1. AMMA DRY-RUN 22 August – 2 September 2005 Comments from J-Ph Lafore (CNRM) and an example validation for 26/08/2005

2. Cases: an active period! Weak convective days –24, 27, 30 August Long-lived MCS events –27-30 August; –30 August – 3 Sept; –2 Sept. – 5 Sept Convection to N of Mali in 3 cases

3. General impressions Models struggle with convection even at 24 hours (no surprise) Generally harder to predict suppressed convection LAM not necessarily better at convective prediction than Global (but better structure) Active hurricanes downstream!!

4. OBSERVATIONS

5. NOAA-CPC Precipitation estimate valid 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC

7. Precipitation SYNOP reports valid for 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC

8. 24 hour cumulated FORECAST

9. (a) (c) (b) (d) 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826 00UTC-24UTC) for: (a) ARPEGE, (b) ARPEGE Tropiques, ( c ) ECMWF, (d) UK globalModel.

10. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for ECMWF model (Initialization: 20050821-12UTC).

11. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for MESONH model.(Initialization: ECMWF 20050823-00UTC).

12. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for NOAA/NCEP model (Initialization: NCEP/GDAS 20050826-00UTC).

13. IPSL/LMDz GCM model at ~70km (forced by NCEP analysis) 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC ETA model (forced by NCEP analysis)

14. 6 hour cumulated FORECAST

15. 6-hour cumulated precipitation INITIAL CONDITIONS: ALADIN NORAF 20050826 – 00UTC 00-0606-12 12-1818-24

16. INITIAL CONDITIONS: UK Global 20050825 – 18UTC 00-0606-12 12-1818-24

17. ECMWF Global model: 20050826 00-0606-12 12-1818-24

18. IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826 00-0606-12 12-1818-24

19. IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826 at 12UTC

20. 20050823 06UTC-12UTC 20050823 12UTC-18UTC 20050823 18UTC-24UTC INITIAL CONDITIONS: ECMWF 20050823 – 00UTC