1. METR112 Global Climate Change Professor Menglin Jin San Jose State University December 1, 2008

2. Scope for Final Exam: Materials discussed after the mid-term Materials: Lectures (Lectures 8-12) most important! Homework 3 and 4very important Video will be only briefly touched Exam format: half multiple choices half short sentence answers Weight of Final exam: will be scored as 100 points but will be weighted as 35% of the total class grade

3. 3 MET 112 Global Climate Change MET 112 Global Climate Change - Natural Climate Forcing Professor Menglin Jin San Jose State University Outline –  Paleoclimate – temperature and CO2  Natural forcing for temperature change  Features for Glacier and inter-glacier  Activity

4. 4 MET 112 Global Climate Change Paleoclimate A lead to

5. 5 MET 112 Global Climate Change Earth geological time scale Paleo : Greek root means “ancient” Modern age, ice age, last 2 million years Age of dinosaurs From the formation of earth to the evolution of macroscopic hard-shelled animals Animal explosion of diversity

6. 6 MET 112 Global Climate Change Cosmic rays produce C14 C14 has half-life of 5730 years and constitutes about one percent of the carbon in an organism. When an organism dies, its C14 continues to decay. The older the organism, the less C14 C14 and O18 proxy O18 is heavier, harder to evaporate. As temperature decreases (in an ice age), snow deposits contains lessO18 while ocean water and marine organisms (CaCO3) contain more O18 The O18/ O16 ratio or δO18 in ice and marine deposits constitutes a proxy thermometer that indicates ice ages and interglacials. Low O18 in ice indicates it was deposited during cold conditions worldwide, while low O18 in marine deposits indicates warmth C14 dating proxy O18 temperature proxy

8. 8 MET 112 Global Climate Change Natural Climate Change  External Forcing: –  Internal Forcing: – The agent of change is outside of the Earth-atmosphere system The agent of change is within the Earth-atmosphere system itself

9. 9 MET 112 Global Climate Change Continental drift http://www.mun.ca/biology/scarr/Pangaea.html In 1915, German scientist Alfred Wengener first proposed continental drift theory and published book On the Origin of Continents and Oceans Continental drift states: In the beginning, a supercontinent called Pangaea. During Jurrasic, Pangaea breaks up into two smaller supercontinents, Laurasia and Gondwanaland,. By the end of the Cretaceous period, the continents were separating into land masses that look like our modern-day continents

10. 10 MET 112 Global Climate Change Consequences of continental drift on climate Polarward drifting of continents provides land area for ice formation  cold climate Antarctica separated from South America reduced oceanic heat transport  cold climate Joint of North and South America strengthens Gulf Stream and increased oceanic heat transport  warm climate Uplift of Tibetan Plateau  Indian monsoon

11. 11 MET 112 Global Climate Change Warm during Cretaceous Psulsen 2004, nature The Arctic SST was 15 oC or higher in mid and last Cretaceous. Global models can only represent this feature by restoring high level of CO 2 High CO 2 may be responsible for the initiation of the warming Higher water vapor concentration leads to increased latent heat transport to high latitudes Decreased sensible heat transport to high latitudes results from decreased meridional temperature gradient Thermal expansion of sea water increased oceanic heat transport to high latitudes

12. being the last period of the Mesozoic era characterized by continued dominance of reptiles, emergent dominance of angiosperms, diversification of mammals, and the extinction of many types of organisms at the close of the period Cretaceous

13. 13 MET 112 Global Climate Change Short-term forcing: The kinetic energy of thebollide is transferred to the atmosphere sufficient to warm the global mean temperature near the surface by 30 K over the first 30 days The ejecta that are thrown up by the impact return to Earth over several days to weeks produce radiative heating. Long-term forcing: Over several weeks to months, a global cloud of dust obscures the Sun, cooling the Earth’s surface, effectively eliminating photosynthesis and stabilizing the atmosphere to the degree that the hydrologic cycle is cut off. The sum of these effects together could kill most flora. The latter results in a large increase in atmospheric CO2, enabling a large warming of the climate in the period after the dust cloud has settled back to Earth Asteroid impact initializes chain of forcing on climate This hypothesis is proposed to 65 Million years ago for one possible reason that kills the dinosaurs

14. 14 MET 112 Global Climate Change External Forcing  Variations in solar output  Orbital variations  Meteors

15. 15 MET 112 Global Climate Change  A meteor is a bright streak of light that appears briefly in the sky. Observers often call meteors shooting stars or falling stars because they look like stars falling from the sky  Meteor showers –http://www.nasa.gov/worldbook/meteor_worl dbook.html

16. 16 MET 112 Global Climate Change Solar Variations  Sunspots correlate with solar activity  More sunspots, more solar energy  Sunspots are the most familiar type of solar activity.

