.o.t.

3. Spectra/ratios – 1e20 p.o.t.

4. Sensitivity – 1 and 3e20 p.o.t.

5. Sensitivity – 7.4e20 p.o.t. Stat errors only.

6. Sensitivity – 25e20 p.o.t.

7. Spectrum ratios – 7.4e20 p.o.t. Spectrum ratio - NC subtraction with 10% error.

8. Spectrum ratios – 25e20 p.o.t.

9. Statistical vs systematic errors Binning effect

10. Sensitivity at higher  m 2 Stat errors only.

11. Sensitivity as a function of  m 2 Stat errors only.

12. Spectra/ratios – 7.4e20 p.o.t. Super-K lower limit on  m 2 Super-K ‘best-fit’  m 2 Super-K upper limit on  m 2

13. Measurement of sin 2 2  What is our ability to constrain sin 2 2  away from 1.0? Do fits at the outer extremity of the Super-K allowed region – at what C.L. can we exclude sin 2 2  Shift caused by non-optimal binning in sin 2 2  Stat errors only.

14. Supplementary plots: Far detector pdfs

15. Far detector PID distribution & cut

16. To do list… Fix obvious ‘problems’ – binning etc. Double, triple check all fits –many of these are very recent… –Check tuning of R1.16 event selection Incorporation of MDC-esque systematics: –Cross-section parameters: ma_qel, ma_res, Disfact(?) –BMPT parameters: alpha_pi, a_pi, A_pi, A_K (or overall normalisation) –Energy scale uncertainties Minor presentation issues –Tick marks on rhs of 2D plots Any other plots –Discrimination between oscillations vs decay/decoherence