17. THE SOLAR CYCLE  Sunspot numbers increase and decrease –over an 11-year cycle  Observed for centuries.  Individual spots last from a few hours to months.  Studies show the Sun is in fact about –0.1% brighter when solar activity is high.

18. 18 MET 112 Global Climate Change THE MAUNDER MINIMUM  An absence of sunspots was well observed –from 1645 to 1715.  The so-called “Maunder minimum” coincided with a cool climatic period in Europe and North America: –“Little Ice Age”  The Maunder Minimum was not unique.  Increased medieval activity –correlated with climate change.

19. 19 MET 112 Global Climate Change

20. 20 MET 112 Global Climate Change Little Ice Age  the Little Ice Age to approximately the 16th century to the mid 19th century. It is generally agreed that there were three minima, beginning about 1650, about 1770, and 1850, each separated by slight warming intervalsminima

21. 21 MET 112 Global Climate Change Orbital forcing on climate change James Croll, 19 th century Scottish scientist Coupled orbital variation and snow-albedo feedback to explain and predict ice age He suggested that when orbital eccentricity is high, then winters will tend to be colder when earth is farther from the sun in that season. During the periods of high orbital eccentricity, ice ages occur on 22,000 year cycles in each hemisphere, and alternate between southern and northern hemispheres, lasting approximately 10,000 years each.

22. 22 MET 112 Global Climate Change Further development of orbital forcing by Milutin Milankovitch Mathematically calculated the timing and influence at different latitudes of changes in orbital eccentricity, precession of the equinoxes, and obliquity of the ecliptic. Deep Sea sediments in late 1970’s strengthen Milankovitch cycles theory.

23. 23 MET 112 Global Climate Change Orbital changes  Milankovitch theory:  Serbian astrophysicist in 1920’s who studied effects of solar radiation on the irregularity of ice ages  Variations in the Earth’s orbit –Changes in shape of the earth’s orbit around sun:  Eccentricity (100,000 years) –Wobbling of the earth’s axis of rotation:  Precession (22,000 years) –Changes in the tilt of earth’s axis:  Obliquity (41,000 years)

24. 24 MET 112 Global Climate Change Earth’s orbit: an ellipse Perihelion: place in the orbit closest to the Sun Aphelion: place in the orbit farthest from the Sun

25. 25 MET 112 Global Climate Change : period ~

26. 26 MET 112 Global Climate Change 100,000 years Eccentricity: period ~ 100,000 years

27. 27 MET 112 Global Climate Change : period ~

28. 28 MET 112 Global Climate Change 22,000 years Precession: period ~ 22,000 years

29. 29 MET 112 Global Climate Change 41,000 years Axis tilt: period ~ 41,000 years

30. 30 MET 112 Global Climate Change Small eccentricity --> 7% energy difference between summer and winter Large eccentricity --> 20% energy difference between summer and winter Large eccentricity also changes the length of the seasons Eccentricity affects seasons

31. 31 MET 112 Global Climate Change Internal Forcing  ____________________________  Ocean changes  Chemical changes in the atmosphere (i.e. CO 2 ) –Natural variations Plate tectonics/mountain building Volcanoes

32. METR112-Climate Modeling Basic concepts of climate system Numerical method and parameterization in the model Evaluation and sensitivity study of the model

33. 33 MET 112 Global Climate Change How can you know the future climate and climate change?

34. 34 MET 112 Global Climate Change Climate Model NASA Earth Observatory Glossary http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/glossary.php3?mode=alpha&seg=b&segend=d A quantitative way of representing the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. Models can range from relatively simple to quite comprehensive. Also see General Circulation Model. General Circulation Model (GCM) A global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate system which can be used to simulate human-induced climate change. GCMs are highly complex and they represent the effects of such factors as reflective and absorptive properties of atmospheric water vapor, greenhouse gas concentrations, clouds, annual and daily solar heating, ocean temperatures and ice boundaries. The most recent GCMs include global representations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. Definition

35. 35 MET 112 Global Climate Change http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/images/ocp2003/ocpfy2003-fig3-4.htm The past, present and future of climate models During the last 25 years, different components are added to the climate model to better represent our climate system

36. 36 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ocean: critical roles in climate system Physical properties and role in climate : The biggest water resource on earth Low albedo  excellent absorber of solar radiation One of the primary heat sources for atmosphere High heat capacity  reduces the magnitude of seasonal cycle of atmosphere Important polarward energy transport Large reservoir for chemical elements for atmosphere

37. 37 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ocean: salinity distribution closely relates to precipitation evaporation From Pickard and Emery: Descriptive Physical Oceanography: An Introduction

38. 38 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ocean: annual cycle of mixed layer In winter, SST is low, wind waves are large), mixed layer is deep In summer, (SST high  water stable), mixed layer is shallow. March is nearly isothermal in upper 100 meters. March-August, SST increases, (absorption of solar radiation). Mixed layer  30 m. August-March, net loss of heat, seasonal thermocline eroding due to mixing.

39. 39 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ocean: surface currents – the gyres http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/Water/images/Surface_currents_jpg_image.html Wind drived Coriolis force and location of land affect current pattern Clockwise in NH, anticlockwise in SH The water of the ocean surface moves in a regular pattern called surface ocean currents. The currents are named. In this map, warm currents are shown I n red and cold currents are shown in blue.

40. 40 MET 112 Global Climate Change Surface ocean currents carry heat from place to place in the Earth system. This affects regional climates. The Sun warms water at the equator more thanSun it does at the high latitude polar regions. polar regions. The heat travels in surface currents to higher latitudes.latitudes A current that brings warmth into a high latitude region will make that region’s climate less chilly. Role of ocean surface currents

41. 41 MET 112 Global Climate Change Graph showing a tropical ocean thermocline (depth vs. temperature). Note the rapid change between 400 and 800 meters. Thermocline The thermocline (sometimes metalimnion) is a thin but distinct layer in a large body of fluid (e.g. such as an ocean or lake), in which temperature changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. In the ocean, the thermocline may be thought of as an invisible blanket which separates the upper mixed layer from the calm deep water below.

42. 42 MET 112 Global Climate Change Land: where most human impact are applied Lower boundary of 30% of earth surface lower heat capacity than ocean Higher variability in interaction with atmosphere than ocean surface Moisture exchange Albedo Topography forced momentum change Human impact directly change the land surface Release of CO 2 and other GHGs Release of Aerosol Change the Land surface cover UHI effect

43. 43 MET 112 Global Climate Change The greenhouse gases act as insulation

44. 44 MET 112 Global Climate Change Land: aerosols Aerosol: the small particles in the atmosphere which varying in size, chemical composition, temporal and spatial distribution and life time Source: volcano eruptions, wind lifting of dust, biomass burning, vegetation New result and great uncertainty of the effect of aerosol on climate Small aerosol reflect back the solar radiation Large aerosol can block longwave radiation

45. 45 MET 112 Global Climate Change General climate model – an approach for the future climate Atmospheric GCM is first used in 1950s to predict short-time future weather GCM develops and performs continuously improving since then with helps from updating computational resources and better understanding of atmospheric dynamics Atmospheric and Oceanic Coupled GCMs (e.g., CCSM, HadCM, GISS, CCCS, CFS) are major ways to predict and project future climate A list of GCM and climate modeling programs http://stommel.tamu.edu/~baum/climate_modelin g.html

46. 46 MET 112 Global Climate Change Regional climate model The first generation of regional climate model is developed by Dickinson et.al (1989) and Giorgi et. al (1990) due to the coarse resolution of GCM not able to resolve local process Second generation of RCM (RegCM2) is developed in NCAR (Giorgi et al. 1993) based on MM5 and improved boundary layer parameterizations Third generation of RCM (RegCM3) (Pal et al. 2007) is developed with various improvements in dynamics and physical parameterizations

47. 47 MET 112 Global Climate Change Differences between Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Global Climate Model (GCM) 1.Coverage: for selected region, for the globe 2.Model resolution: finer resolution,coarse resolution 1 km-10km60-250km, or larger 3. Model components are different RCMGCM

48. 48 MET 112 Global Climate Change Climate Model: Equations believed to represent the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the climate system for the scale of interest It can answer “What If” questions for example, what would the climate be if CO2 is doubled? what would the climate be if Greenland ice is all melt? what………………………..if Amazon forest is gone? what…………………………if SF bay area population is doubled?

49. 49 MET 112 Global Climate Change Verify the predictions and statistics of predictions  Compatibility with observations  Various simulations to assure the agreement with basic theoretical understanding Model Inter-comparison studies  Compare different models model evaluation-Model uncertainty

50. 50 MET 112 Global Climate Change MET 112 Global Climate Change - Climate Feedbacks Professor Menglin Jin San Jose State University Outline  Stability/instability  Feedbacks  Examples  Activity

51. 51 MET 112 Global Climate Change Climate Feedbacks  Earth/Atmosphere is delicate balance –incoming and outgoing radiation  Slight changes in balance can cause –Large changes in global climate  These changes can be enhanced or diminished by positive or negative feedbacks  Positive feedback: –initial change reinforced by another process.  Negative feedback: –initial change counteracted by another process.

52. 52 MET 112 Global Climate Change Positive Feedbacks  Processes that accelerate a change –Note: Feedbacks cannot initiate change; they can only alter the pace of change  Important examples: –Ice-albedo feedback –Water-vapor feedback

53. 53 MET 112 Global Climate Change Stability versus instability Stable equilibriumUnstable equilibrium  Stable: –Given a perturbation, the system tends to return to original state  Instability: –Given a perturbation, the system moves to another state.

54. 54 MET 112 Global Climate Change Climate Stability  The Earth’s climate changes as a result of internal/external forcing: –Changes in solar radiation –Changes in the earth’s orbit –Plate tectonics –Volcanoes –Human pollution etc.  These forcings can be thought of as a perturbation (or push) to climate stability.  These changes can be enhanced or diminished by positive or negative feedbacks

55. 55 MET 112 Global Climate Change Climate Feedbacks  Positive feedback: –initial change reinforced by another process.  Negative feedback: –initial change counteracted by another process.

56. 56 MET 112 Global Climate Change Positive Feedbacks  Processes that accelerate a change –Note: Feedbacks cannot initiate change; they can only alter the pace of change  Important climate examples: –Ice-albedo feedback –Water-vapor feedback –Cloud feedback

57. 57 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ice-Albedo Feedback (Cooling) Earth Cools Ice Coverage Increases Albedo Increases Absorption of Sunlight Decreases Initiating Mechanism Somehow this happens Positive Feedback

58. 58 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ice-Albedo Feedback (Warming) Earth Warms Ice Coverage Albedo Absorption of Sunlight Initiating Mechanism

59. 59 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ice-Albedo Feedback (Warming) Earth Warms Ice Coverage Decreases Albedo Decreases Absorption of Sunlight Increases Initiating Mechanism Positive Feedback

60. 60 MET 112 Global Climate Change Water Vapor Feedback (Warming) Earth Warms Evaporation Atmospheric Water Vapor Content Greenhouse Effect Initiating Mechanism

61. 61 MET 112 Global Climate Change Fill in the blanks 1.Increases, increases, increases 2.Increases, decreases, decreases 3.Decreases, increases, increases 4.Decreases, decreases, decreases

62. 62 MET 112 Global Climate Change Water Vapor Feedback (Warming) Earth Warms Evaporation Increases Atmospheric Water Vapor Content Increases Greenhouse Effect Strengthens Initiating Mechanism Positive Feedback

63. 63 MET 112 Global Climate Change Water Vapor Feedback (Cooling) Earth Cools Evaporation Decreases Atmospheric Water Vapor Content Decreases Greenhouse Effect Weakens Initiating Mechanism Positive Feedback

64. 64 MET 112 Global Climate Change Negative Feedbacks  Processes that reduces an imposed change  Important examples: –Cloud feedback –Chemical weathering  Note: Positive/negative feedbacks have no relation to ‘good versus bad’, but are about how a system responds to a change.

65. 65 MET 112 Global Climate Change Possible Role of Cloud in Warming or Cooling the Atmosphere

66. 66 MET 112 Global Climate Change Which feedback is positive? 1.Left 2.Right

67. 67 MET 112 Global Climate Change MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 11 Climate Change: Connections Menglin Jin San Jose State University Outline  Ozone Depletion  Water - Film  Perspectives

68. Ozone Depletion Topics  History of Ozone Depletion  The Ozone Hole: what, where, why?  Ozone into the future

69. 69 MET 112 Global Climate Change History of Ozone Depletion: connection between human and nature  Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) developed in 1940’s and 50’s as: –  1970’s CFCs detected in upper atmosphere. –Many of these have long atmospheric lifetimes: –1974 Rowland and Molina propose that CFC’s can destroy ozone in the stratosphere. –CFC contain chlorine (Cl) – Refrigerants, propellants, fire retardants –(10’s to 100’s of years) Chlorine can destroy ozone rapidly

70. 70 MET 112 Global Climate Change

71. 71 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ozone Hole Recipe Ingredients:  Chlorine gas  Cold Temperatures (~-80C) Instructions:  Allow cold temperatures to form Polar Stratospheric Clouds (1-2 weeks).  Allow time for polar stratospheric clouds to convert chlorine gas into ozone destroying chemicals. (1 month)  Bake ingredients with sunlight.  bingo, a delicious ozone hole! Science interpretation  Chlorine gas is abundant in atmosphere due to CFC’s  Cold Temperatures (~-80C) only occur over Antarctica during the cold winter.  Polar Stratospheric Clouds allow ozone friendly chlorine to be transformed into ozone destroying chlorine.  Ozone depletion then starts when sun returns to Antarctica in the spring  Ozone hole grows from late August through till October.

72. 72 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is being done about ozone depletion?  Montreal Protocol ~ (1988) international agreement to reduce ozone depleting chemicals  Further amendments accelerated the phase out. –Developed countries have switched to HCFC’s (more ozone friendly!) –Developing countries have until 2004/5 to phase out CFC’s.

73. 73 MET 112 Global Climate Change The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of substances believed to be responsibletreatyozone layer for ozone depletion.ozone depletion The treaty was opened for signature on September 16, 1987 and entered into force on January 1, 1989 followed by a first meeting in Helsinki, May 1989.September 161987 January 11989 Montreal Protocol

74. 74 MET 112 Global Climate Change Is the Montreal Protocol working? Seems to be!!! Recent observations indicate that chlorine is beginning to decline in the atmosphere. Kyoto protocol uses similar approach Start off with small achievable steps Further amendments accelerate reductions

75. 75 MET 112 Global Climate Change  Model simulations suggest: – atmospheric chlorine will return to pre-80’s level __________________. –Uncertainties still remain:  ____________________ In next 50 years or so Influence of global warming Phase out of CFC’s A slow ozone recovery should follow decreasing chlorine concentrations!!! What are predictions for the future?

76. 76 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is the connection between ozone depletion and global warming?  No direct connection between these environmental issues.  Global warming produces: –Tropospheric warming & –Stratospheric cooling  However: Global warming may enhance ozone depletion

77. 77 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is the connection between ozone depletion and global warming?  An increase in greenhouse gases traps more heat and thus –The stratosphere tends to cool (stratospheric cooling)  Therefore, if the stratosphere cools, then  Ozone hole chemistry –PSCs will likely increase –So slightly more ozone depletion  Global warming will delay recovery of ozone layer

78. 78 MET 112 Global Climate Change Necessities for life Air Water Water Food Food

79. 79 MET 112 Global Climate Change Drinkable Water (Freshwater)  Of all the water in the world, 97% is sea water (salt)  Freshwater occupies only 3% of the Earth’s water  Of the freshwater, 77% of freshwater is locked up as ice.  Water is the most important natural resources in the world.

80. 80 MET 112 Global Climate Change Drinkable Water (Freshwater)  The predictions of climate change suggest that access to fresh water will be made more difficult –Changes in location and quantity of precipitation –Raising sea levels

81. 81 MET 112 Global Climate Change Economic interest Water "One of the world's great business opportunities. It promises to be to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th." - Fortune Magazine

82. 82 MET 112 Global Climate Change Lecture Summary  Ozone depletion is good example of science and policy working together to manage a global environmental concern.  The Ozone hole is produced by unique combination of weather ___________ and chemistry (___________).  The Ozone hole develops during _______ over Antarctica.  Global ozone trends are ___________ except in the tropics,  Global ozone trends are expected to recover in next ___ or more years. Stratospheric ozone: decreasing, tropospheric ozone increasing

83. 83 MET 112 Global Climate Change Lecture Summary  Ozone depletion is good example of science and policy working together to manage a global environmental concern.  The Ozone hole is produced by unique combination of weather ___________ and chemistry (___ chlorine ________).  The Ozone hole develops during __ spring _____ over Antarctica.  Global ozone trends are __ negative _________ except in the tropics,  Global ozone trends are expected to recover in next ___ or more years. cold temps 50 Stratospheric ozone: increasing, tropospheric ozone decreasing

84. 84 MET 112 Global Climate Change MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12 Controls on Climate Change Professor Menglin Jin Outline:  IPCC  CA Efforts on Energy  Kyoto Treat

85. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time- frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’

86. 86 MET 112 Global Climate Change IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC) 2007

87. 87 MET 112 Global Climate Change IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat- trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century. (IPCC) 2007

88. 88 MET 112 Global Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” Human Responsibility for Climate Change Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

89. 89 MET 112 Global Climate Change Emission Scenarios  SRES (special report on emission scenarios)

90. 90 MET 112 Global Climate Change Scenarios

91. 91 MET 112 Global Climate Change CO 2 concentrations (amount)

92. 92 MET 112 Global Climate Change Future Predictions: Temperature

93. 93 MET 112 Global Climate Change Notes on Temperature Projections   Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.  Each bar on right represent range of warming produced –

94. 94 MET 112 Global Climate Change Notes on Temperature Projections  Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.  Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.  Each bar on right represent range of warming produced –by models of differing sensitivies for a specific scenario.

95. 95 MET 112 Global Climate Change Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C

96. 96 MET 112 Global Climate Change Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C

97. 97 MET 112 Global Climate Change Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

98. 98 MET 112 Global Climate Change Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

99. 99 MET 112 Global Climate Change Sea Level

100. 100 MET 112 Global Climate Change Sea Level Rise Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

101. 101 MET 112 Global Climate Change

102. 102 MET 112 Global Climate Change 1.What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 2.What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning? 3.What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal? 4.If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy? 5.Where does most residential energy come from? Questions

103. 103 MET 112 Global Climate Change Mitigation of climate change  Mitigation: –Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts. Mitigation can include : avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; rectifying the impact by repairing or rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment

104. 104 MET 112 Global Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. over the five-year period 2008-2012. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on entered into force on 16 February 2005

105. 105 MET 112 Global Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol  A United Nations sponsored effort: –Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. –The Protocol will go into force after 1.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. 2.The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. –Current status:  156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO 2.  US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO 2 emitted)  Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

106. 106 MET 112 Global Climate Change Kyoto Targets  Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990  Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).  Calculated as an average –over the five-year period of 2008-12.  Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCscarbon dioxidemethanenitrous oxidesulfur hexafluoride HFCsPFCs

107. 107 MET 112 Global Climate Change Kyoto Targets  National targets –European Union - 8% below 1990 levels –USA - 7% below 1990 –Japan - 6% below 1990 –Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) –Australia 8% over 1990 levels) –Developing countries (no target)  China, India etc.

108. 108 MET 112 Global Climate Change Kyoto Targets: Developing countries  The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1.The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –has originated in developed countries; 2.Per capita emissions in developing countries –are still relatively low; 3.The share of global emissions originating in developing countries –will grow to meet their social and development needs.

109. 109 MET 112 Global Climate Change The Kyoto Mechanisms  Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms. mechanisms  The Kyoto mechanisms are:  Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" Emissions trading  Clean development mechanism (CDM) Clean development mechanism (CDM)  Joint implementation (JI). Joint implementation (JI)

110. 110 MET 112 Global Climate Change Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms  Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012  Countries can meet their commitments together  Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.  Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets  Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

111. 111 MET 112 Global Climate Change Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.   Countries also receive carbon credits through –

112. 112 MET 112 Global Climate Change Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.  Countries also receive carbon credits through –clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) –carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

113. 113 MET 112 Global Climate Change CO 2 emissions for various scenarios Kyoto’s eventual goal

114. 114 MET 112 Global Climate Change

115. 115 MET 112 Global Climate Change Class Participation  By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave days? Why?  What are the differences between the low emission and high emission cases in terms of heat wave days by 2090 for city Riverside? How about city LA?  How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in 2050 and 2090? Your name_________

116. 116 MET 112 Global Climate Change